2 ms·

Should it not contain an aggressive, expansionist US?

• nradov 3y ago
  The rest of the world is welcome to try. They might not like the results when the US Navy no longer safeguards the majority of international trade. Ironically, China has been one of the primary economic beneficiaries of the postwar Pax Americana. Their merchant ships have been able to travel freely throughout the world without incurring the expense of building a true blue-water navy to protect them. This situation will gradually fall apart over the next few decades.
  • seydor 3y ago
    people watch too much zeihan these days. global trade was a thing even in the age of empires. it might even be a good thing to have a counterbalancing force
    • nradov 3y ago
      Global trade was far more limited prior to the establishment of US hegemony. During the age of empires, merchant vessels often had to carry weapons for protection and/or travel in escorted convoys. All of that leads to higher costs, delays, and the complete closure of indefensible routes. No one is seriously claiming that global trade will disappear. But from a historical perspective the current frictionless system that most people take for granted is an aberration and we should expect some reversion towards the mean. Whether that's a good thing or not is a matter of perspective.