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I think people are missing the big story here. This is Tesla winning the charging network battle (it wasn't close before this). Any EV car (which will eventuall

I think people are missing the big story here. This is Tesla winning the charging network battle (it wasn't close before this). Any EV car (which will eventually be all cars) will immediately be available for Tesla's supercharger network. This gives Tesla a massive revenue stream and scale to grow that network even bigger. Anyone who wants their superchargers has to also support all Teslas.

mupuff1234 3y ago
But it also takes away Tesla's biggest advantage, no? The charging network was a big reason to buy a tesla and now that's gone. So perhaps they will actually end up losing more revenue than gaining.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- adrianN 3y ago
  I would expect that in the near future EVs become commodities based on a small handful of licensed platforms. Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms.
  - mupuff1234 3y ago
    Maybe, but a charging network is not quite a trillion dollar business, not to mention that the charging network will also become a commodity (especially since the charging protocol is open)
  - bluGill 3y ago
    I disagree. People like their car to look new/different, and volumes on cars are high enough that the advantages of a custom platform is worth the cost of designing it.
    - adrianN 3y ago
      The design of the car is only loosely related to the skateboard that contains the battery and the drivetrain.
      - tomatotomato37 3y ago
        Considering 90% of modern consumer automobiles use a monocoque frame the design means everything to the chassis
        adrianN 3y ago
        All cars made by the Volkswagen group are based on like 20 platforms. For example the Audi A3 and the Skoda Yeti are the same platform. They look quite different.
      - bluGill 3y ago
        Skateboard makes even less sense for EVs than for ICEs. in an ICE you have a large engine and various axels that have to be in specific places. With an EV you have more room to move the motors around where they makes sense. While you need a lot of batteries, each cell is small, so you want to put things like seats in the car first and then add cells anywhere there is extra room.
        sbininit 3y ago
        Yeah some cars (like the polestar) have really shallow rear-seat legroom, which was a total showstopper. They could have move some of those batteries to the trunk/frunk
        yurishimo 3y ago
        They could, but there is also a cost to separating the batteries. More cables, which means more resistance, which means inefficiency. Not to mention the extra design and manufacturing costs. In practice, I don't think any company is meaningfully splitting up their battery pack to take advantage of "better" packaging logistics elsewhere in the frame/body. I know in this example, they could still likely be loosely attached in the same plane, but with less density under the cabin, but I think my point holds.
  - 0xffff2 3y ago
    Why would this be true for EVs when it's clearly not true for ICE vehicles?
  - phkahler 3y ago
    >> Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms. Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Building out a "platform" to sell commodity electrons is utterly stupid. Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat.
    - tw04 3y ago
      >Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? > Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat. So you should put your chargers near convenient amenities... like a convenience store... like a gas station?
      - ffgjgf1 3y ago
        > Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? If you only sell gas and nothing else you can only compete on price. Good luck with that.
      - wil421 3y ago
        Tesla isn’t building C-Stores that sell Gas or Electrons. The superchargers I’ve seen are in some random parking lot without a restroom or convenience store selling stuff.
        bluGill 3y ago
        Some of them, but I've also seen Tesla at various truck stops. In rural areas building at a convenience store make sense: they already have restrooms, some form of restaurant and various other things to buy on site - everything a traveler needs for a quick break to fill the car before getting back on the road. In cities I think we will see less chargers as most people just go home to charge. However in poor areas they will be at places like grocery stores so you those who don't have at-home charging can charge and shop.
      - 3y ago
- bluGill 3y ago
  If Tesla hasn't played nice they would have lost too as everyone else rolled out the CCS standard cars networks would have responded and most chargers wouldn't support your Tesla.
- toddmorey 3y ago
  I wonder how profitable operating the charging network is. I've always thought they probably operate the locations at break even at best, but I honestly don't know. I do think any Tesla owner will tell you the charging infra is always scales behind demand and there are often delays waiting for an available spot. Hopefully a universal standard means more operators will participate. I just hope the payment experience can remain seamless.
- yardie 3y ago
  I feel the bigger goal is the viability of the network effect (clustering) of electric cars. When Tesla was the only electric car company most buyers thought it was neat but didn't really consider it. A lot of buyers want their next vehicle to be EV but have range anxiety. While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. More competition drives more churn which creates more transactions.
