7 ms·

The fresh start effect

108 points by lars512 3y ago

jemmyw 3y ago
> Were we just cynically capitalising on people's New Year's resolutions, all of which are bound to fail? Or was there something more to it? It can be both
- justinl33 3y ago
  Mega PR hack: bring up and dismiss the question before the reader can make any assumptions
  - teaearlgraycold 3y ago
    That’s just a classic PR maneuver
  - lars512 3y ago
    Author here. It's in some ways well and good to be sceptical of the health and wellness industry, including gyms and software companies like Lifesum. Note that they're my ex employer. I have good feelings for the place and own some shares, but I have no special need to do PR for them. I want to agree with something you didn't quite spell out: the incentives are not really properly aligned in this kind of industry. You get paid up front, when people are at maximum motivation, but progress takes a long time and many people drop off along the way. Some kind of business model where you get a half-refund for non-usage would be a reasonable compromise for everyone, but I've never seen it in action. Speaking for the people I know who are involved in this work, they are not cynical. They do this kind of work, instead of other work, since they genuinely want to help people. Our product worked if you stuck at it, so we spent a lot of time encourage people to come back each day and work at their goal. You can take my word about this, or not, as you like. Something even a cynic would celebrate: there seems to be a push in some parts of the US health system to pay for outcomes (e.g. confirmed weight loss; stopping smoking) rather than processes (e.g. access to an app for losing weight; access to a quit smoking program). That's a really welcome development, it aligns everyone's incentives nicely.
    - justinl33 3y ago
      Thanks for your reply! I must admit that my comment was very much a cheeky one and in no way harboured any real criticism. In a world where literally every aspect of our being and behaviour is being exploited for some corporations financial gain (social media, life insurance, hft), a health app trying to take advantage of New Year’s resolutions does not at all deserve any judgement. In fact it’s almost refreshing. It’s cool to hear about those advancements in the US health system too, and it’s nice to see that you’re genuinely behind the product. I hope this post helped you guys out :)
- opportune 3y ago
  If the demand for their services is cyclical, it’s rational to plan around the peak of that cycle.
prakhar897 3y ago
> The study describes how people take on difficult things after "temporal landmarks" like the start of a new year, a new month, or even a new week. Despite the replication crisis in social science and behavioural economics, this was an effect that we immediately verified in our own user data at Lifesum. Can't you send your data to further prove that this effect exists? PR for you, win for science.
- lars512 3y ago
  It's my ex employer, so I unfortunately don't have access to the data any more.
janwillemb 3y ago
> Some people are cynical about New Year's resolutions, prefer not to make them, or look down on others who do. > I have a different perspective. Overall, I admire people who try to make change in their lives for the better. This is good general advice. Why not just be supportive and nice to people instead of dismissing whatever effort they put in things that they want to do or are passionate about. This makes it easier for yourself to change too, whenever that is desirable or needed.
- ionyun 3y ago
  The thinking that goes into things like new years resolutions is also part of a greater ideology though. That in itself dismisses fundamental changes for unrealistic scenarios. That you don't need good housing, working conditions or health care because with this one business, diet or lifestyle trick you will beat the odds. In many countries the majority now are overweight or obese in their sixties. Despite more knowledge, method and products than ever. And that is counting all the outliers who just don't eat much or are very active. There is nothing wrong with a new years resolution but you have to take it for what it is. Actually getting fitter, eating better and losing weight is a multiple year commitment at least. If it is hard for any extended period of time the likelihood of success is low.
  - couchand 3y ago
    The stereotypical buy-a-gym-membership-use-it-once resolution doesn't encompass the whole of the thing. Another line of thinking that goes into things like New Years' resolutions is the idea that significant change can only be intentionally and effectively made in a long series of tiny steps. The OP discusses the dual of this idea but misses the main thing: > The reality is that if you are going to do something that's really difficult, like changing your whole approach to eating, you are likely to either fail, or to accumulate the kind of micro-failures over time that erode your motivation, death by a thousand cuts. The flip side here is that overall progress is composed of micro-successes over time that build your motivation.
    - poulsbohemian 3y ago
timvdalen 3y ago
Hey, I just switched from Noom to Lifesum a few months ago, interesting to come across it here!
- teaearlgraycold 3y ago
  Good luck with whatever your goals are!
  - timvdalen 3y ago
    Thanks! I'm mostly trying to get better at maintaining, as I'm really good at both gaining and losing weight :)
- mym1990 3y ago
  How was the transition? I just got on Noom for a 2nd stint
  - timvdalen 3y ago
    I don't think you can learn much from my transition, I was on a Noom lifetime subscription, which they ended up dismanteling a few years back. They kept removing features and not adding newly released features to my subscription, so the comparison doesn't make a ton of sense. All in all, happy with Lifesum though! The database is _excellent_ for The Netherlands, which means that barcode scanning just works (something I barely even tried with Noom anymore), and syncing with Fitbit works well, too (as long as you set your base metabolism to 0 in Lifesum). I especially love the "compare products" feature, where you scan a couple of barcodes and the app tells you which product is the 'better' option and why it chose that one.
- slingnow 3y ago
  Fascinating thanks !!!!
NKosmatos 3y ago
Interesting, even more interesting is the linked article about the age distribution of marathon finishers: https://runrepeat.com/12-percent-more-likely-to-run-a-marathon-at-a-milestone-age https://runrepeat.com/12-percent-more-likely-to-run-a-marath... I can confirm this "milestone age", by looking at some relatives who started running and participating in marathons at an older age.
- AlecSchueler 3y ago
