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But it also takes away Tesla's biggest advantage, no? The charging network was a big reason to buy a tesla and now that's gone. So perhaps they will actually e

But it also takes away Tesla's biggest advantage, no? The charging network was a big reason to buy a tesla and now that's gone. So perhaps they will actually end up losing more revenue than gaining.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
adrianN 3y ago
I would expect that in the near future EVs become commodities based on a small handful of licensed platforms. Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms.
- mupuff1234 3y ago
  Maybe, but a charging network is not quite a trillion dollar business, not to mention that the charging network will also become a commodity (especially since the charging protocol is open)
- bluGill 3y ago
  I disagree. People like their car to look new/different, and volumes on cars are high enough that the advantages of a custom platform is worth the cost of designing it.
  - adrianN 3y ago
    The design of the car is only loosely related to the skateboard that contains the battery and the drivetrain.
    - tomatotomato37 3y ago
      Considering 90% of modern consumer automobiles use a monocoque frame the design means everything to the chassis
      - adrianN 3y ago
        All cars made by the Volkswagen group are based on like 20 platforms. For example the Audi A3 and the Skoda Yeti are the same platform. They look quite different.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      Skateboard makes even less sense for EVs than for ICEs. in an ICE you have a large engine and various axels that have to be in specific places. With an EV you have more room to move the motors around where they makes sense. While you need a lot of batteries, each cell is small, so you want to put things like seats in the car first and then add cells anywhere there is extra room.
      - sbininit 3y ago
        Yeah some cars (like the polestar) have really shallow rear-seat legroom, which was a total showstopper. They could have move some of those batteries to the trunk/frunk
        yurishimo 3y ago
        They could, but there is also a cost to separating the batteries. More cables, which means more resistance, which means inefficiency. Not to mention the extra design and manufacturing costs. In practice, I don't think any company is meaningfully splitting up their battery pack to take advantage of "better" packaging logistics elsewhere in the frame/body. I know in this example, they could still likely be loosely attached in the same plane, but with less density under the cabin, but I think my point holds.
  - Skunkleton 3y ago
    > People like their car to look new/different That's true in my experience. Though it is interesting that cars look more and more similar over time rather than different.
    - ghaff 3y ago
      There are probably two main answers to that. - People generally like their vehicles to look different but not too different. Design of everything is a fashion industry. - Fuel efficiency, practicality, and safety requirements all lead to a certain level of convergence.
- 0xffff2 3y ago
  Why would this be true for EVs when it's clearly not true for ICE vehicles?
- phkahler 3y ago
  >> Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms. Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Building out a "platform" to sell commodity electrons is utterly stupid. Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat.
  - tw04 3y ago
    >Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? > Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat. So you should put your chargers near convenient amenities... like a convenience store... like a gas station?
    - ffgjgf1 3y ago
      > Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? If you only sell gas and nothing else you can only compete on price. Good luck with that.
    - wil421 3y ago
      Tesla isn’t building C-Stores that sell Gas or Electrons. The superchargers I’ve seen are in some random parking lot without a restroom or convenience store selling stuff.
      - bluGill 3y ago
        Some of them, but I've also seen Tesla at various truck stops. In rural areas building at a convenience store make sense: they already have restrooms, some form of restaurant and various other things to buy on site - everything a traveler needs for a quick break to fill the car before getting back on the road. In cities I think we will see less chargers as most people just go home to charge. However in poor areas they will be at places like grocery stores so you those who don't have at-home charging can charge and shop.
    - 3y ago
bluGill 3y ago
If Tesla hasn't played nice they would have lost too as everyone else rolled out the CCS standard cars networks would have responded and most chargers wouldn't support your Tesla.
toddmorey 3y ago
I wonder how profitable operating the charging network is. I've always thought they probably operate the locations at break even at best, but I honestly don't know. I do think any Tesla owner will tell you the charging infra is always scales behind demand and there are often delays waiting for an available spot. Hopefully a universal standard means more operators will participate. I just hope the payment experience can remain seamless.
yardie 3y ago
I feel the bigger goal is the viability of the network effect (clustering) of electric cars. When Tesla was the only electric car company most buyers thought it was neat but didn't really consider it. A lot of buyers want their next vehicle to be EV but have range anxiety. While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. More competition drives more churn which creates more transactions.
- chrisjc 3y ago
  > While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your statement, but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That includes ICE vehicles, not just EVs. If you exclude trucks, I think it has also recently become the best selling car in the US, overtaking the Rav4.
  - FireBeyond 3y ago
    > but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That doesn't directly correlate to marketshare. The MY is going to need many many quarters of being the best selling car to have marketshare equal to many other ICE models.
  - yardie 3y ago
    Tesla is intentionally obtuse about their numbers. But the Corolla still reigns supreme at +700k. They combine the total sales of 3+Y against the Corolla. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tes...
SCM-Enthusiast 3y ago