  - chrisjc 3y ago
    > While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your statement, but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That includes ICE vehicles, not just EVs. If you exclude trucks, I think it has also recently become the best selling car in the US, overtaking the Rav4.
    - FireBeyond 3y ago
      > but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That doesn't directly correlate to marketshare. The MY is going to need many many quarters of being the best selling car to have marketshare equal to many other ICE models.
    - yardie 3y ago
      Tesla is intentionally obtuse about their numbers. But the Corolla still reigns supreme at +700k. They combine the total sales of 3+Y against the Corolla. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tes...
- SCM-Enthusiast 3y ago
  is it really gone? Tesla will still have a OEM advantage here in the software and internals. Alot of the "Technology" here is the software that does thermal management and the like. Tesla's still charge faster on a supercharger than a ford f-150 would, and i imagine some future where buying a Tesla gets you "Credits" to use at the chargers. Tesla has much different goals than the other car manufacturers. Although energy sales are only around 5% of total revenue, Tesla expects that to change going forward.
  - agloe_dreams 3y ago
    Tesla already charges more to charge a non-tesla.
- malermeister 3y ago
  Tesla was always going to lose the EV battle in the long run - if not to VW and co, then to BYD and co. This lets them pivot to something where they have a huge moat.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    They have less a moat here. Anyone can buy a level 3 charger and install it. while the economics of that are not clear, they are becoming clearer as EVs catch on. Many gas stations are looking at if chargers make sense long term, and if it does they will also install chargers.
  - hnburnsy 3y ago
    Seems like the auto market is plenty large enough for multiple winners.
  - kcb 3y ago
    Will Tesla slowly reduce market share as the market grows? Yes, But I don't see a situation where Tesla doesn't have quite a while of sales growth and best in class EVs.
- agloe_dreams 3y ago
  Yes and no. Tesla already has the #1 selling car (Model Y) and makes up more than half of EVs sold in the US. Eventually other networks were going to catch up. Now the other half will pay them too but they own the network. Long term it was the right choice.
  - mupuff1234 3y ago
    But like you said, other networks will eventually catch up so long term tesla won't control the network either.
    - agloe_dreams 3y ago
      I think this actually helps Tesla in that department in another way - By everyone switching to NACS the entire fleet of CCS is now an adapter away. People will just default to NACS chargers...that will by majority be Tesla. Then Tesla can reinvest in charging stations with this new money and flood the market. Tesla could wholly snuff the market out while the companies are busy retrofitting chargers with Tesla's own plug.
- CapitalistCartr 3y ago
  People buy Teslas because they like them. Although chargers are necessary, they aren't sufficient. Walmart has had 25 years to outcompete Amazon, and is still clueless. Phone makers have had 15 years to beat Apple, and the competition is still not as polished. (Personally, I don't prefer Teslas or iPhones.)
- bwat49 3y ago
  Fragmented infrastructure benefits no one. Imagine if you could only fill up your ICE vehicle at shell stations because of your vehicle's brand. Fragmentation of the charging infrastructure puts a hard limit on EV adoption, they will never replace ICE vehicles unless the infrastructure becomes as ubiquitous as gas stations.
  - izacus 3y ago
    It benefits Tesla right now - because people bought Teslas due to their charging network. It'll stop being a big benefit and that's great for competition.
  - ggreer 3y ago
    It's hard to make direct analogies because unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Fast DC chargers are mostly for road trips. And while it's a good thing that everyone has adopted the same charging standard, branding is just as important. Gas at gas stations is fungible. EV chargers are most certainly not. Right now Tesla's charging network is the only option that is fast and reliable.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      So long as the charger supports the same connector they all work - some might be a level2 charger that takes forever, but you plug it into any car. Gas stations can choose from 3-10 grades of gas (octane, ethanol content, road tax) to sell, and 2-6 grades of diesel (cetane, gel point, road tax) depending on what the distributor offers - no station sells them all (at least not that I'm aware of), and getting the wrong fuel can be fatal. Stations also can choose their own additive package which can make a difference. Note that in almost all cases there is only one distributor you can buy from. Electric is generally a legal monopoly, while gasoline the closest supplier generally has a pipeline and thus can offer much cheaper prices so while it is legal to buy elsewhere it isn't practical.
