3 ms·
That graph is impressively steep… ~18 million to ~9 million in ~6 years! That’s a massive cultural shift in a really short timescale, most birth rate changes ar
by dalyons 3y ago
That graph is impressively steep… ~18 million to ~9 million in ~6 years! That’s a massive cultural shift in a really short timescale, most birth rate changes are slow declines over decades. I wonder what changed in 2015 to start this ?
- huytersd 3y agoYou should look at India’s. It goes from 6 kids per woman to 1.9 in under 30 years.
- dalyons 3y ago30 years is a generation, it’s a timescale that doesn’t surprise me as much given how much macro economic change there has been. 5 years feels like yesterday, and china is not materially different economically in that time AFAIK
- hotpotamus 3y agoThe article says they actually got rid of the one child policy in 2015 thinking it would change the decline, but obviously it did not work that way. It doesn't seem like China is any different from other modern country in this regard; fertility is on the decline almost everywhere. I've become fairly convinced that it's the fall of religion that has precipitated it - the "Death of God" as Nietzsche called it. Personally speaking, the thought of working a 996 style job (that could be mostly bullshit) all my life does not really inspire much desire to have children to perpetuate that economic meat-grinder. It'd be nice to think there was something more to life, but it seems illusive.
- maxglute 3y agoMassive expansion in tertiary capacity and increase in tertiary enrollment delaying births (25% in 2010 - 60% in 2022). I'd expect slow TFR rebound as the early cohorts finish school and settle into new jobs* in a few years, but still net decline in fertilitiy due to higher education. IMO not many educated or urbanized couples wants more than 2 kids.
- dalyons 3y agoThat’s a really interesting insight!