is it really gone? Tesla will still have a OEM advantage here in the software and internals. Alot of the "Technology" here is the software that does thermal management and the like. Tesla's still charge faster on a supercharger than a ford f-150 would, and i imagine some future where buying a Tesla gets you "Credits" to use at the chargers. Tesla has much different goals than the other car manufacturers. Although energy sales are only around 5% of total revenue, Tesla expects that to change going forward.
- agloe_dreams 3y ago
  Tesla already charges more to charge a non-tesla.
malermeister 3y ago
Tesla was always going to lose the EV battle in the long run - if not to VW and co, then to BYD and co. This lets them pivot to something where they have a huge moat.
- bluGill 3y ago
  They have less a moat here. Anyone can buy a level 3 charger and install it. while the economics of that are not clear, they are becoming clearer as EVs catch on. Many gas stations are looking at if chargers make sense long term, and if it does they will also install chargers.
- hnburnsy 3y ago
  Seems like the auto market is plenty large enough for multiple winners.
- kcb 3y ago
  Will Tesla slowly reduce market share as the market grows? Yes, But I don't see a situation where Tesla doesn't have quite a while of sales growth and best in class EVs.
agloe_dreams 3y ago
Yes and no. Tesla already has the #1 selling car (Model Y) and makes up more than half of EVs sold in the US. Eventually other networks were going to catch up. Now the other half will pay them too but they own the network. Long term it was the right choice.
- mupuff1234 3y ago
  But like you said, other networks will eventually catch up so long term tesla won't control the network either.
  - agloe_dreams 3y ago
    I think this actually helps Tesla in that department in another way - By everyone switching to NACS the entire fleet of CCS is now an adapter away. People will just default to NACS chargers...that will by majority be Tesla. Then Tesla can reinvest in charging stations with this new money and flood the market. Tesla could wholly snuff the market out while the companies are busy retrofitting chargers with Tesla's own plug.
CapitalistCartr 3y ago
People buy Teslas because they like them. Although chargers are necessary, they aren't sufficient. Walmart has had 25 years to outcompete Amazon, and is still clueless. Phone makers have had 15 years to beat Apple, and the competition is still not as polished. (Personally, I don't prefer Teslas or iPhones.)
bwat49 3y ago
Fragmented infrastructure benefits no one. Imagine if you could only fill up your ICE vehicle at shell stations because of your vehicle's brand. Fragmentation of the charging infrastructure puts a hard limit on EV adoption, they will never replace ICE vehicles unless the infrastructure becomes as ubiquitous as gas stations.
- izacus 3y ago
  It benefits Tesla right now - because people bought Teslas due to their charging network. It'll stop being a big benefit and that's great for competition.
- ggreer 3y ago
  It's hard to make direct analogies because unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Fast DC chargers are mostly for road trips. And while it's a good thing that everyone has adopted the same charging standard, branding is just as important. Gas at gas stations is fungible. EV chargers are most certainly not. Right now Tesla's charging network is the only option that is fast and reliable.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    So long as the charger supports the same connector they all work - some might be a level2 charger that takes forever, but you plug it into any car. Gas stations can choose from 3-10 grades of gas (octane, ethanol content, road tax) to sell, and 2-6 grades of diesel (cetane, gel point, road tax) depending on what the distributor offers - no station sells them all (at least not that I'm aware of), and getting the wrong fuel can be fatal. Stations also can choose their own additive package which can make a difference. Note that in almost all cases there is only one distributor you can buy from. Electric is generally a legal monopoly, while gasoline the closest supplier generally has a pipeline and thus can offer much cheaper prices so while it is legal to buy elsewhere it isn't practical.
  - shkkmo 3y ago
    > unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Only for the subset of the population that owns a home with off street parking. People in denser neighborhoods, appartments buildings or who rent their property will be looking to top off while running errands or at work.
highwaylights 3y ago
Honestly I doubt it. Musk already said himself that the company hinges on getting to full self-driving eventually, so it wouldn’t be surprising if every other decision is ultimately in service of that however unlikely it now seems. Either way, I think it’s terrific business. Would you rather have a dependable advantage that helps you stay further ahead of competitors in one industry, or have slightly less of an advantage (when you’re already in the lead) and get to dominate a whole second industry too (gas stations, for which superchargers have no peers in the EV world).
- ethanbond 3y ago
  Every new manufacturer switching to the Tesla standard further incentivizes e.g. BP, Shell, etc. to offer charging though. I don't see why they'd dominate this space.
  - highwaylights 3y ago
    Im working on the assumption that they’d need Tesla’s consent to use their interface and protocols.
    - chrisjc 3y ago
      Nope. Tesla has opened up the standard, but there are a few caveats.
  - chrisjc 3y ago
    Exactly. But with a twist: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi... https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet...
chrisjc 3y ago
Not necessarily. Using the plug doesn't imply that you have to use Tesla's charging network, even while still using Tesla's charging hardware. Tesla is already working on deals to sell their super/ultra-fast chargers to others like EG Group and BP. Expect the number of those deals to grow. I would argue that this will benefit those with with Teslas. As Tesla scales up to meet the demand for their charging hardware, the cost should drop while availability increases. Moreover, as the number of independent networks that use Tesla's charging hardware grows, there will be additional pressure/leverage/lobbying on the government, electric companies, etc to provide the behind-the-scenes infrastructure that theses charging locations require. Tesla has on numerous occasions asserted that this is one of the most difficult parts of growing their charging network in places that have the greatest demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi...
basiccalendar74 3y ago
by opening up supercharging network, Tesla becomes eligible for billions of federal money. that tips the scales towards open superchargers.

