3 ms·

The roadmap of IONQ has them producing 64 logical qubits with error correction within 2025. Whether or not they succeed, I think time will tell as theyve stoppe

by qmaybe 3y ago

The roadmap of IONQ has them producing 64 logical qubits with error correction within 2025. Whether or not they succeed, I think time will tell as theyve stopped publishing and a cofounder stepped down to return to teaching and research. Quantinuum, the Honeywell merger, expects billions of revenue in 2026. Honeywell gave up on transmons and joined up with their $260m investment into Cambridge. Speaking of transmons, Rigetti is facing delisting IBM is still going hard on transmons and selling mainly to universities. Google had sycamore but were still waiting to see if they’ve solved the cascading errors inherent to scaling Microsoft invested heavily in majorna fermions for compute — which might not even exist. They are not an authority on the physics

klyrs 3y ago
What does "expects billions of revenue" mean, precisely?
- qmaybe 3y ago
  It means that they are willing to claim to the public that there is a business case for their technology providing billions in value in that year. They do not have the bookings.
  - klyrs 3y ago
    That's just execs tossing out big numbers about a market they don't understand. They do that all the time. Like babies, they cannot help but fill diapers. That doesn't mean we need to discuss it at the water cooler. Do they have hardware? Is it available? How many nines? Do they have a useful software stack? Does it give developers meaningful leverage to solve problems? The most incredible thing about quantum hype is that ordinarily detail-focused engineer types are getting snowed and buying it because the punchline is too good to be true. But sometimes, these companies make testable claims: if we'd only talk about the externally verifiable ones, and leave the vapor out of it, I think it would make for a much more interesting conversation.
    - qmaybe 3y ago
      That’s one way to put it. But more specifically they have customers with use cases studied in detail, where a modest quantum advantage becomes highly profitable, so all they need to do now is ship and the bookings will come in.
      - klyrs 3y ago
        Sorry, but that's exactly the kool-aid swilling nonsense I'm talking about. Did you notice that your "all they need" is literally a quantum-computer shaped hole in the plan? You're curiously bullish on exactly one brand of vaporware. Why?
        qmaybe 3y ago
        I’m glad you brought this up. So there’s different levels of bullshit right ? Quantum has a level of bullshit where an enterprise could tell a customer their systems will solve P=NP. Clearly we don’t have information theory that supports that: we can only solve BQP better with them. The industry has customers with use cases proven for BQP with restricted quantum computers ready to go. The linked article leans to saying that’s not going to be true, but the companies out there building contradict this and say their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most. It could be another Tesla with self driving perpetually 2-4 years out. But look at waymo, clearly tech changes happen With what people are accomplishing today certainly seems closer to reality. But nobody has really shown us just yet As for “one brand of vaporwave” I’m cynical on quantinuum. If their tech was strong they would have raised without Honeywell.
        klyrs 3y ago
        > I’m glad you brought this up. Look, I've been on this rock long enough to know when smoke is being blown up my ass and this phrase is at the top of the list.
        DebtDeflation 3y ago
        >their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most Right. I'm sure these customers would be willing to spend billions of dollars on a working quantum computer that solves a business problem for them in the next 2-3 years. What GP is pointing out, however, is that statement presupposes that said quantum computer will actually exist. I would bet money that no such machine will be available for purchase in 2-3 years. What will exist in 2-3 years are more press releases about new QCs with even larger numbers of noisy physical qubits that still don't amount to a single fully error corrected logical qubit that can factor 35 without resorting to tricks like precompilation. Along with more press releases proclaiming loudly that commercial QCs are a mere 2-3 years away.
the8472 3y ago
IBM's quantum roadmap[0] also looks... curious. There's some modest scaling until 2028. Then there sudden orders-of-magnitude jumps in the following years. Perhaps that's backed by technology they have in the labs and plan to have ready by then, but without details it looks too good to be true. [0] https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-12-04-IBM-Debuts-Next-Generation-Quantum-Processor-IBM-Quantum-System-Two,-Extends-Roadmap-to-Advance-Era-of-Quantum-Utility https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-12-04-IBM-Debuts-Next-Generati...
cashsterling 3y ago
Quantinuum does trapped-ion QC... nothing to do with transmons.

by qmaybe 3y ago

klyrs 3y ago

What does "expects billions of revenue" mean, precisely?

qmaybe 3y ago
It means that they are willing to claim to the public that there is a business case for their technology providing billions in value in that year. They do not have the bookings.
- klyrs 3y ago
  That's just execs tossing out big numbers about a market they don't understand. They do that all the time. Like babies, they cannot help but fill diapers. That doesn't mean we need to discuss it at the water cooler. Do they have hardware? Is it available? How many nines? Do they have a useful software stack? Does it give developers meaningful leverage to solve problems? The most incredible thing about quantum hype is that ordinarily detail-focused engineer types are getting snowed and buying it because the punchline is too good to be true. But sometimes, these companies make testable claims: if we'd only talk about the externally verifiable ones, and leave the vapor out of it, I think it would make for a much more interesting conversation.
  - qmaybe 3y ago
    That’s one way to put it. But more specifically they have customers with use cases studied in detail, where a modest quantum advantage becomes highly profitable, so all they need to do now is ship and the bookings will come in.
    - klyrs 3y ago
      Sorry, but that's exactly the kool-aid swilling nonsense I'm talking about. Did you notice that your "all they need" is literally a quantum-computer shaped hole in the plan? You're curiously bullish on exactly one brand of vaporware. Why?
      - qmaybe 3y ago
        I’m glad you brought this up. So there’s different levels of bullshit right ? Quantum has a level of bullshit where an enterprise could tell a customer their systems will solve P=NP. Clearly we don’t have information theory that supports that: we can only solve BQP better with them. The industry has customers with use cases proven for BQP with restricted quantum computers ready to go. The linked article leans to saying that’s not going to be true, but the companies out there building contradict this and say their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most. It could be another Tesla with self driving perpetually 2-4 years out. But look at waymo, clearly tech changes happen With what people are accomplishing today certainly seems closer to reality. But nobody has really shown us just yet As for “one brand of vaporwave” I’m cynical on quantinuum. If their tech was strong they would have raised without Honeywell.
        klyrs 3y ago
        > I’m glad you brought this up. Look, I've been on this rock long enough to know when smoke is being blown up my ass and this phrase is at the top of the list.
        DebtDeflation 3y ago
        >their customers will be ready to pull the trigger on billions in quantum compute in the next 2-3 years at most Right. I'm sure these customers would be willing to spend billions of dollars on a working quantum computer that solves a business problem for them in the next 2-3 years. What GP is pointing out, however, is that statement presupposes that said quantum computer will actually exist. I would bet money that no such machine will be available for purchase in 2-3 years. What will exist in 2-3 years are more press releases about new QCs with even larger numbers of noisy physical qubits that still don't amount to a single fully error corrected logical qubit that can factor 35 without resorting to tricks like precompilation. Along with more press releases proclaiming loudly that commercial QCs are a mere 2-3 years away.

the8472 3y ago

IBM's quantum roadmap[0] also looks... curious. There's some modest scaling until 2028. Then there sudden orders-of-magnitude jumps in the following years. Perhaps that's backed by technology they have in the labs and plan to have ready by then, but without details it looks too good to be true. [0] https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-12-04-IBM-Debuts-Next-Generation-Quantum-Processor-IBM-Quantum-System-Two,-Extends-Roadmap-to-Advance-Era-of-Quantum-Utility https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-12-04-IBM-Debuts-Next-Generati...

cashsterling 3y ago

Quantinuum does trapped-ion QC... nothing to do with transmons.