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The U.S. government should be concerned. The U.S. tax base could very well implode with outsourcing, ai, and offshoring in the next 10 years.
by pylua 3y ago
The U.S. government should be concerned. The U.S. tax base could very well implode with outsourcing, ai, and offshoring in the next 10 years.
- alephnerd 3y agoThis is why you encourage immigration. If you prevent talent from coming to the US, companies will follow the talent. This is why American cybersecurity and networking has almost entirely been outsourced to Israel and India and chip manufacturing to Taiwan and South Korea.
- pylua 3y agoI do not understand how we got to this point. India is not in the U.S. sphere of influence and has not even voted to condemn Russia. It’s really a sign of how weak the U.S. government has become, which is heartbreaking. US has found it too expensive to invest in its own citizens. It’s almost a ticking time bomb.
- alephnerd 3y ago> India is not in the U.S. sphere of influence Financing the Abraham Accords [0], using American engines in tanks [1], American fighter jet engines in Indian fighter jets [2], and being a part of 2 bilateral treaty organizations [3][4] absolutely puts India in the US Sphere of Influence. > has not even voted to condemn Russia India will never piss off Russia, because India doesn't want Russia to join the Chinese camp [5]. By keeping trade and defense ties with Russia, India minimizes the chances of Russia becoming pro-China instead of neutral during an India-China war (which almost happened in 2020) [6]. Mistreatment of Indian students in Ukraine during the war made a vote in favor of Ukraine politically untenable during election season [7] [0] - https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/saudi-india-uae-us-railway-deal-g20-middle-east https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/saudi-india-uae-us-railway-... [1] - https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/americas-cummins-engine-to-power-zorawar-tank-after-germany-fails-to-relax-trade-restrictions/article67544664.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/ameri... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/why-ge-plan-make-fighter-jet-engines-india-is-big-deal-2023-06-22/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/why-ge-pl... [3] - https://www.state.gov/i2u2/ https://www.state.gov/i2u2/ [4] - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/12/quad-leaders-joint-statement-the-spirit-of-the-quad/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases... [5] - https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/06/india-in-emerging-world-order-pub-90928 https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/06/india-in-emerging-w... [6] - https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-naravane-recalls-how-india-china-were-at-brink-of-war-in-aug-2020/1892648/ https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-narav... [7] - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/ukraine-crisis-stranded-students-face-racial-abuse-373916 https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/ukraine-crisis-stra...
- pylua 3y agoIn some ways it is a U.S. ally. But don’t tell me you are going to buy Russian oil and not side with the us in Ukraine and tell me you are under our influence. Any development in a country that has not washed its hands of Russia should be illegal for selling in the us. In addition, the recent argument with Canada over the killing over a citizen on Canadian soil comes into play here. That is not what s country under western influence does.
- alephnerd 3y ago> you I'm American. > are going to buy Russian oil and not side with the us (sic) in Ukraine Well, 1. That oil goes to the EU. If there's a buyer, there's going to be a seller [0] 2. It's at margins barely above the cost to extract, which is as big a financial hit you make make [1] 3. As pointed above, China is the bigger bad to India instead of Russia. It's better to keep countries neutral in a future India-China war > Any development in a country that has not washed its hands of Russia should be illegal for selling in the us. Thank god you don't work at the State Department. That's how you alienate every country that isn't in North America and Europe. China would have the pick of the litter. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/europe-is-guzzling-diesel-from-india-a-key-buyer-of-russian-oil https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/europe-is... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/revenues-russias-top-oil-gas-producers-fall-41-first-9-months-2023-2023-11-30/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/revenues-russias...
- pylua 3y agoI understand the need for the us to sacrifice somewhat in order to tame the bigger bad. However, the us is operating from weakness here which is not okay and the situation should have never been allowed to develop to this point. Ironically it may be outsourcing and offshoring in the first place that led us here. US critical infrastructure development should not be outsourced to countries who have any contact with countries that are we are in a proxy war with.
