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That’s one way to put it. But more specifically they have customers with use cases studied in detail, where a modest quantum advantage becomes highly profitabl

by qmaybe 3y ago

That’s one way to put it. But more specifically they have customers with use cases studied in detail, where a modest quantum advantage becomes highly profitable, so all they need to do now is ship and the bookings will come in.

klyrs 3y ago
Sorry, but that's exactly the kool-aid swilling nonsense I'm talking about. Did you notice that your "all they need" is literally a quantum-computer shaped hole in the plan? You're curiously bullish on exactly one brand of vaporware. Why?
- qmaybe 3y ago
  I’m glad you brought this up. So there’s different levels of bullshit right ? Quantum has a level of bullshit where an enterprise could tell a customer their systems will solve P=NP. Clearly we don’t have information theory that supports that: we can only solve BQP better with them. The industry has customers with use cases proven for BQP with restricted quantum computers ready to go. The linked article leans to saying that’s not going to be true, but the companies out there building contradict this and say their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most. It could be another Tesla with self driving perpetually 2-4 years out. But look at waymo, clearly tech changes happen With what people are accomplishing today certainly seems closer to reality. But nobody has really shown us just yet As for “one brand of vaporwave” I’m cynical on quantinuum. If their tech was strong they would have raised without Honeywell.
  - klyrs 3y ago
    > I’m glad you brought this up. Look, I've been on this rock long enough to know when smoke is being blown up my ass and this phrase is at the top of the list.
  - DebtDeflation 3y ago
    >their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most Right. I'm sure these customers would be willing to spend billions of dollars on a working quantum computer that solves a business problem for them in the next 2-3 years. What GP is pointing out, however, is that statement presupposes that said quantum computer will actually exist. I would bet money that no such machine will be available for purchase in 2-3 years. What will exist in 2-3 years are more press releases about new QCs with even larger numbers of noisy physical qubits that still don't amount to a single fully error corrected logical qubit that can factor 35 without resorting to tricks like precompilation. Along with more press releases proclaiming loudly that commercial QCs are a mere 2-3 years away.

by qmaybe 3y ago

klyrs 3y ago

Sorry, but that's exactly the kool-aid swilling nonsense I'm talking about. Did you notice that your "all they need" is literally a quantum-computer shaped hole in the plan? You're curiously bullish on exactly one brand of vaporware. Why?

qmaybe 3y ago
I’m glad you brought this up. So there’s different levels of bullshit right ? Quantum has a level of bullshit where an enterprise could tell a customer their systems will solve P=NP. Clearly we don’t have information theory that supports that: we can only solve BQP better with them. The industry has customers with use cases proven for BQP with restricted quantum computers ready to go. The linked article leans to saying that’s not going to be true, but the companies out there building contradict this and say their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most. It could be another Tesla with self driving perpetually 2-4 years out. But look at waymo, clearly tech changes happen With what people are accomplishing today certainly seems closer to reality. But nobody has really shown us just yet As for “one brand of vaporwave” I’m cynical on quantinuum. If their tech was strong they would have raised without Honeywell.
- klyrs 3y ago
  > I’m glad you brought this up. Look, I've been on this rock long enough to know when smoke is being blown up my ass and this phrase is at the top of the list.
- DebtDeflation 3y ago
  >their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most Right. I'm sure these customers would be willing to spend billions of dollars on a working quantum computer that solves a business problem for them in the next 2-3 years. What GP is pointing out, however, is that statement presupposes that said quantum computer will actually exist. I would bet money that no such machine will be available for purchase in 2-3 years. What will exist in 2-3 years are more press releases about new QCs with even larger numbers of noisy physical qubits that still don't amount to a single fully error corrected logical qubit that can factor 35 without resorting to tricks like precompilation. Along with more press releases proclaiming loudly that commercial QCs are a mere 2-3 years away.