  The most interesting part of that for me was the illustration of how much mothers miss out on fully partaking in society. I hope the fathers of my generation and the next can do better to bridge this gap.
  - kamikaz1k 3y ago
    Reading that article doesn’t seem to claim that mothers are missing out on fully partaking in society. They actually claim that they focus more on family, less focus on self, also adopting more spiritual pursuits…whatever that means. Without reading too much into it, let’s not deemphasize family rearing importance to society in order to emphasize the need to fill some equality gap. The source of which could be complicated [1][2] [1] https://www.neonarrative.us/p/no-matter-how-much-parenting-dads https://www.neonarrative.us/p/no-matter-how-much-parenting-d... [2] https://ifstudies.org/blog/equal-not-identical-in-sharing-family-tasks-consider-the-preferences-of-men-and-women?s=09 https://ifstudies.org/blog/equal-not-identical-in-sharing-fa...
    - AlecSchueler 3y ago
      Yes, the expectation to give up focus on the self and go into familial service is what directly leads to them missing opportunities to do things like marathons after they reach 30. > Without reading too much into it, let’s not deemphasize family rearing importance to society in order to emphasize the need to fill some equality gap Why not? Many women talk about it at length, it's already been a part of feminist theory and action for a long time. Why should I not listen to them if they tell me they've been hurt? Because it "could be complicated?" On a site dedicated to intellectual stimulation that won't cut it for me. I really recommend you to check out Invisible Women by Caroline Criado-Perez to get a sense of the breath and number of barriers we put up for women. They are not being given a fair choice, and they're it loudly.
svilen_dobrev 3y ago
use the available... or make yourself A fresh start (when feeling like it. Like in some total burnout. see Sacrifice by Tarkovsky) There is a .bg saying .. "when the cart goes wheels up, roads are many.." that is usually taken negative - like "it's too late to fix stuff" - but could be used otherway around - do turn the cart wheels-up if u want more road/s..
JohnMakin 3y ago
when you make a "fresh start" or grand resolution to do something, you get a rush of reward chemicals as if you actually did the thing. That's why so many people make resolutions and then barely ever keep them. Incremental, daily changes are much more difficult and less rewarding to those centers of our brain.
- t43562 3y ago
  I feel that's the way it works - not "I'll start being good tomorrow" but the way in which you change those small decisions that you make 20 times a day about whether to eat something or do some exercise or whatever. When you flex your decision making so that it regularly turns up right answers you have "got on the wagon". I have done this with diets and I'm currently "off the wagon" and this business of getting on usually starts with one big long bit of exercise - like an especially long walk and somehow I get the discipline out of that to kick me onto the right track. Once on the track I'm ok till I am sick or until the darkest bit of winter or until very stressful things happen at work. So I realise life will always be up and down for me - which is just better than always down.
5goals 3y ago
I blogged[1] about this a few days ago. Fresh start events like new years, birthdays or something catastrophic happening in our lives are usually triggers (and an effective one) to start doing something. Similarly to the author here, 20% of users on 5Goals came on January 1st. The most effective way to minimize micro-failures is to make the goals achievable so you can build momentum. Momentum is a force of nature. Funny enough, from my own research with my project, a Green Day (a day where 5 out of 5 goals were achieved) either comes right after a Red Day (0 of out of 5 goals achieved) or right after another Green Day. [1] https://medium.com/@5goals/faith-is-the-foundation-of-habits-1cb1713bf879 https://medium.com/@5goals/faith-is-the-foundation-of-habits...
javier_e06 3y ago
What does the future you has done for you? Eh? vs. What a goof the past you was, eh? Good riddance! Find a mentor, and start connecting your past and your future but not an app.
Jemaclus 3y ago
> Despite the replication crisis in social science and behavioural economics, this was an effect that we immediately verified in our own user data at Lifesum. People began diets at the start of a new year, around their birthdays, and at the start of a new month. Even within a week, there was a micro-effect: people used us more on Mondays, and then usage would taper off over the week. I started my fitness journey around the time I turned 30 years old. I don't know why, I just somehow decided to do Couch to 5K, and from there it turned into something that I really enjoy and spend a lot of time doing. That said, I'm a _little_ skeptical about the premise here, which, if I'm reading it correctly, is that "people start things and don't finish them." I guess that's true -- certainly of myself -- but OP is talking from the perspective of Lifesum, a dieting app. My mind goes to this question: if people use Lifesum on Mondays and then drop off, is that the fault of the customers or the fault of the app? To put it a different way, I exercise every day. I watch what I eat. I'm in very good shape. But sometimes I think "I should track my calories," so I download LoseIt or MyFitnessPal or something else. And I track my calories for... a week, maybe two, maybe three. In real life? Still eating healthy, still exercising daily, still enjoying my fitness journey. On the app? Gone. I've dropped off. Why did I drop off? There are probably a few things. One is that I am possibly not the target demographic. (Although, am I? As a fitness person that is tracking macros religiously, shouldn't these apps be critical for my success?) Another is that I just lack the discipline to track my food and diet. But that can't be true, either, can it? I've exercised in some form or fashion every day for the last 1843 days. I read every day. I call my parents twice a week every week. I have discipline to follow schedules and plans that I stick to. A third is that I just don't care enough. This feels most likely to me. I'm doing well in my fitness journey. The app doesn't provide enough value to me. I don't _need_ it and it feels like extra cruft getting in the way of my enjoyment of life. I'm not saying OP is wrong, but I'm offering an alternative view: maybe it's not that people can't stick with resolutions and that temporal milestones are, well, temporary. Maybe it's that we're making the wrong resolutions in the first place. Or perhaps that the tools that exist to tackle the "wrong" resolutions aren't sufficient. Anyway, just my two cents.