- one-another-dev 3y ago
- KennyBlanken 3y agoIndia is assassinating people on US and Canadian soil. And more importantly, the US and Canadian governments are being very officially-public about it. Let that sink in. I'd be shocked if China isn't assassinating people too. They definitely have established "police stations" here and are conducting operations against dissidents and their families, but maybe it hasn't crossed into actual murder. If it has, the US and Canada aren't talking about it; they're barely talking about, or doing anything about, the secret police stations.
- _heimdall 3y ago> India is assassinating people on US and Canadian soil. I've clearly missed something here. Where can I learn more about what you're referencing here, or what Google search would point me in the right direction?
- swalberg 3y agoThe Washington Post has written about this a fair bit, including an article from the editorial board. "washington post indian assassination" should give you some reading.
- chasd00 3y agoBasically India made plans to assassinate someone on US soil, got found out and then carried it out on Canadian soil. Here’s the first hit for “India assassinate Canada” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/canada/india-assassination-plot-canada-sikh.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/canada/india-assass...
- senderista 3y agoMaybe Modi took a hint when Trump practically laughed off the Khashoggi assassination.
- cool_dude85 3y agoIs the issue not enough talent in the US, or not enough talent at a desired salary range? One of the guys here is talking about people making 30k USD. My guess is there is not much American talent at that pay range, even if there's plenty of talent available here generally.
- secstate 3y agoOld story retold. The Claudian Roman government doubled down on the distinction between barbarian and Roman civilian and used shitty rhetorical tools to denigrate the barbarians. This all despite the fact that most Romans farms and undesirable jobs were still being done by "barbarians." It's almost like looking into a mirror of history. The end for Rome was not far beyond Claudius.
- alephnerd 3y agoWhich Claudius? I never read Roman history beyond 6th and 7th grade history and AoE 1's campaigns, but I think Roman analogies would make it easier to drive my point to a couple people.
- pylua 3y agoI feel like the correct compromise for our conversation would be requiring strict clearance control for products in certain sectors. The reality is that if you work on a banking product for instance you might find an exploit you can use and keep secret and use to your countries benefit. That’s why these positions need clearance controls. Even a benign program like a text editor could have a back door installed to spy on the us. I am curious to hear your thoughts. Thanks.
- alephnerd 3y agoThere is no solution. US, Israeli, and Indian cyber-infrastructure is completely intertwined. There's no possible way to decouple without reversing 30 years of development. The only solution is to justify to Israel and India why they should continue to align to the US, instead of hacking it on their own. This justification comes from the carrot (FDI, IP Transfers) and the stick (bad press, cultivating alternative allies, tarriffs) The era of Hyperpower is over. Regional Powers have returned. The US Policy world has recognized this for a decade and is operating under those assumptions. The issue is the type of person who gets their news from CNN, Fox, Reddit, Zeihan, Telegram, etc isn't exactly the kind to read policy papers or watch C-SPAN > Even a benign program like a text editor could have a back door installed to spy on the us. It goes both ways. Meta is an American company with development done in the US. Everyone uses WhatsApp at the senior levels outside of North America. Everyone other than China uses Google as their primary search engine. Everyone uses MS or Apple as their primary OS
- _heimdall 3y ago> This is why you encourage immigration. Our problem doesn't really seem like a lack of encouragement for immigration. We have plenty of people trying to come here, we either don't want the people attempting to come or don't want immigration at scale at all. Social programs and entitlements are really all the encouragement needed for immigration, as long as you're legally allowed to immigrate and get a job at all. Is the question really how do we encourage the "right" kind of immigrants for the skills or roles we want to expand?
- alephnerd 3y ago> how do we encourage the "right" kind of immigrants for the skills or roles we want to expand Remove a decade long backlog for Indian nationals coming to work in Skilled fields (STEM, Accounting, Healthcare, Finance, Law) by speeding up processing times by hiring more bodies at USCIS Processing Centers. And also maybe not forcing every Chinese national who studied STEM in China to go through enhanced background checks [0]. And also hiring more immigration judges (I knew a former Immigration Judge with the DHS - they de facto had a hiring freeze since the 2010s, leading to case backlogs). Tl;dr - stop defunding the DHS and USCIS [0] - https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/06/04/2020-12217/suspension-of-entry-as-nonimmigrants-of-certain-students-and-researchers-from-the-peoples-republic https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/06/04/2020-12...
