5 ms·

There's a 50% chance that this doctor failed probability

throw0101d 3y ago
Cue 50-50 scene from the movie The Naked Gun: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLbuyWBCzQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLbuyWBCzQ
- someplaceguy 3y ago
  Also relevant (hilarious movie btw): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrezGdru6TQ&t=20s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrezGdru6TQ&t=20s And an analysis of the scene: https://puzzlewocky.com/fallacies/the-50-50-fallacy/ https://puzzlewocky.com/fallacies/the-50-50-fallacy/
Dalewyn 3y ago
I recall the original context was that telling a patient to not worry because the chance of success is high isn't actually helpful, because the objective argument doesn't take into account the patient's personal perspective. I've since extrapolated that to meaning that objective measures cannot always tell or respect the whole story, because personal perspectives can bowdlerize everything down to life or death or a 50% chance. To put it another way: Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one.
- mannykannot 3y ago
  > Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one. It's significant comfort in all those flights where no crashes occur, and for most of the time up to and during those that do end in crashes. Anyone who really believes they are about to embark on an activity having a 0.5 probability of killing them should put their affairs in order, but then, by the same reasoning, there's a 0.5 probability of dying while doing that! I believe the fallacy here is using an uninformative uniform prior when a much better, empirically-verified one is available.
- kergonath 3y ago
  > To put it another way: Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one. Sure. It’s also callous and insensitive, which is why we don’t tend to do that. But saying to the vast majority who are never going to experience a plane crash (a number larger than the number of victims by a few orders of magnitude) that it’s a coin toss is at least not very smart.
- staticman2 3y ago
  >because the objective argument doesn't take into account the patient's personal perspective. Suppose a friend is afraid of crossing the street. Would it be more helpful from a personal perspective POV to tell your friend the odds of being hit by a car, or to make up the fact that you are just as likely to die today crossing that street as not dying? Because the latter strikes me as unhelpful from either an objective perspective or a personal perspective.
- spywaregorilla 3y ago
  The purpose of probability is not to give you good feelings
tjungblut 3y ago
I had a dentist explain to me that my lip could go numb with a 50% chance after my wisdom teeth removal with that exact explanation just two minutes before the surgery. I was infuriated, turns out I was on the lucky side of her coin.
- kergonath 3y ago
  I could be wrong, but I really don’t think permanent loss of sensitivity is anywhere that high. Though it sounds low for temporary loss, but then it goes away after a couple of hours or so.
  - tjungblut 3y ago
    Yep, that was for permanent loss.
  - vel0city 3y ago
    It can really depend on how badly impacted the wisdom teeth are. There's apparently a lot of nerve bundles around the back of the jaw bone. If they really need to dig in there to get it out there's a risk. I've had multiple dentists talk to me about my wisdom teeth and all have talked about there being some significant risks with mine.

Cue 50-50 scene from the movie The Naked Gun: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLbuyWBCzQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLLbuyWBCzQ

someplaceguy 3y ago
Also relevant (hilarious movie btw): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrezGdru6TQ&t=20s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrezGdru6TQ&t=20s And an analysis of the scene: https://puzzlewocky.com/fallacies/the-50-50-fallacy/ https://puzzlewocky.com/fallacies/the-50-50-fallacy/

Dalewyn 3y ago

I recall the original context was that telling a patient to not worry because the chance of success is high isn't actually helpful, because the objective argument doesn't take into account the patient's personal perspective. I've since extrapolated that to meaning that objective measures cannot always tell or respect the whole story, because personal perspectives can bowdlerize everything down to life or death or a 50% chance. To put it another way: Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one.

mannykannot 3y ago
> Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one. It's significant comfort in all those flights where no crashes occur, and for most of the time up to and during those that do end in crashes. Anyone who really believes they are about to embark on an activity having a 0.5 probability of killing them should put their affairs in order, but then, by the same reasoning, there's a 0.5 probability of dying while doing that! I believe the fallacy here is using an uninformative uniform prior when a much better, empirically-verified one is available.
kergonath 3y ago
> To put it another way: Telling someone they have a negligible chance of being in an aviation accident is worthless comfort if they end up in one. Sure. It’s also callous and insensitive, which is why we don’t tend to do that. But saying to the vast majority who are never going to experience a plane crash (a number larger than the number of victims by a few orders of magnitude) that it’s a coin toss is at least not very smart.
staticman2 3y ago
>because the objective argument doesn't take into account the patient's personal perspective. Suppose a friend is afraid of crossing the street. Would it be more helpful from a personal perspective POV to tell your friend the odds of being hit by a car, or to make up the fact that you are just as likely to die today crossing that street as not dying? Because the latter strikes me as unhelpful from either an objective perspective or a personal perspective.
spywaregorilla 3y ago
The purpose of probability is not to give you good feelings

tjungblut 3y ago

I had a dentist explain to me that my lip could go numb with a 50% chance after my wisdom teeth removal with that exact explanation just two minutes before the surgery. I was infuriated, turns out I was on the lucky side of her coin.

kergonath 3y ago
I could be wrong, but I really don’t think permanent loss of sensitivity is anywhere that high. Though it sounds low for temporary loss, but then it goes away after a couple of hours or so.
- tjungblut 3y ago
  Yep, that was for permanent loss.
- vel0city 3y ago
  It can really depend on how badly impacted the wisdom teeth are. There's apparently a lot of nerve bundles around the back of the jaw bone. If they really need to dig in there to get it out there's a risk. I've had multiple dentists talk to me about my wisdom teeth and all have talked about there being some significant risks with mine.