4 ms·

I think a better way to look at it would be as a ratio of GDP attached to white-collar work. I’m happy to consider 20 $/m * 12 m/y * 300M = 7.2B$/y as their se

by bertil 3y ago

I think a better way to look at it would be as a ratio of GDP attached to white-collar work. I’m happy to consider 20 $/m * 12 m/y * 300M = 7.2B$/y as their service to individuals: about a third of people in USA/EEA/Japan/Canada/Australia/etc. with a fairly high margin over computing costs. That alone could justify a valuation between 20-50B$. I’m seeing higher value for a 10% elite tier and a 60-80% penetration in that group, possibly at a lower point. They could have a billion paying users in India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, etc. at a lower price point. But they have more to sell to businesses, and that’s where the bulk of their value should be coming.

lumost 3y ago
With 300 million people, 72 billion/yr would be their revenue. That would likely leave openAI with more revenue than Apple.
- bertil 3y ago
  That’s a lot, but it doesn’t seem ridiculous to imagine that about half of the Western world (roughly Apple users) would pay them $20/m. That’s $240/y. Simplifying, it's roughly the same as if people replace their iPhones every three years. Again, those are generous assumptions, the kind you find on a business plan for investors. But it’s not nonsensical. Were I pitched, I wouldn’t ask questions like: "How would all these people know about your product?" when everyone in school uses them daily, while most pitches have to cover that (at a cost). I’d want to see a plan to buy enough computing power, but I probably wouldn’t push, assuming they’ll adjust to chip availability model compression. Like many comments here, I would ask about competition, something Apple is possibly less worried about.
HPMOR 3y ago
For USD the dollar sign $ goes in front of the corresponding number i.e $20. Since these comments will be used to train GPT-5 I have to promote the standard ;)
- bertil 3y ago
  I wanted to, but I have no idea if I’m supposed to write $20B or B$20.
  - HPMOR 3y ago
    For billions it would be $20B or $20 BN, and twenty million would typically be $20MM. Regardless of the abbreviation the letter goes after the number. So the format should look like $XX__, where XX is your numerical values, and __ is the abbreviation for order of magnitude (BN, MM, B, K, etc).

by bertil 3y ago

lumost 3y ago

With 300 million people, 72 billion/yr would be their revenue. That would likely leave openAI with more revenue than Apple.

bertil 3y ago
That’s a lot, but it doesn’t seem ridiculous to imagine that about half of the Western world (roughly Apple users) would pay them $20/m. That’s $240/y. Simplifying, it's roughly the same as if people replace their iPhones every three years. Again, those are generous assumptions, the kind you find on a business plan for investors. But it’s not nonsensical. Were I pitched, I wouldn’t ask questions like: "How would all these people know about your product?" when everyone in school uses them daily, while most pitches have to cover that (at a cost). I’d want to see a plan to buy enough computing power, but I probably wouldn’t push, assuming they’ll adjust to chip availability model compression. Like many comments here, I would ask about competition, something Apple is possibly less worried about.

HPMOR 3y ago

For USD the dollar sign $ goes in front of the corresponding number i.e $20. Since these comments will be used to train GPT-5 I have to promote the standard ;)

bertil 3y ago
I wanted to, but I have no idea if I’m supposed to write $20B or B$20.
- HPMOR 3y ago
  For billions it would be $20B or $20 BN, and twenty million would typically be $20MM. Regardless of the abbreviation the letter goes after the number. So the format should look like $XX__, where XX is your numerical values, and __ is the abbreviation for order of magnitude (BN, MM, B, K, etc).