- pc86 3y agoThere are plenty of federal agencies that are underfunded or being tacitly defunded, DHS is absolutely not one of them.
- alephnerd 3y agoUSCIS: https://immigrationimpact.com/2023/01/17/uscis-funding-crisis-too-big-to-fix/ https://immigrationimpact.com/2023/01/17/uscis-funding-crisi...
- _heimdall 3y agoAgreed all of those can and should be done. IMO none of those are related to encouraging immigration though, only removing legal blockers. The incentives exist, we just need to get out of peoples' way and let people immigrate here. Alternatively, we could alter the statue of liberty and remove the poem if we collectively don't want to welcome immigrants of all skills and situations.
- sanderjd 3y agoMaybe ... but this is almost word for word what my college counselor told me in 2001 when encouraging me not to study computer science, and I've heard some variant of it again and again ever since. What I think is that supply and demand will continue to ebb and flow, as will compensation, but that the ability to create software is a useful skill that will continue to be compensated pretty well for the foreseeable future.
- pylua 3y agoIt will need to be tied in with a real abet engineering discipline the future , at least domestically.
- sanderjd 3y agoThis is more or less why I said the useful skill is the ability to "create software", not to "write code". One end game may well be that a lot of people who are today "product managers" will use increasingly capable AI assistants to "create software" without writing much, if any, code. But in that world, I think a lot of people who are today "programmers" will also be very well suited to creating software in that way, and will have no trouble transitioning into those roles if that's where the opportunities are.
- oceanplexian 3y agoSaying that kids shouldn’t need to study computer science is like saying kids shouldn’t need to read and write because the market for literate people is saturated. Code is the toolset for the modern economy.
- sanderjd 3y agoSo, this is an easier case to make today (though to be honest I remain pretty skeptical of this), but in 2001 this was very far from being clear cut. The dot-com bubble had just burst and software looked like it might be a small niche or even just a fad in permanent decline.
- _heimdall 3y agoI wouldn't underestimate the tolerance our system has for paying people to do otherwise unnecessary jobs simply to keep employment high and people distracted. Our system would indeed implode if many went unemployed. Companies would go down with it though, they need people employed so they can spend money and keep the gears of capitalism turning. I know I sound very cynical here but I don't even mean it as a bad thing. Its just the way this works, for anyone looking to down vote a cynical sounding take I'd be really interested to hear what I might be misrepresenting.
- nradov 3y agoThis is nonsense. There is no "system". Individual companies don't hesitate to lay off employees if that improves profits. While a few worthless employees can slip through the cracks at large companies, there is zero chance that employers continue paying large numbers of employees to do unnecessary jobs. Boards have no loyalty to abstract concepts like capitalism.
- medvezhenok 3y agoMore jobs can always be invented/created in the name of safety. More regulators, more regulations, more psychological councilors, more child protection specialists, more DEI councilors, more lawyers for more lawsuits, more military divisions (to keep the country safe)... etc. Mainly supported with public funding. Not saying those aren't real jobs (many certainly are), but I think the scope & number of those jobs can be expanded to fill the void left by more "productive" / "survival" jobs.
- nradov 3y agoNow you're just making things up. Safety professionals make up a minimal fraction of the workforce which has barely increased in recent years. If anything, we should be spending more on workplace safety. Those are hardly useless jobs. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-musk-safety/ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-m... Companies have been quick to cut DEI jobs as soon as the outside political pressure died down. https://nypost.com/2023/12/28/tech/google-meta-other-tech-giants-slash-dei-related-jobs-resource-groups-in-2023-report/ https://nypost.com/2023/12/28/tech/google-meta-other-tech-gi... The military has been cutting personnel. The number of divisions has gone down. Higher military spending has been going towards procurement programs, not towards more uniformed jobs (although some defense contractors have expanded a bit).