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Economy continues to slide? US Q3 GDP was up +4.9% the economy is about as good as it has ever been.

by mulderc 3y ago

wyre 3y ago
There is more to an economy than GDP.
- nindalf 3y ago
  Yeah, like unemployment, inflation, wages and so on, all of which are pretty good in Jan 2024.
Loughla 3y ago
Why, then, is that not the reality for every day people?
- ForRealsies 3y ago
  [dead]
- edgyquant 3y ago
  Because there’s more to the average persons life than overall GDP growth.
- kasey_junk 3y ago
  This is actually a very big topic in economics right now. By our usual metrics (not just gdp but many others) the economy is great. The top theories on why this hasn’t translated to how people feel are a) the metrics we collect aren’t that relevant to the lived experience (but if so why have they traditionally correlated to people’s feelings) b) the metrics have measurement error (but if so why can’t we find it?) or c) people’s feelings are more influenced by other things than the economy (such as their media consumption, societal changes, etc) and that carries over into the “vibes” measurement. But, by the measures we have about the broad economy things are pretty good.
  - Geisterde 3y ago
    Serious question, in what circles are those top theories? I am sure C plays into it, and I know I live in a bubble; but I would expect any list of this type to include something like: large scale upward wealth transfers from bailouts/stimulus in 2008/2009 and covid, which has resulted in zombie companies taking over major sectors of the economy; or, trade deficits caused by our money being the global reserve asset have hollowed out the industrial base, obviously economically but also spiritually as people have lost the jobs that made them feel like they contribute to society. Im not trying to get at you or something, I just genuinely want to know where people are talking like this, what do they think about, how do they see things, thats all.
    - kasey_junk 3y ago
      It’s a very common topic in lots of venues. Here is the economist talking about it: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/09/07/the-pandemic-has-broken-a-closely-followed-survey-of-sentiment https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/09/07/the-pand... But as a for instance on one of the things you mentioned, our trade imbalance is less now than it was in the early 2000s. US industrial jobs have been on a negative trend for more than 50 years! That doesn’t correlate with the split between sentiment and other metrics either.
      - Geisterde 3y ago
        Thanks for the link; I find myself more sympathetic to the corollary of your second metric, that we are at a 50 year low in industrial work, to be a viable explanation; though ill admit my surpise that trade defecits are lower than the early 2000s, that ill need to dig into more.
        kasey_junk 3y ago
        There are more workers employed in manufacturing in real terms now than 20 years ago as well. In a % of population basis that’s not true so maybe there is some effect on sentiment based on the % of people employed in that sector? I’ve not seen that put forth as a hypothesis anywhere but I’m certainly not an expert.
nindalf 3y ago
Vibecession. People are convinced there's a recession because everyone else says so.
- Atheros 3y ago
  What is Gen Z, along with the other terminally-online older people going to do with themselves if there actually is ever another recession? Gen Z'ers entire teenage and adult lives have been in a period of huge economic growth which continues today. They have no concept of how bad a recession actually feels. I suspect that this is a contributing factor to the vibecession: younger adults don't know what recessions feel like. If this is the level of complaining happening during an economic expansion, what are they going to do in a contraction? When wages drop precipitously? When they send out hundreds of resumes and hear back on none of them? When having unemployed friends becomes ubiquitous? Or maybe the vibecession isn't real at all and virtually everyone saying we're in a recession doesn't actually believe it and is just virtue signaling support for poorer people?
mcmcmc 3y ago
That’s nominal GDP, real GDP only increased about 2%. Inflation is starting to get under control but the ~3% average this year is still over the Fed’s target. We’re no longer in dire straits but “As good as it has ever been” is definitely a stretch. The dangerous part will be the effects of coming back from a zero interest regime. Foreclosure rates for example started rising last year for the first time since the GFC and in 2023 they increased roughly 18% YoY

Economy continues to slide? US Q3 GDP was up +4.9% the economy is about as good as it has ever been.

wyre 3y ago

There is more to an economy than GDP.

nindalf 3y ago
Yeah, like unemployment, inflation, wages and so on, all of which are pretty good in Jan 2024.

Loughla 3y ago

Why, then, is that not the reality for every day people?

ForRealsies 3y ago
[dead]
edgyquant 3y ago
Because there’s more to the average persons life than overall GDP growth.
kasey_junk 3y ago
This is actually a very big topic in economics right now. By our usual metrics (not just gdp but many others) the economy is great. The top theories on why this hasn’t translated to how people feel are a) the metrics we collect aren’t that relevant to the lived experience (but if so why have they traditionally correlated to people’s feelings) b) the metrics have measurement error (but if so why can’t we find it?) or c) people’s feelings are more influenced by other things than the economy (such as their media consumption, societal changes, etc) and that carries over into the “vibes” measurement. But, by the measures we have about the broad economy things are pretty good.
- Geisterde 3y ago
  Serious question, in what circles are those top theories? I am sure C plays into it, and I know I live in a bubble; but I would expect any list of this type to include something like: large scale upward wealth transfers from bailouts/stimulus in 2008/2009 and covid, which has resulted in zombie companies taking over major sectors of the economy; or, trade deficits caused by our money being the global reserve asset have hollowed out the industrial base, obviously economically but also spiritually as people have lost the jobs that made them feel like they contribute to society. Im not trying to get at you or something, I just genuinely want to know where people are talking like this, what do they think about, how do they see things, thats all.
  - kasey_junk 3y ago
    It’s a very common topic in lots of venues. Here is the economist talking about it: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/09/07/the-pandemic-has-broken-a-closely-followed-survey-of-sentiment https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/09/07/the-pand... But as a for instance on one of the things you mentioned, our trade imbalance is less now than it was in the early 2000s. US industrial jobs have been on a negative trend for more than 50 years! That doesn’t correlate with the split between sentiment and other metrics either.
    - Geisterde 3y ago
      Thanks for the link; I find myself more sympathetic to the corollary of your second metric, that we are at a 50 year low in industrial work, to be a viable explanation; though ill admit my surpise that trade defecits are lower than the early 2000s, that ill need to dig into more.
      - kasey_junk 3y ago
        There are more workers employed in manufacturing in real terms now than 20 years ago as well. In a % of population basis that’s not true so maybe there is some effect on sentiment based on the % of people employed in that sector? I’ve not seen that put forth as a hypothesis anywhere but I’m certainly not an expert.

nindalf 3y ago

Vibecession. People are convinced there's a recession because everyone else says so.

Atheros 3y ago
What is Gen Z, along with the other terminally-online older people going to do with themselves if there actually is ever another recession? Gen Z'ers entire teenage and adult lives have been in a period of huge economic growth which continues today. They have no concept of how bad a recession actually feels. I suspect that this is a contributing factor to the vibecession: younger adults don't know what recessions feel like. If this is the level of complaining happening during an economic expansion, what are they going to do in a contraction? When wages drop precipitously? When they send out hundreds of resumes and hear back on none of them? When having unemployed friends becomes ubiquitous? Or maybe the vibecession isn't real at all and virtually everyone saying we're in a recession doesn't actually believe it and is just virtue signaling support for poorer people?

mcmcmc 3y ago

That’s nominal GDP, real GDP only increased about 2%. Inflation is starting to get under control but the ~3% average this year is still over the Fed’s target. We’re no longer in dire straits but “As good as it has ever been” is definitely a stretch. The dangerous part will be the effects of coming back from a zero interest regime. Foreclosure rates for example started rising last year for the first time since the GFC and in 2023 they increased roughly 18% YoY