5 ms·

Used cars, sure, but you're often either paying for someone else's problem or losing out on modern safety features. For new cars, especially with the tax credi

by judge2020 3y ago

Used cars, sure, but you're often either paying for someone else's problem or losing out on modern safety features. For new cars, especially with the tax credit (which most americans qualify for), EVs are cheaper. That's not even factoring in maintenance costs over 5 years nor savings from charging at home (of course not everyone can charge at home).

fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
Yeah, I made a spreadsheet about this, and (at California gas prices) my Tesla breaks even with most ICE cars surprisingly quickly (just gas costs, add in maintenance and it’s even better)
- phs318u 3y ago
  Would you mind sharing this (if it doesn't contain any personal info).
  - fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
    The formula is pretty straightforward, the sheet itself is a bit of a mess. Take the price you pay for each car; take your number of miles driven a year; use the mpg and kWh/mi to calculate the operational cost of each for a year (I think I used a conservative value of like 180 kWh/mi for my 3). Then multiply by the number of years owned and add the purchase price.
    - itsoktocry 3y ago
      Let me guess: you are low-balling your Tesla maintenance costs, because you haven't yet had an issue. Well, guess what, when you do, dealing with it will be expensive. RepairPal says the average annual cost to maintain a Model 3 is twice that of a Honda Civic.
      - fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
        I’m not counting maintenance for either vehicle, though: and, over the expected ownership time, I save enough with electricity for the Tesla to pay for a $16k battery pack replacement (and, over the four years I’ve owned the tesla, I’ve probably spent like $2000 on Tesla maintenance and $6k on maintaining the Odyssey, so I think I’ll save enough on regular maintenance to break even when I have to replace the battery)
- hnthrowaway0328 3y ago
  The thing about EVs is that they are new so I'm not sure how to calculate maintenance cost reliably. I'm thinking about after 8-10 years. Some ICEs can reliably run "forever" if well maintained, like some Toyota ones.
  - fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
    They’re not _that_ new anymore: the original Model S was sold in 2012. So, while they’re still young compared to ICE cars, we still have at least a decade of data on them. I do agree, though, that there’s some novelty risk but (a) my numbers only include gas (and I’m not factoring my solar savings in at all because I ran the numbers before I installed solar) and (b) I’m spending quite a bit every year to maintain my Odyssey and basically $0 to maintain my Model 3 (only exception is I’ve changed the tires once, but I’ve gone through a couple sets of van tires in the same time period for a similar total expenditure). I think that I’d come out ahead even if I had to replace the battery (or sold the car when this is needed). Also, the depreciation on my Tesla over the last four years is much more in my favor than the van’s depreciation in the same time.
    - _ea1k 3y ago
      And those old Model S cars have had high battery replacement rates, often at relatively low mileage. The 3 and Y seem to be doing better, as well as S/X after 2016, but those are still fairly new.
      - fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
        Although, there’s a question of under warranty vs. out of warranty replacement here: replacing the battery under warranty doesn’t really add to the TCO; also, I assume the battery packs across the Tesla models are similar enough that newer cars incorporate the learnings from older models.
- vladgur 3y ago
  I’d be curious to see your numbers. Based on my electrical costs of about $0.35/kwh and 87 gas holding steady below $5 for nearly a year, 1000 miles driven in my real-world 45 mpg Camry hybrid costs about $110 while the same in Tesla Model Y costs about $95. Tesla however is $10k to $15k more. The only maintenance my Camry will need for the next decade or so that does not exist in Tesla is regular fluid changes which amortize to about $200 per year Ps in SF Bay Area and don’t qualify for tax incentives
  - jhatax 3y ago
    I agree. In the SF Bay Area, especially in PG&E’s regions where average KWh is $0.40, a hybrid makes more economical sense and it isn’t even close. The math is skewed even further once you add the extra $500 you pay for CA annual registration for an EV vs. Hybrid (personal experience, Mach-E vs. Accord Hybrid).
    - BeefDinnerPurge 3y ago