    - shkkmo 3y ago
      > unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Only for the subset of the population that owns a home with off street parking. People in denser neighborhoods, appartments buildings or who rent their property will be looking to top off while running errands or at work.
- highwaylights 3y ago
  Honestly I doubt it. Musk already said himself that the company hinges on getting to full self-driving eventually, so it wouldn’t be surprising if every other decision is ultimately in service of that however unlikely it now seems. Either way, I think it’s terrific business. Would you rather have a dependable advantage that helps you stay further ahead of competitors in one industry, or have slightly less of an advantage (when you’re already in the lead) and get to dominate a whole second industry too (gas stations, for which superchargers have no peers in the EV world).
  - ethanbond 3y ago
    Every new manufacturer switching to the Tesla standard further incentivizes e.g. BP, Shell, etc. to offer charging though. I don't see why they'd dominate this space.
    - highwaylights 3y ago
      Im working on the assumption that they’d need Tesla’s consent to use their interface and protocols.
      - chrisjc 3y ago
        Nope. Tesla has opened up the standard, but there are a few caveats.
    - chrisjc 3y ago
      Exactly. But with a twist: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi... https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet...
- chrisjc 3y ago
  Not necessarily. Using the plug doesn't imply that you have to use Tesla's charging network, even while still using Tesla's charging hardware. Tesla is already working on deals to sell their super/ultra-fast chargers to others like EG Group and BP. Expect the number of those deals to grow. I would argue that this will benefit those with with Teslas. As Tesla scales up to meet the demand for their charging hardware, the cost should drop while availability increases. Moreover, as the number of independent networks that use Tesla's charging hardware grows, there will be additional pressure/leverage/lobbying on the government, electric companies, etc to provide the behind-the-scenes infrastructure that theses charging locations require. Tesla has on numerous occasions asserted that this is one of the most difficult parts of growing their charging network in places that have the greatest demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi...
- basiccalendar74 3y ago
  by opening up supercharging network, Tesla becomes eligible for billions of federal money. that tips the scales towards open superchargers.
1970-01-01 3y ago
The actual gains are never discussed. It could be massive or much less than you expect.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  https://electrek.co/2023/08/25/tesla-supercharger-network-billion-business-wedbush/ https://electrek.co/2023/08/25/tesla-supercharger-network-bi... ("Tesla Supercharger network to become $10 to $20 billion a year business, says Wedbush") > With Tesla now having a fleet of millions of vehicles using the network and opening it up to EVs from other automakers, financial analysts are starting to see the Supercharger network has a massive business that is going to partly replace gas stations, and they want to value it. > Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who has been covering Tesla for a long time, came out with a new note to clients today in which he stated that he believes the Supercharger network will represent 3% to 6% of Tesla’s total revenue or $10 to $20 billion in revenue by 2030.
  - 1970-01-01 3y ago
    Estimates aren't gains. Something in their financials report would be a much better and accurate representation of gains.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Valuations and future revenue expectations are based on forecasting, based on currently available information.
- intrasight 3y ago
  At least they are not charging a license fee for the connector.
  - jmac01 3y ago
    Yet
Spivak 3y ago
> which will eventually be all cars God I hope that day is long long in the future given the current ecosystem surrounding this crap. The last thing I want to add to my car is the multi-variant USB-C, thunderbolt, lightning adapter bullshit with accounts and subscriptions. It's the very worst of tech bro culture applied to critical infrastructure. What if the car makers owned and/or could strike deals with specific gas stations is an idea that only sounds good in a shareholder's mind. Every day as car companies try to turn cars into toasters with subscription bread I'm happier with my ICE car / ebike setup. Gas used almost every day, 0. Range anxiety, 0. Using infrastructure that has been stable for longer than my parents have been alive, priceless.
- justrealist 3y ago
  I have a Tesla with no subscription and a single plug I use when I go out. Not sure what you are on about.