But it also takes away Tesla's biggest advantage, no? The charging network was a big reason to buy a tesla and now that's gone. So perhaps they will actually end up losing more revenue than gaining.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

adrianN 3y ago

I would expect that in the near future EVs become commodities based on a small handful of licensed platforms. Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms.

mupuff1234 3y ago
Maybe, but a charging network is not quite a trillion dollar business, not to mention that the charging network will also become a commodity (especially since the charging protocol is open)
bluGill 3y ago
I disagree. People like their car to look new/different, and volumes on cars are high enough that the advantages of a custom platform is worth the cost of designing it.
- adrianN 3y ago
  The design of the car is only loosely related to the skateboard that contains the battery and the drivetrain.
  - tomatotomato37 3y ago
    Considering 90% of modern consumer automobiles use a monocoque frame the design means everything to the chassis
    - adrianN 3y ago
      All cars made by the Volkswagen group are based on like 20 platforms. For example the Audi A3 and the Skoda Yeti are the same platform. They look quite different.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    Skateboard makes even less sense for EVs than for ICEs. in an ICE you have a large engine and various axels that have to be in specific places. With an EV you have more room to move the motors around where they makes sense. While you need a lot of batteries, each cell is small, so you want to put things like seats in the car first and then add cells anywhere there is extra room.
    - sbininit 3y ago
      Yeah some cars (like the polestar) have really shallow rear-seat legroom, which was a total showstopper. They could have move some of those batteries to the trunk/frunk
      - yurishimo 3y ago
        They could, but there is also a cost to separating the batteries. More cables, which means more resistance, which means inefficiency. Not to mention the extra design and manufacturing costs. In practice, I don't think any company is meaningfully splitting up their battery pack to take advantage of "better" packaging logistics elsewhere in the frame/body. I know in this example, they could still likely be loosely attached in the same plane, but with less density under the cabin, but I think my point holds.
- Skunkleton 3y ago
  > People like their car to look new/different That's true in my experience. Though it is interesting that cars look more and more similar over time rather than different.
  - ghaff 3y ago
    There are probably two main answers to that. - People generally like their vehicles to look different but not too different. Design of everything is a fashion industry. - Fuel efficiency, practicality, and safety requirements all lead to a certain level of convergence.
0xffff2 3y ago
Why would this be true for EVs when it's clearly not true for ICE vehicles?
phkahler 3y ago
>> Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms. Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Building out a "platform" to sell commodity electrons is utterly stupid. Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat.
- tw04 3y ago
  >Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? > Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat. So you should put your chargers near convenient amenities... like a convenience store... like a gas station?
  - ffgjgf1 3y ago
    > Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? If you only sell gas and nothing else you can only compete on price. Good luck with that.
  - wil421 3y ago
    Tesla isn’t building C-Stores that sell Gas or Electrons. The superchargers I’ve seen are in some random parking lot without a restroom or convenience store selling stuff.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      Some of them, but I've also seen Tesla at various truck stops. In rural areas building at a convenience store make sense: they already have restrooms, some form of restaurant and various other things to buy on site - everything a traveler needs for a quick break to fill the car before getting back on the road. In cities I think we will see less chargers as most people just go home to charge. However in poor areas they will be at places like grocery stores so you those who don't have at-home charging can charge and shop.
  - 3y ago

