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Making rockets as reusable as airplanes necessitates many millions of flights per year, not a few hundreds. It will take a lot of time to build up enough demand
by anovikov 3y ago
Making rockets as reusable as airplanes necessitates many millions of flights per year, not a few hundreds. It will take a lot of time to build up enough demand. There has to be some pipeline of production which to be economical, needs to be constantly loaded, so at least a few dozen new rockets per year (airplane producers who build that little are normally balancing on the brink, it takes hundreds per year for true economy of scale). And then they need to fly thousands or at least many hundreds of times per year, each, over decades, so at least 10K times each, typically 30K or sometimes even 50K times. No less than a million total sorties per year PER PRODUCER, because an industry with just one supplier is never going to be efficient. So several million flights and maybe 50-100M tons delivered to LEO, per year, total.
It's hard to see what does the humankind may need to put into orbit in quantities like that. Just for comparison, this is about as much as air cargo volumes delivered in the world.
- WalterBright 3y agoDoing a lunar base that is capable of approaching self-sufficiency would need that.
- anovikov 3y agoWho would fork the bill? How would that thing pay for itself?
- WalterBright 3y agoThe Moon has energy, raw materials, and a shallow gravity well. Hence it would be valuable for constructing and launching large spacecraft. The spacecraft would also not need to be built to withstand the stresses of an Earth launch, nor would it need to deal with weather, moisture, etc.