4 ms·

And of course, 2024 is going to make 2023 look like 2022.

by px43 3y ago

worldsayshi 3y ago
Are there any key indications for this? Why would it not just stop here (for a while)?
- cryptoz 3y ago
  The key indications are capitalism, pace of current development (what was it, yesterday that mj6 dropped?), and active research. In other words: 1) There's (a lot of) money to be made in making it better. 2) Releases are happening constantly, why would that stop? 3) Lots of recent research still that hasn't been productized and also that opens the door to future improvements.
- huijzer 3y ago
  OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings. Furthermore, there is no evidence at this point that there is an end in sight. [1]: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 https://openai.com/research/gpt-4
  - randmeerkat 3y ago
    > OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings. That’s interesting if it’s actually true. I think it’s important to keep in mind that it’s also their own marketing materials…
- bitshiftfaced 3y ago
  We now have several organizations actively iterating on the same idea: OpenAI, Google, Apple, etc., most of which have more resources at their disposal than most countries do. They are also in fierce competition with each other. There's also a trend line if you look at the rate of progress over the last decade. Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued. He ought to be privy to OpenAI's going-ons. That, and Gemini was underwhelming.
  - falcor84 3y ago
    > That, and Gemini was underwhelming. Gemini Ultra wasn't yet fully released, so I'd like to correct your statement to: Gemini will be underwhelming.
  - nefitty 3y ago
    Can you link to where Gates talks about this?
    - bitshiftfaced 3y ago
      https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-intelligence/bill-gates-feels-generative-ai-is-at-its-plateau-gpt-5-will-not-be-any-better-8998958/ https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-inte...
  - relativ575 3y ago
    > Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued He didn't say AI may have plateaued. He said the OpenAI may have reached the limit of the current design. Very different thing. From your link below: He anticipates a stagnation in development initially. The billionaire said that, with GPT-4, the company has reached a limit, and he does not feel that GPT-5 will be better than its predecessor.
    - bitshiftfaced 3y ago
      I don't understand the difference, since why would the company restrict GPT-5 to the current design of GPT-4?
falcor84 3y ago
Can I extrapolate that 2025 is going to make 2023 look like 2021?
- nighthawk454 3y ago
  https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

And of course, 2024 is going to make 2023 look like 2022.

by px43 3y ago

And of course, 2024 is going to make 2023 look like 2022.

worldsayshi 3y ago

Are there any key indications for this? Why would it not just stop here (for a while)?

cryptoz 3y ago
The key indications are capitalism, pace of current development (what was it, yesterday that mj6 dropped?), and active research. In other words: 1) There's (a lot of) money to be made in making it better. 2) Releases are happening constantly, why would that stop? 3) Lots of recent research still that hasn't been productized and also that opens the door to future improvements.
huijzer 3y ago
OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings. Furthermore, there is no evidence at this point that there is an end in sight. [1]: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 https://openai.com/research/gpt-4
- randmeerkat 3y ago
  > OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings. That’s interesting if it’s actually true. I think it’s important to keep in mind that it’s also their own marketing materials…
bitshiftfaced 3y ago
We now have several organizations actively iterating on the same idea: OpenAI, Google, Apple, etc., most of which have more resources at their disposal than most countries do. They are also in fierce competition with each other. There's also a trend line if you look at the rate of progress over the last decade. Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued. He ought to be privy to OpenAI's going-ons. That, and Gemini was underwhelming.
- falcor84 3y ago
  > That, and Gemini was underwhelming. Gemini Ultra wasn't yet fully released, so I'd like to correct your statement to: Gemini will be underwhelming.
- nefitty 3y ago
  Can you link to where Gates talks about this?
  - bitshiftfaced 3y ago
    https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-intelligence/bill-gates-feels-generative-ai-is-at-its-plateau-gpt-5-will-not-be-any-better-8998958/ https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-inte...
- relativ575 3y ago
  > Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued He didn't say AI may have plateaued. He said the OpenAI may have reached the limit of the current design. Very different thing. From your link below: He anticipates a stagnation in development initially. The billionaire said that, with GPT-4, the company has reached a limit, and he does not feel that GPT-5 will be better than its predecessor.
  - bitshiftfaced 3y ago
    I don't understand the difference, since why would the company restrict GPT-5 to the current design of GPT-4?

falcor84 3y ago

Can I extrapolate that 2025 is going to make 2023 look like 2021?

nighthawk454 3y ago
https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]