- lostlogin 3y ago
  You can plug in at home and use chargers very rarely. After a year or so, I’m yet to try use one. I guess this very much depends on your driving patterns.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    Anyone who has an ICE car will probably still prefer that for long trips. Most people are multiple car families and so will have that choice today. Even if the EV was the choice, a lot of people will fly (or take a train) for longer trips and so never hit the limits.
    - steveoscaro 3y ago
      The free standard autopilot on teslas makes highway driving much less taxing. I also have an ICE car, but will always take the Tesla on long road trips. Charging stops make the trip take maybe 10% longer, but that’s fine with me.
- ryandrake 3y ago
danans 3y ago
> This gives Tesla a massive revenue stream and scale to grow that network even bigger. Tesla's supercharger network is a loss leader whose purpose is to sell their cars [1], whose margins are also under pressure. There's no significant barrier to entry for EV supercharging other than perhaps having a profitable business to pair it with. The NACS connector and the exclusivity of its charging stations was a moat, one that Tesla traded for tax credits. It's mostly a real estate game. Shell is already adding EV chargers at key stations. Others will follow. 1. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/ev-charging/major-automakers-take-on-tesla-with-us-wide-ev-charging-network#:~:text=Even%20Tesla's%20Supercharger%20network%20is,near%20future%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20added https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/ev-charging/major-autom....
phkahler 3y ago
Nah. The real win here is for the public. The "standard" charging plug and cables weigh a LOT, so much that my elderly mother probably couldn't use one. The "standard" also mandates the use of PowerLine Communication chips even though the signal is not over the high power conductor. We are all better off just biting the bullet now and changing everything over to the Tesla plug.
- aik 3y ago
  Agreed. Thank you Tesla for helping bring about a better standard here!
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Better maintained than the horror show that is Electrify America as well
    - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
      I've posted about this before, but the reason EA is such a horror show is due to their history. EA was created basically as government-mandated punishment against Volkswagen for dieselgate. So it's not that surprising that they didn't feel incentivized to deliver a great product. Compare that to the Supercharger network, where providing a great experience is a huge selling point for Teslas. I might despise Musk, and I'm not a fan of Tesla lately, but you do really have to hand it to them: they were prescient and put in all the hard work of building out the best fast charging network, so good for them for reaping the benefits.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        > EA was created basically as government-mandated punishment against Volkswagen I didn't know that. Do you have some documentation about that. Would be fun reading material for the holidays > I might despise Musk, and I'm not a fan of Tesla lately, but you do really have to hand it to them: they were prescient and put in all the hard work of building out the best fast charging network, so good for them for reaping the benefits. Same boat club.
paul7986 3y ago
How long does it take to charge if my EV battery is at about zero with a supercharger? The same time it takes to pump gas?
- voisin 3y ago
  No. Much longer. And it depends massively on battery size too since they vary quite a bit more than gas tank sizes. https://insideevs.com/reviews/516438/tesla-supercharger-comparison-review/ https://insideevs.com/reviews/516438/tesla-supercharger-comp...
  - enragedcacti 3y ago
    Battery size only really matters if you are maxing out the charger since the amount of power the battery can take scales with kwhs. To be fair being charger limited is pretty common currently, but in ideal conditions a larger battery will be able to charge more miles/minute than a smaller one.
- njovin 3y ago
  Depends on the EV. A few years back I did a ~400 mile road trip in a Model Y. We had to make one top-up charging stop which took about 15 minutes. We walked to a spot and got a snack while we waited. A similarly-sized ICE vehicle could have possibly done the trip without a stop, or required a quick 5-minute top-up depending on conditions. I've done lots of long road trips in ICE vehicles and we usually stop to walk around and stretch for about the same amount of time and with the same frequency as charge stops call for. If you're trying to shave every minute off of a trip you'd come out behind, but IMO you're a glutton for punishment if you're trying to race through a 1000+ mile road trip without stopping for more than 5 minutes at a time.