      Or you exploit the many many free level 2 chargers around the region. But anywhere else, a PHEV rocks.
  - abstract_put 3y ago
    > Based on my electrical costs of about $0.35/kwh Definitely it's massively less compelling in areas with extremely high electricity costs. That's pretty much as expensive as electricity gets in North America, isn't it? I think it's significantly more compelling basically anywhere else. E.g. in Ontario where I live, if you're set up appropriately and charge between 11pm and 7am it's $0.028/kWh (CAD), i.e. less than 3 cents per kWh, or roughly 1/35th the price you're paying. If I've done my math right, that's works out to be less than 2$ USD per 1000km? A difference of 108$/1000km is 1728$/year for the statistically average-driving Ontarian. Adds up pretty fast!
  - jerkstate 3y ago
    SF Bay Area is an outlier for electricity pricing, average US rate is less than half that according to: https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices... and off-peak rates are typically less than average where time of use metering is in effect (my off-peak rate is less than 1/3 of your rate). My family's EV costs about 1/4 to 1/3 as much per mile to fuel as our ICE (and I typically drive the EV with more spirit). For me, over 100k miles, I expect to save about $10k in fuel costs. I agree that the savings isn't as substantial to you because of your extremely high electric rates, but for many, a standard model 3 or y will offer lower TCO than a camry.
- TJSomething 3y ago
  I've been considering an EV, but this got me to look at the break even point for how much I actually drive (5,000 mi / year), my gas mileage (30 mpg), my offpeak power costs ($0.20 / kWh), and typical gas prices here ($4.50 / gal). It would take me about 20 years to save $25,000, which is about the difference between my current car and a Tesla. That said, I probably shouldn't consider a Tesla, since it occasionally snows pretty hard here in Northern Nevada and the Tesla's snow handling is not the best.
SoftTalker 3y ago
The point is EVs cost more (sticker price) than gas cars and have less utility. I'd consider an EV for my daily commute if I could buy a new one for $10K. I think that's a reasonable price for a small car that has maybe a 100 mile range. But automakers are offering $50K cars and above that don't fully replace gas cars. No thanks.
- judge2020 3y ago
  > (sticker price) The sticker price is just the "obvious" price you see when it comes to owning a vehicle. But everything else still matters, routine maintenance and gas alike. Ignoring it only sets yourself up for being surprised when those bills come due. > I'd consider an EV for my daily commute if I could buy a new one for $10K. I'd consider an ICE vehicle if I could buy a new one for $10K. Have a suggestion?
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    In China, you can find new ICEs and EVs for less than $10k, not exactly road legal in the states, but they exist.
  - SoftTalker 3y ago
    > I'd consider an ICE vehicle if I could buy a new one for $10K. Have a suggestion? No, but any ICE vehicle will not have the limitations of an EV. I was saying I might accept those if it were cheap enough.
  - Sleaker 3y ago
    We are still pretty close to this even with inflation, cheapest is around $16k sticker from a quick search. I remember not too long ago Hyundai was giving cars for sub 10k new.
    - wharvle 3y ago
      My in-laws bought two new—yes, new—ICE cars (some Chevy model, I think) for under $10k, total, not each, 12ish years ago. Car prices have gone totally bananas since then. I hate whatever’s happening with that.
FpUser 3y ago
>"Used cars, sure, but you're often either paying for someone else's problem or losing out on modern safety features." Even though I can afford it I've never bought new car. Call me lucky but I did not feel like I was paying for somebody else's problems either. All my cars worked fine for me. Some maintenance and repairs but nothing major / expensive. For example used Grand Caravan I paid $5K for on the auction cost me another $1K to put in proper order and then served me faithfully 10 years. Only got rid of it because the rust had taken the best of it.
itsoktocry 3y ago
>especially with the tax credit (which most americans qualify for), EVs are cheaper. Yes, if other people have to contribute their money to the purchase of your new car, it's cheaper for you. >That's not even factoring in maintenance costs over 5 years Well, the data says that Teslas have some of the highest costs of ownership in the first five years.
- yazaddaruvala 3y ago
  > Well, the data says that Teslas have some of the highest costs of ownership in the first five years. Links please? I know a lot of Tesla owners and they have all said differently.

fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago

Yeah, I made a spreadsheet about this, and (at California gas prices) my Tesla breaks even with most ICE cars surprisingly quickly (just gas costs, add in maintenance and it’s even better)

phs318u 3y ago
Would you mind sharing this (if it doesn't contain any personal info).
- fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
  The formula is pretty straightforward, the sheet itself is a bit of a mess. Take the price you pay for each car; take your number of miles driven a year; use the mpg and kWh/mi to calculate the operational cost of each for a year (I think I used a conservative value of like 180 kWh/mi for my 3). Then multiply by the number of years owned and add the purchase price.
  - itsoktocry 3y ago
    Let me guess: you are low-balling your Tesla maintenance costs, because you haven't yet had an issue. Well, guess what, when you do, dealing with it will be expensive. RepairPal says the average annual cost to maintain a Model 3 is twice that of a Honda Civic.
    - fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
      I’m not counting maintenance for either vehicle, though: and, over the expected ownership time, I save enough with electricity for the Tesla to pay for a $16k battery pack replacement (and, over the four years I’ve owned the tesla, I’ve probably spent like $2000 on Tesla maintenance and $6k on maintaining the Odyssey, so I think I’ll save enough on regular maintenance to break even when I have to replace the battery)
hnthrowaway0328 3y ago
The thing about EVs is that they are new so I'm not sure how to calculate maintenance cost reliably. I'm thinking about after 8-10 years. Some ICEs can reliably run "forever" if well maintained, like some Toyota ones.
- fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
  They’re not _that_ new anymore: the original Model S was sold in 2012. So, while they’re still young compared to ICE cars, we still have at least a decade of data on them. I do agree, though, that there’s some novelty risk but (a) my numbers only include gas (and I’m not factoring my solar savings in at all because I ran the numbers before I installed solar) and (b) I’m spending quite a bit every year to maintain my Odyssey and basically $0 to maintain my Model 3 (only exception is I’ve changed the tires once, but I’ve gone through a couple sets of van tires in the same time period for a similar total expenditure). I think that I’d come out ahead even if I had to replace the battery (or sold the car when this is needed). Also, the depreciation on my Tesla over the last four years is much more in my favor than the van’s depreciation in the same time.
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    And those old Model S cars have had high battery replacement rates, often at relatively low mileage. The 3 and Y seem to be doing better, as well as S/X after 2016, but those are still fairly new.
    - fiddlerwoaroof 3y ago
      Although, there’s a question of under warranty vs. out of warranty replacement here: replacing the battery under warranty doesn’t really add to the TCO; also, I assume the battery packs across the Tesla models are similar enough that newer cars incorporate the learnings from older models.
vladgur 3y ago
I’d be curious to see your numbers. Based on my electrical costs of about $0.35/kwh and 87 gas holding steady below $5 for nearly a year, 1000 miles driven in my real-world 45 mpg Camry hybrid costs about $110 while the same in Tesla Model Y costs about $95. Tesla however is $10k to $15k more. The only maintenance my Camry will need for the next decade or so that does not exist in Tesla is regular fluid changes which amortize to about $200 per year Ps in SF Bay Area and don’t qualify for tax incentives
- jhatax 3y ago
  I agree. In the SF Bay Area, especially in PG&E’s regions where average KWh is $0.40, a hybrid makes more economical sense and it isn’t even close. The math is skewed even further once you add the extra $500 you pay for CA annual registration for an EV vs. Hybrid (personal experience, Mach-E vs. Accord Hybrid).
  - BeefDinnerPurge 3y ago
    Or you exploit the many many free level 2 chargers around the region. But anywhere else, a PHEV rocks.
- abstract_put 3y ago
  > Based on my electrical costs of about $0.35/kwh Definitely it's massively less compelling in areas with extremely high electricity costs. That's pretty much as expensive as electricity gets in North America, isn't it? I think it's significantly more compelling basically anywhere else. E.g. in Ontario where I live, if you're set up appropriately and charge between 11pm and 7am it's $0.028/kWh (CAD), i.e. less than 3 cents per kWh, or roughly 1/35th the price you're paying. If I've done my math right, that's works out to be less than 2$ USD per 1000km? A difference of 108$/1000km is 1728$/year for the statistically average-driving Ontarian. Adds up pretty fast!
- jerkstate 3y ago
  SF Bay Area is an outlier for electricity pricing, average US rate is less than half that according to: https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices_selectedareas_table.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/data/averageenergyprices... and off-peak rates are typically less than average where time of use metering is in effect (my off-peak rate is less than 1/3 of your rate). My family's EV costs about 1/4 to 1/3 as much per mile to fuel as our ICE (and I typically drive the EV with more spirit). For me, over 100k miles, I expect to save about $10k in fuel costs. I agree that the savings isn't as substantial to you because of your extremely high electric rates, but for many, a standard model 3 or y will offer lower TCO than a camry.
TJSomething 3y ago
I've been considering an EV, but this got me to look at the break even point for how much I actually drive (5,000 mi / year), my gas mileage (30 mpg), my offpeak power costs ($0.20 / kWh), and typical gas prices here ($4.50 / gal). It would take me about 20 years to save $25,000, which is about the difference between my current car and a Tesla. That said, I probably shouldn't consider a Tesla, since it occasionally snows pretty hard here in Northern Nevada and the Tesla's snow handling is not the best.