bluGill 3y ago

If Tesla hasn't played nice they would have lost too as everyone else rolled out the CCS standard cars networks would have responded and most chargers wouldn't support your Tesla.

toddmorey 3y ago

I wonder how profitable operating the charging network is. I've always thought they probably operate the locations at break even at best, but I honestly don't know. I do think any Tesla owner will tell you the charging infra is always scales behind demand and there are often delays waiting for an available spot. Hopefully a universal standard means more operators will participate. I just hope the payment experience can remain seamless.

yardie 3y ago

I feel the bigger goal is the viability of the network effect (clustering) of electric cars. When Tesla was the only electric car company most buyers thought it was neat but didn't really consider it. A lot of buyers want their next vehicle to be EV but have range anxiety. While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. More competition drives more churn which creates more transactions.

chrisjc 3y ago
> While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your statement, but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That includes ICE vehicles, not just EVs. If you exclude trucks, I think it has also recently become the best selling car in the US, overtaking the Rav4.
- FireBeyond 3y ago
  > but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That doesn't directly correlate to marketshare. The MY is going to need many many quarters of being the best selling car to have marketshare equal to many other ICE models.
- yardie 3y ago
  Tesla is intentionally obtuse about their numbers. But the Corolla still reigns supreme at +700k. They combine the total sales of 3+Y against the Corolla. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tes...

SCM-Enthusiast 3y ago

is it really gone? Tesla will still have a OEM advantage here in the software and internals. Alot of the "Technology" here is the software that does thermal management and the like. Tesla's still charge faster on a supercharger than a ford f-150 would, and i imagine some future where buying a Tesla gets you "Credits" to use at the chargers. Tesla has much different goals than the other car manufacturers. Although energy sales are only around 5% of total revenue, Tesla expects that to change going forward.

agloe_dreams 3y ago
Tesla already charges more to charge a non-tesla.

malermeister 3y ago

Tesla was always going to lose the EV battle in the long run - if not to VW and co, then to BYD and co. This lets them pivot to something where they have a huge moat.

bluGill 3y ago
They have less a moat here. Anyone can buy a level 3 charger and install it. while the economics of that are not clear, they are becoming clearer as EVs catch on. Many gas stations are looking at if chargers make sense long term, and if it does they will also install chargers.
hnburnsy 3y ago
Seems like the auto market is plenty large enough for multiple winners.
kcb 3y ago
Will Tesla slowly reduce market share as the market grows? Yes, But I don't see a situation where Tesla doesn't have quite a while of sales growth and best in class EVs.

agloe_dreams 3y ago

Yes and no. Tesla already has the #1 selling car (Model Y) and makes up more than half of EVs sold in the US. Eventually other networks were going to catch up. Now the other half will pay them too but they own the network. Long term it was the right choice.

mupuff1234 3y ago
But like you said, other networks will eventually catch up so long term tesla won't control the network either.
- agloe_dreams 3y ago
  I think this actually helps Tesla in that department in another way - By everyone switching to NACS the entire fleet of CCS is now an adapter away. People will just default to NACS chargers...that will by majority be Tesla. Then Tesla can reinvest in charging stations with this new money and flood the market. Tesla could wholly snuff the market out while the companies are busy retrofitting chargers with Tesla's own plug.