  - paul7986 3y ago
    I travel a lot in my SUV in remote areas like between Reno and Vegas. As a gas driver I like the fact there's a gas station in remote areas and it takes me three minutes to fill my tank and go. When do we think as interested EV driver will my driving experience match my gas car diving experience and needs? Are we there yet?
sib 3y ago
Not sure how much margin that Tesla will be making on the charging. I don't think the financial details of these deals have been disclosed. Adding lots of revenue but with no margin doesn't really add value to Tesla. (Of course, to the extent they get funding from the government or other manufacturers to offset the capex required for building out more stations and chargers, that's great for Tesla & anyone.)
- shiftpgdn 3y ago
  In states where they are registered as an energy provider? A lot. A 10-80% charge will net Tesla $20. Comparatively a gas station that refills a midsize car with a 20 gallon tank will only net $6.
  - conjecTech 3y ago
    And where is that?
  - akouri 3y ago
    I think you mean it will _gross_ Tesla $20. From my research, Tesla is (currently) not making much on energy delivered. That _will_ certainly change in the future though.
    - shiftpgdn 3y ago
      Using Texas as an example: 10-80% on a Model S/X is 70kwh. Rate billed to customers will vary from 30-50c/kwh at time of charge. Spot in Texas typically ranges from 5c to 15c/kwh. Assuming charge equipment is fully depreciated all they need to pay is maintenance and network cost, which is marginal across a bank of 20 chargers. 70kwh x 25c = $17.50.
      - sib 3y ago
        Using California as an example, they are charging $0.12 / kWh more for non-Teslas than for Teslas. I don't see any reason to assume that delta would be different in other locations. Since the Tesla-Supercharging business is running at break-even, you're looking at something like $8.40 for a non-Tesla adding 70kwh.
conjecTech 3y ago
People also made the argument that the exclusivity of the Tesla supercharger network was a positive for Tesla. It's hard for both to be true. I think the reality is that uncertainty about charging away from home pushed a lot of people towards Tesla who might otherwise have considered a different make/model. With that gone, a moat vanished. That being said, competition in the US EV market is still weak. Maybe the added charging revenue outweighs that for now, but long-term, it seems like it will undoubtedly be a negative.
- stetrain 3y ago
  I think the difference is that over time Tesla has streamlined mass production, installation, and reliable operation of their chargers. They are averaging 1.5 charging stations installed per day over the last year in North America. Each of those stations has at least 8 chargers, some of them have 24, 40, or more. They have moved to pre-fab construction where a row of 8 chargers are all installed in a concrete slab that can be dropped into a site and commissioned in a very short time period. Basically nobody else is keeping up with them at charger deployment in the US and that creates a market opportunity for Tesla and a need to make some return on all of that construction by increasing utilization rates.
  - conjecTech 3y ago
    The price of charging is already dominated by the marginal cost of electricity, in the same way the price of filling your gas tank is by the price of gas. That will only be more true as charging gets faster. So an advantage in fixed costs is unlikely to be much of a strategic benefit. If they can save 100k/stall, that's great. But that is only a few hundred million a year at that install rate.
    - josephcsible 3y ago
      > The price of charging is already dominated by the marginal cost of electricity No it isn't. Most level 3 chargers are 3x-4x the price of electricity.
justapassenger 3y ago
[dead]
robin_reala 3y ago
To be clear, this is only in the US. In the EU for example, Tesla were required to adopt the common standard instead, and Superchargers will already charge every EV on the market, as will every other charger. (No specific comment on the quality of each of the charging standards.)
TheAlchemist 3y ago
There is no such big story here. The estimates are somewhere around 10B $ of revenue (not profit !) per year by 2030, and that's an optimistic scenario. Base case scenarios are much worse. And even that hypothetical 10B$ is hardly a 'massive' revenue stream for a company projecting to sell 10 million cars by that time (I would put their chances of achieving that goal at 0.01%). As usual with Tesla - it's all about projections, hyperboles etc, while usually ignoring actual numbers (not a shot at you, just an observation). There is a fair point to be made though, that this is a big loss for Tesla, as their charging network was pretty much the sole remaining advantage over their competition.
- grecy 3y ago
  > by 2030 > a company projecting to sell 10 million cars by that time At their latest investment day they very clearly said their goal is 20 million cars a year by 2030.