108 points by lars512 3y ago

> Were we just cynically capitalising on people's New Year's resolutions, all of which are bound to fail? Or was there something more to it? It can be both

justinl33 3y ago
Mega PR hack: bring up and dismiss the question before the reader can make any assumptions
- teaearlgraycold 3y ago
  That’s just a classic PR maneuver
- lars512 3y ago
  Author here. It's in some ways well and good to be sceptical of the health and wellness industry, including gyms and software companies like Lifesum. Note that they're my ex employer. I have good feelings for the place and own some shares, but I have no special need to do PR for them. I want to agree with something you didn't quite spell out: the incentives are not really properly aligned in this kind of industry. You get paid up front, when people are at maximum motivation, but progress takes a long time and many people drop off along the way. Some kind of business model where you get a half-refund for non-usage would be a reasonable compromise for everyone, but I've never seen it in action. Speaking for the people I know who are involved in this work, they are not cynical. They do this kind of work, instead of other work, since they genuinely want to help people. Our product worked if you stuck at it, so we spent a lot of time encourage people to come back each day and work at their goal. You can take my word about this, or not, as you like. Something even a cynic would celebrate: there seems to be a push in some parts of the US health system to pay for outcomes (e.g. confirmed weight loss; stopping smoking) rather than processes (e.g. access to an app for losing weight; access to a quit smoking program). That's a really welcome development, it aligns everyone's incentives nicely.
  - justinl33 3y ago
    Thanks for your reply! I must admit that my comment was very much a cheeky one and in no way harboured any real criticism. In a world where literally every aspect of our being and behaviour is being exploited for some corporations financial gain (social media, life insurance, hft), a health app trying to take advantage of New Year’s resolutions does not at all deserve any judgement. In fact it’s almost refreshing. It’s cool to hear about those advancements in the US health system too, and it’s nice to see that you’re genuinely behind the product. I hope this post helped you guys out :)
opportune 3y ago
If the demand for their services is cyclical, it’s rational to plan around the peak of that cycle.

prakhar897 3y ago

> The study describes how people take on difficult things after "temporal landmarks" like the start of a new year, a new month, or even a new week. Despite the replication crisis in social science and behavioural economics, this was an effect that we immediately verified in our own user data at Lifesum. Can't you send your data to further prove that this effect exists? PR for you, win for science.