CapitalistCartr 3y ago

People buy Teslas because they like them. Although chargers are necessary, they aren't sufficient. Walmart has had 25 years to outcompete Amazon, and is still clueless. Phone makers have had 15 years to beat Apple, and the competition is still not as polished. (Personally, I don't prefer Teslas or iPhones.)

bwat49 3y ago

Fragmented infrastructure benefits no one. Imagine if you could only fill up your ICE vehicle at shell stations because of your vehicle's brand. Fragmentation of the charging infrastructure puts a hard limit on EV adoption, they will never replace ICE vehicles unless the infrastructure becomes as ubiquitous as gas stations.

izacus 3y ago
It benefits Tesla right now - because people bought Teslas due to their charging network. It'll stop being a big benefit and that's great for competition.
ggreer 3y ago
It's hard to make direct analogies because unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Fast DC chargers are mostly for road trips. And while it's a good thing that everyone has adopted the same charging standard, branding is just as important. Gas at gas stations is fungible. EV chargers are most certainly not. Right now Tesla's charging network is the only option that is fast and reliable.
- bluGill 3y ago
  So long as the charger supports the same connector they all work - some might be a level2 charger that takes forever, but you plug it into any car. Gas stations can choose from 3-10 grades of gas (octane, ethanol content, road tax) to sell, and 2-6 grades of diesel (cetane, gel point, road tax) depending on what the distributor offers - no station sells them all (at least not that I'm aware of), and getting the wrong fuel can be fatal. Stations also can choose their own additive package which can make a difference. Note that in almost all cases there is only one distributor you can buy from. Electric is generally a legal monopoly, while gasoline the closest supplier generally has a pipeline and thus can offer much cheaper prices so while it is legal to buy elsewhere it isn't practical.
- shkkmo 3y ago
  > unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Only for the subset of the population that owns a home with off street parking. People in denser neighborhoods, appartments buildings or who rent their property will be looking to top off while running errands or at work.

highwaylights 3y ago

Honestly I doubt it. Musk already said himself that the company hinges on getting to full self-driving eventually, so it wouldn’t be surprising if every other decision is ultimately in service of that however unlikely it now seems. Either way, I think it’s terrific business. Would you rather have a dependable advantage that helps you stay further ahead of competitors in one industry, or have slightly less of an advantage (when you’re already in the lead) and get to dominate a whole second industry too (gas stations, for which superchargers have no peers in the EV world).

ethanbond 3y ago
Every new manufacturer switching to the Tesla standard further incentivizes e.g. BP, Shell, etc. to offer charging though. I don't see why they'd dominate this space.
- highwaylights 3y ago
  Im working on the assumption that they’d need Tesla’s consent to use their interface and protocols.
  - chrisjc 3y ago
    Nope. Tesla has opened up the standard, but there are a few caveats.
- chrisjc 3y ago
  Exactly. But with a twist: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi... https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet...

chrisjc 3y ago

Not necessarily. Using the plug doesn't imply that you have to use Tesla's charging network, even while still using Tesla's charging hardware. Tesla is already working on deals to sell their super/ultra-fast chargers to others like EG Group and BP. Expect the number of those deals to grow. I would argue that this will benefit those with with Teslas. As Tesla scales up to meet the demand for their charging hardware, the cost should drop while availability increases. Moreover, as the number of independent networks that use Tesla's charging hardware grows, there will be additional pressure/leverage/lobbying on the government, electric companies, etc to provide the behind-the-scenes infrastructure that theses charging locations require. Tesla has on numerous occasions asserted that this is one of the most difficult parts of growing their charging network in places that have the greatest demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi...

basiccalendar74 3y ago

by opening up supercharging network, Tesla becomes eligible for billions of federal money. that tips the scales towards open superchargers.