  - TheAlchemist 3y ago
    Yeah, but that was on the investor day - a lot of stupid things was said on that day. Like, and I quote here, "demand for our existing vehicles in terms of the desire to own them might as well be infinite"... Yeah, infinite demand for sure ! That's certainly why they were cutting prices aggressively.
    - grecy 3y ago
      > Yeah, infinite demand for sure ! That's certainly why they were cutting prices aggressively. The Model Y is now the second best selling vehicle in the US, and the number one in the world. They're selling every single vehicle they can make, right on 2 million vehicles this year. So far, demand continues to exceed production.
      - TheAlchemist 3y ago
        Is that true ? As far as we know, the factories are not operating at full capacity and the inventory increased considerably lately. And this is despite the price cuts.

mupuff1234 3y ago

But it also takes away Tesla's biggest advantage, no? The charging network was a big reason to buy a tesla and now that's gone. So perhaps they will actually end up losing more revenue than gaining.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
adrianN 3y ago
I would expect that in the near future EVs become commodities based on a small handful of licensed platforms. Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms.
- mupuff1234 3y ago
  Maybe, but a charging network is not quite a trillion dollar business, not to mention that the charging network will also become a commodity (especially since the charging protocol is open)
- bluGill 3y ago
  I disagree. People like their car to look new/different, and volumes on cars are high enough that the advantages of a custom platform is worth the cost of designing it.
  - adrianN 3y ago
    The design of the car is only loosely related to the skateboard that contains the battery and the drivetrain.
    - tomatotomato37 3y ago
      Considering 90% of modern consumer automobiles use a monocoque frame the design means everything to the chassis
      - adrianN 3y ago
        All cars made by the Volkswagen group are based on like 20 platforms. For example the Audi A3 and the Skoda Yeti are the same platform. They look quite different.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      Skateboard makes even less sense for EVs than for ICEs. in an ICE you have a large engine and various axels that have to be in specific places. With an EV you have more room to move the motors around where they makes sense. While you need a lot of batteries, each cell is small, so you want to put things like seats in the car first and then add cells anywhere there is extra room.
      - sbininit 3y ago
        Yeah some cars (like the polestar) have really shallow rear-seat legroom, which was a total showstopper. They could have move some of those batteries to the trunk/frunk
        yurishimo 3y ago
        They could, but there is also a cost to separating the batteries. More cables, which means more resistance, which means inefficiency. Not to mention the extra design and manufacturing costs. In practice, I don't think any company is meaningfully splitting up their battery pack to take advantage of "better" packaging logistics elsewhere in the frame/body. I know in this example, they could still likely be loosely attached in the same plane, but with less density under the cabin, but I think my point holds.
- 0xffff2 3y ago
  Why would this be true for EVs when it's clearly not true for ICE vehicles?
- phkahler 3y ago
  >> Owning the charging network is a nice hedge against losing the battle to become one of the platforms. Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Building out a "platform" to sell commodity electrons is utterly stupid. Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat.
  - tw04 3y ago
    >Charging networks are IMHO not a viable long term business model. Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? > Nobody wants the stupid app, they want to charge at McDonalds along the highway while they grab something to eat. So you should put your chargers near convenient amenities... like a convenience store... like a gas station?
    - ffgjgf1 3y ago
      > Sort of like gas stations weren't a viable long-term business model? If you only sell gas and nothing else you can only compete on price. Good luck with that.
    - wil421 3y ago
      Tesla isn’t building C-Stores that sell Gas or Electrons. The superchargers I’ve seen are in some random parking lot without a restroom or convenience store selling stuff.
      - bluGill 3y ago
        Some of them, but I've also seen Tesla at various truck stops. In rural areas building at a convenience store make sense: they already have restrooms, some form of restaurant and various other things to buy on site - everything a traveler needs for a quick break to fill the car before getting back on the road. In cities I think we will see less chargers as most people just go home to charge. However in poor areas they will be at places like grocery stores so you those who don't have at-home charging can charge and shop.