lars512 3y ago
It's my ex employer, so I unfortunately don't have access to the data any more.

janwillemb 3y ago

> Some people are cynical about New Year's resolutions, prefer not to make them, or look down on others who do. > I have a different perspective. Overall, I admire people who try to make change in their lives for the better. This is good general advice. Why not just be supportive and nice to people instead of dismissing whatever effort they put in things that they want to do or are passionate about. This makes it easier for yourself to change too, whenever that is desirable or needed.

ionyun 3y ago
The thinking that goes into things like new years resolutions is also part of a greater ideology though. That in itself dismisses fundamental changes for unrealistic scenarios. That you don't need good housing, working conditions or health care because with this one business, diet or lifestyle trick you will beat the odds. In many countries the majority now are overweight or obese in their sixties. Despite more knowledge, method and products than ever. And that is counting all the outliers who just don't eat much or are very active. There is nothing wrong with a new years resolution but you have to take it for what it is. Actually getting fitter, eating better and losing weight is a multiple year commitment at least. If it is hard for any extended period of time the likelihood of success is low.
- couchand 3y ago
  The stereotypical buy-a-gym-membership-use-it-once resolution doesn't encompass the whole of the thing. Another line of thinking that goes into things like New Years' resolutions is the idea that significant change can only be intentionally and effectively made in a long series of tiny steps. The OP discusses the dual of this idea but misses the main thing: > The reality is that if you are going to do something that's really difficult, like changing your whole approach to eating, you are likely to either fail, or to accumulate the kind of micro-failures over time that erode your motivation, death by a thousand cuts. The flip side here is that overall progress is composed of micro-successes over time that build your motivation.
  - poulsbohemian 3y ago

timvdalen 3y ago

Hey, I just switched from Noom to Lifesum a few months ago, interesting to come across it here!

teaearlgraycold 3y ago
Good luck with whatever your goals are!
- timvdalen 3y ago
  Thanks! I'm mostly trying to get better at maintaining, as I'm really good at both gaining and losing weight :)
mym1990 3y ago
How was the transition? I just got on Noom for a 2nd stint
- timvdalen 3y ago
  I don't think you can learn much from my transition, I was on a Noom lifetime subscription, which they ended up dismanteling a few years back. They kept removing features and not adding newly released features to my subscription, so the comparison doesn't make a ton of sense. All in all, happy with Lifesum though! The database is _excellent_ for The Netherlands, which means that barcode scanning just works (something I barely even tried with Noom anymore), and syncing with Fitbit works well, too (as long as you set your base metabolism to 0 in Lifesum). I especially love the "compare products" feature, where you scan a couple of barcodes and the app tells you which product is the 'better' option and why it chose that one.
slingnow 3y ago
Fascinating thanks !!!!

NKosmatos 3y ago

Interesting, even more interesting is the linked article about the age distribution of marathon finishers: https://runrepeat.com/12-percent-more-likely-to-run-a-marathon-at-a-milestone-age https://runrepeat.com/12-percent-more-likely-to-run-a-marath... I can confirm this "milestone age", by looking at some relatives who started running and participating in marathons at an older age.

AlecSchueler 3y ago
The most interesting part of that for me was the illustration of how much mothers miss out on fully partaking in society. I hope the fathers of my generation and the next can do better to bridge this gap.
- kamikaz1k 3y ago
  Reading that article doesn’t seem to claim that mothers are missing out on fully partaking in society. They actually claim that they focus more on family, less focus on self, also adopting more spiritual pursuits…whatever that means. Without reading too much into it, let’s not deemphasize family rearing importance to society in order to emphasize the need to fill some equality gap. The source of which could be complicated [1][2] [1] https://www.neonarrative.us/p/no-matter-how-much-parenting-dads https://www.neonarrative.us/p/no-matter-how-much-parenting-d... [2] https://ifstudies.org/blog/equal-not-identical-in-sharing-family-tasks-consider-the-preferences-of-men-and-women?s=09 https://ifstudies.org/blog/equal-not-identical-in-sharing-fa...
  - AlecSchueler 3y ago
    Yes, the expectation to give up focus on the self and go into familial service is what directly leads to them missing opportunities to do things like marathons after they reach 30. > Without reading too much into it, let’s not deemphasize family rearing importance to society in order to emphasize the need to fill some equality gap Why not? Many women talk about it at length, it's already been a part of feminist theory and action for a long time. Why should I not listen to them if they tell me they've been hurt? Because it "could be complicated?" On a site dedicated to intellectual stimulation that won't cut it for me. I really recommend you to check out Invisible Women by Caroline Criado-Perez to get a sense of the breath and number of barriers we put up for women. They are not being given a fair choice, and they're it loudly.

