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So on the one hand you're objecting to "extrapolation" and on the other you're claiming that hypothesizing feedback mechanisms we don't know how to model, that
by MarkusQ 3y ago
So on the one hand you're objecting to "extrapolation" and on the other you're claiming that hypothesizing feedback mechanisms we don't know how to model, that have not been observed in humans, and so far as I know don't even exist should be fair game?
Look at Japan[1] -- roughly two thirds of their population is over than child bearing age, so even if the remaining third starting having babies at the replacement rate, their population will continue to diminish for decades. But of course their fertility rate in nowhere near replacement[2] and even the UN doesn't expect it to be that high in the foreseeable future.
[1] https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2023/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/japan/2023/
[2] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/JPN/japan/fertility-ra...
- vlovich123 3y agoWill the Japanese population disappear? A declining population isn’t the absolute end of the world. Human population has ebbed and flowed throughout time. What I’m saying is that we’re at 0 risk of a world wide population collapse. Also the feedback mechanism for sex selection isn’t some hypothetical thing I invented. Look up Trivers-Willard hypothesis. Whether there’s a similar social pressure mechanism that determines how many offspring someone has I don’t know, but it’s silly to rule it completely out of hand when we know that social pressure between people do impact number of children.