SoftTalker 3y ago

The point is EVs cost more (sticker price) than gas cars and have less utility. I'd consider an EV for my daily commute if I could buy a new one for $10K. I think that's a reasonable price for a small car that has maybe a 100 mile range. But automakers are offering $50K cars and above that don't fully replace gas cars. No thanks.

judge2020 3y ago
> (sticker price) The sticker price is just the "obvious" price you see when it comes to owning a vehicle. But everything else still matters, routine maintenance and gas alike. Ignoring it only sets yourself up for being surprised when those bills come due. > I'd consider an EV for my daily commute if I could buy a new one for $10K. I'd consider an ICE vehicle if I could buy a new one for $10K. Have a suggestion?
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  In China, you can find new ICEs and EVs for less than $10k, not exactly road legal in the states, but they exist.
- SoftTalker 3y ago
  > I'd consider an ICE vehicle if I could buy a new one for $10K. Have a suggestion? No, but any ICE vehicle will not have the limitations of an EV. I was saying I might accept those if it were cheap enough.
- Sleaker 3y ago
  We are still pretty close to this even with inflation, cheapest is around $16k sticker from a quick search. I remember not too long ago Hyundai was giving cars for sub 10k new.
  - wharvle 3y ago
    My in-laws bought two new—yes, new—ICE cars (some Chevy model, I think) for under $10k, total, not each, 12ish years ago. Car prices have gone totally bananas since then. I hate whatever’s happening with that.

FpUser 3y ago

>"Used cars, sure, but you're often either paying for someone else's problem or losing out on modern safety features." Even though I can afford it I've never bought new car. Call me lucky but I did not feel like I was paying for somebody else's problems either. All my cars worked fine for me. Some maintenance and repairs but nothing major / expensive. For example used Grand Caravan I paid $5K for on the auction cost me another $1K to put in proper order and then served me faithfully 10 years. Only got rid of it because the rust had taken the best of it.

itsoktocry 3y ago

>especially with the tax credit (which most americans qualify for), EVs are cheaper. Yes, if other people have to contribute their money to the purchase of your new car, it's cheaper for you. >That's not even factoring in maintenance costs over 5 years Well, the data says that Teslas have some of the highest costs of ownership in the first five years.

yazaddaruvala 3y ago
> Well, the data says that Teslas have some of the highest costs of ownership in the first five years. Links please? I know a lot of Tesla owners and they have all said differently.