svilen_dobrev 3y ago

use the available... or make yourself A fresh start (when feeling like it. Like in some total burnout. see Sacrifice by Tarkovsky) There is a .bg saying .. "when the cart goes wheels up, roads are many.." that is usually taken negative - like "it's too late to fix stuff" - but could be used otherway around - do turn the cart wheels-up if u want more road/s..

JohnMakin 3y ago

when you make a "fresh start" or grand resolution to do something, you get a rush of reward chemicals as if you actually did the thing. That's why so many people make resolutions and then barely ever keep them. Incremental, daily changes are much more difficult and less rewarding to those centers of our brain.

t43562 3y ago
I feel that's the way it works - not "I'll start being good tomorrow" but the way in which you change those small decisions that you make 20 times a day about whether to eat something or do some exercise or whatever. When you flex your decision making so that it regularly turns up right answers you have "got on the wagon". I have done this with diets and I'm currently "off the wagon" and this business of getting on usually starts with one big long bit of exercise - like an especially long walk and somehow I get the discipline out of that to kick me onto the right track. Once on the track I'm ok till I am sick or until the darkest bit of winter or until very stressful things happen at work. So I realise life will always be up and down for me - which is just better than always down.

5goals 3y ago

I blogged[1] about this a few days ago. Fresh start events like new years, birthdays or something catastrophic happening in our lives are usually triggers (and an effective one) to start doing something. Similarly to the author here, 20% of users on 5Goals came on January 1st. The most effective way to minimize micro-failures is to make the goals achievable so you can build momentum. Momentum is a force of nature. Funny enough, from my own research with my project, a Green Day (a day where 5 out of 5 goals were achieved) either comes right after a Red Day (0 of out of 5 goals achieved) or right after another Green Day. [1] https://medium.com/@5goals/faith-is-the-foundation-of-habits-1cb1713bf879 https://medium.com/@5goals/faith-is-the-foundation-of-habits...

javier_e06 3y ago

What does the future you has done for you? Eh? vs. What a goof the past you was, eh? Good riddance! Find a mentor, and start connecting your past and your future but not an app.

Jemaclus 3y ago

> Despite the replication crisis in social science and behavioural economics, this was an effect that we immediately verified in our own user data at Lifesum. People began diets at the start of a new year, around their birthdays, and at the start of a new month. Even within a week, there was a micro-effect: people used us more on Mondays, and then usage would taper off over the week. I started my fitness journey around the time I turned 30 years old. I don't know why, I just somehow decided to do Couch to 5K, and from there it turned into something that I really enjoy and spend a lot of time doing. That said, I'm a _little_ skeptical about the premise here, which, if I'm reading it correctly, is that "people start things and don't finish them." I guess that's true -- certainly of myself -- but OP is talking from the perspective of Lifesum, a dieting app. My mind goes to this question: if people use Lifesum on Mondays and then drop off, is that the fault of the customers or the fault of the app? To put it a different way, I exercise every day. I watch what I eat. I'm in very good shape. But sometimes I think "I should track my calories," so I download LoseIt or MyFitnessPal or something else. And I track my calories for... a week, maybe two, maybe three. In real life? Still eating healthy, still exercising daily, still enjoying my fitness journey. On the app? Gone. I've dropped off. Why did I drop off? There are probably a few things. One is that I am possibly not the target demographic. (Although, am I? As a fitness person that is tracking macros religiously, shouldn't these apps be critical for my success?) Another is that I just lack the discipline to track my food and diet. But that can't be true, either, can it? I've exercised in some form or fashion every day for the last 1843 days. I read every day. I call my parents twice a week every week. I have discipline to follow schedules and plans that I stick to. A third is that I just don't care enough. This feels most likely to me. I'm doing well in my fitness journey. The app doesn't provide enough value to me. I don't _need_ it and it feels like extra cruft getting in the way of my enjoyment of life. I'm not saying OP is wrong, but I'm offering an alternative view: maybe it's not that people can't stick with resolutions and that temporal milestones are, well, temporary. Maybe it's that we're making the wrong resolutions in the first place. Or perhaps that the tools that exist to tackle the "wrong" resolutions aren't sufficient. Anyway, just my two cents.