I left the same comment on another thread about the Crimea attack: The war in Ukraine while tragic has been fascinating. I have curated a list of seemingly int

I left the same comment on another thread about the Crimea attack: The war in Ukraine while tragic has been fascinating. I have curated a list of seemingly intelligent and informed open source intelligence (OSI) people on twitter that I have followed since early on. Most of them favor Ukraine and have been a bit optimistic. Still it is fascinating to follow a war in real time, with real reports. It is easy to see "the fog of war". An event will happen and a couple of weeks later you will understand that event in context. Ukraine has performed incredibly well in this war for being so outmatched. Russia has done poorly. The asymmetric warfare should make much of our military industrial complex quake in their boots. To my understanding, in addition to drones, sea drones (sea baby) and western military hardware, Ukraine has innovated with tactics and software. They have apparently developed advanced counter battery fire (firing at their howitzers) software that allows geographically dispersed units to coordinate. For this specific attack a couple of things are interesting. Over time Ukraine has eroded Russian anti aircraft batteries and radars, particularly in Crimea. This has forced Russia to either deploy more to Crimea or risk assets to slow moving missiles like this storm shadow attack. This attack was also well timed, happening late Christmas night at a period of presumably reduced readiness. My personal list of Ukraine twitter people https://twitter.com/i/lists/1502282049054552071 https://twitter.com/i/lists/1502282049054552071 The war on the rocks podcast. Michael Korfman shares particularly sober analyses (most summarized as "well this was a costly attack, but it's not decisive, this war will last a long time"). https://warontherocks.com/ https://warontherocks.com/