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2023: A year of groundbreaking advances in AI and computing
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- px43 3y agoAnd of course, 2024 is going to make 2023 look like 2022.
- worldsayshi 3y agoAre there any key indications for this? Why would it not just stop here (for a while)?
- cryptoz 3y agoThe key indications are capitalism, pace of current development (what was it, yesterday that mj6 dropped?), and active research. In other words: 1) There's (a lot of) money to be made in making it better. 2) Releases are happening constantly, why would that stop? 3) Lots of recent research still that hasn't been productized and also that opens the door to future improvements.
- huijzer 3y agoOpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings. Furthermore, there is no evidence at this point that there is an end in sight. [1]: https://openai.com/research/gpt-4 https://openai.com/research/gpt-4
- randmeerkat 3y ago> OpenAI showed they can do capability extrapolate/predict (training loss) for the amount of compute they put in [1, see Predictable Scaling section]. This is also in line with earlier findings. That’s interesting if it’s actually true. I think it’s important to keep in mind that it’s also their own marketing materials…
- bitshiftfaced 3y agoWe now have several organizations actively iterating on the same idea: OpenAI, Google, Apple, etc., most of which have more resources at their disposal than most countries do. They are also in fierce competition with each other. There's also a trend line if you look at the rate of progress over the last decade. Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued. He ought to be privy to OpenAI's going-ons. That, and Gemini was underwhelming.
- falcor84 3y ago> That, and Gemini was underwhelming. Gemini Ultra wasn't yet fully released, so I'd like to correct your statement to: Gemini will be underwhelming.
- nefitty 3y agoCan you link to where Gates talks about this?
- bitshiftfaced 3y agohttps://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-intelligence/bill-gates-feels-generative-ai-is-at-its-plateau-gpt-5-will-not-be-any-better-8998958/ https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/artificial-inte...
- relativ575 3y ago> Then again, Bill Gates thinks it may have plateaued He didn't say AI may have plateaued. He said the OpenAI may have reached the limit of the current design. Very different thing. From your link below: He anticipates a stagnation in development initially. The billionaire said that, with GPT-4, the company has reached a limit, and he does not feel that GPT-5 will be better than its predecessor.
- bitshiftfaced 3y agoI don't understand the difference, since why would the company restrict GPT-5 to the current design of GPT-4?
- falcor84 3y agoCan I extrapolate that 2025 is going to make 2023 look like 2021?
- nighthawk454 3y agohttps://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- light_hue_1 3y agoGoogle with some of the best people in the world. Unlimited resources in almost every way, manages to fall further behind and further into irrelevance in AI. A bunch of closed models no one can run. A mediocre bard that is way behind everyone else. Pretty pathetic. Is anyone home at Google? Google's AI budget is higher than the total funding for AI at all US universities combined. It's just mind boggling how they can drop the ball so badly. What a change in fortunes. Just a few years ago it was the place to be and our PhD students were dying to work there.
- candiddevmike 3y agoGoogle probably has at least 5x the management bloat as the competitors and it's killing them. Too many cooks in the kitchen vying to be the next AI thought leader. They're acting like IBM to be honest.
- fnordpiglet 3y agoWell, Google has a bunch of people who tell themselves they’re the best in the world. I’ve known perfectly reasonable humans start working there and by the time the left they felt they were smarter. By that I mean, in general, smarter than others. You can’t be smarter, you can be smart, but smarter isn’t a state of being. But they definitely feel they are, and assume you know that too. When discussing work I had done with one they insisted I must have based it off of a Google paper, which they weren’t sure if there was one on it, but surely I didn’t do it myself. That level. One when confronted with the actual remit of their new job at a new company said “wow you hired an atom bomb to open a tin can.” They failed to achieve anything in two years and was fired.
- manmal 3y agoAre you suggesting Google is a narcissist incubator? (only slightly tongue in cheek)
- fnordpiglet 3y agoIf you’ve met Eric Schmidt you will know that is precisely what it is. His narcissism is boundless and he apparently figured out how to make it infectious.
- PedroBatista 3y ago[flagged]
- labrador 3y agoSimilar to how 1903 wasn't groundbreaking because Orville and Wilbur Wright merely upped their income potential from bicycle mechanics by building on work done on gasoline engines and lightweight construction techniques perfected in previous years
- htrp 3y agoThis has been kind of a bad year for Google AI Feb - Bard Launched with LaMDA -- Immediately replaced by Palm 2 backend within a month. May - Launched Palm2 with 4 different sizes, 2 of which were unusable (poor Gecko) and 1 of which was unavailable (unicorn being invite-only/ask your google rep), which replaced Palm-540. Will be replaced by Gemini Ultra apparently next year as "Bard Advanced" Launched Duet AI for both Workspace and Cloud, still compares unfavorably to GH Copilot. SGE basically caught up to ChatGPT web search with Bing June - Imagen released, results were ok, and immediately superseded by DallE3 within 3 months. November - Youtube releases AI Music generation, but only as part of their Music AI Incubator. Gemini launches with the infamous blue duck video. Gemini Ultra will likely be gatekept just like Palm2-Unicorn despite performance only matching GPT4/Turbo (and despite delaying their official launch by a quarter).
- cubefox 3y agoThey recently released Imagen 2, but now without any sort of benchmark or other academic details. https://deepmind.google/technologies/imagen-2/ https://deepmind.google/technologies/imagen-2/
- polygamous_bat 3y agoIf those numbers were any good you know they would be all over the press with them.
- rogerclark 3y agoBard is a really stupid name. I get the origin of the name, and it's a short word, and in some sense it's a nice vibe with implications of a mystical poet or whatever. But it's a word that most people don't use. As many have commented, ChatGPT is a pretty bad name too -- people get the order of the letters wrong all the time -- but at least it starts with "Chat", which explains what you're supposed to do with it.
- LouisSayers 3y agoBard sounds way too close to "bad" or "beard" depending on accent. It's a terrible name.
- m3kw9 3y agoNext year is the year of model miniaturization, gpt4 performance on smart phones, likely for latest models
- atleastoptimal 3y agoEvery year from now in AI will make the previous year seem inconsequential
- nojvek 3y agoEvery other lab is likely working very hard just so they can leave Google behind and build the next actually usable Search Engine & Portal (Browser / App Store). I’m really hoping a new player displaces Alphabet and Meta (the ad giants).