    - 3y ago
bluGill 3y ago
If Tesla hasn't played nice they would have lost too as everyone else rolled out the CCS standard cars networks would have responded and most chargers wouldn't support your Tesla.
toddmorey 3y ago
I wonder how profitable operating the charging network is. I've always thought they probably operate the locations at break even at best, but I honestly don't know. I do think any Tesla owner will tell you the charging infra is always scales behind demand and there are often delays waiting for an available spot. Hopefully a universal standard means more operators will participate. I just hope the payment experience can remain seamless.
yardie 3y ago
I feel the bigger goal is the viability of the network effect (clustering) of electric cars. When Tesla was the only electric car company most buyers thought it was neat but didn't really consider it. A lot of buyers want their next vehicle to be EV but have range anxiety. While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. More competition drives more churn which creates more transactions.
- chrisjc 3y ago
  > While the Model 3/Y was top seller amongst EV buyers it's overall marketshare is still miniscule. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your statement, but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That includes ICE vehicles, not just EVs. If you exclude trucks, I think it has also recently become the best selling car in the US, overtaking the Rav4.
  - FireBeyond 3y ago
    > but the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. That doesn't directly correlate to marketshare. The MY is going to need many many quarters of being the best selling car to have marketshare equal to many other ICE models.
  - yardie 3y ago
    Tesla is intentionally obtuse about their numbers. But the Corolla still reigns supreme at +700k. They combine the total sales of 3+Y against the Corolla. https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tesla-model-y-the-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/ https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a44600661/is-tes...
SCM-Enthusiast 3y ago
is it really gone? Tesla will still have a OEM advantage here in the software and internals. Alot of the "Technology" here is the software that does thermal management and the like. Tesla's still charge faster on a supercharger than a ford f-150 would, and i imagine some future where buying a Tesla gets you "Credits" to use at the chargers. Tesla has much different goals than the other car manufacturers. Although energy sales are only around 5% of total revenue, Tesla expects that to change going forward.
- agloe_dreams 3y ago
  Tesla already charges more to charge a non-tesla.
malermeister 3y ago
Tesla was always going to lose the EV battle in the long run - if not to VW and co, then to BYD and co. This lets them pivot to something where they have a huge moat.
- bluGill 3y ago
  They have less a moat here. Anyone can buy a level 3 charger and install it. while the economics of that are not clear, they are becoming clearer as EVs catch on. Many gas stations are looking at if chargers make sense long term, and if it does they will also install chargers.
- hnburnsy 3y ago
  Seems like the auto market is plenty large enough for multiple winners.
- kcb 3y ago
  Will Tesla slowly reduce market share as the market grows? Yes, But I don't see a situation where Tesla doesn't have quite a while of sales growth and best in class EVs.
agloe_dreams 3y ago
Yes and no. Tesla already has the #1 selling car (Model Y) and makes up more than half of EVs sold in the US. Eventually other networks were going to catch up. Now the other half will pay them too but they own the network. Long term it was the right choice.
- mupuff1234 3y ago
  But like you said, other networks will eventually catch up so long term tesla won't control the network either.
  - agloe_dreams 3y ago
    I think this actually helps Tesla in that department in another way - By everyone switching to NACS the entire fleet of CCS is now an adapter away. People will just default to NACS chargers...that will by majority be Tesla. Then Tesla can reinvest in charging stations with this new money and flood the market. Tesla could wholly snuff the market out while the companies are busy retrofitting chargers with Tesla's own plug.
CapitalistCartr 3y ago
People buy Teslas because they like them. Although chargers are necessary, they aren't sufficient. Walmart has had 25 years to outcompete Amazon, and is still clueless. Phone makers have had 15 years to beat Apple, and the competition is still not as polished. (Personally, I don't prefer Teslas or iPhones.)
bwat49 3y ago
Fragmented infrastructure benefits no one. Imagine if you could only fill up your ICE vehicle at shell stations because of your vehicle's brand. Fragmentation of the charging infrastructure puts a hard limit on EV adoption, they will never replace ICE vehicles unless the infrastructure becomes as ubiquitous as gas stations.
- izacus 3y ago
  It benefits Tesla right now - because people bought Teslas due to their charging network. It'll stop being a big benefit and that's great for competition.
- ggreer 3y ago
  It's hard to make direct analogies because unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Fast DC chargers are mostly for road trips. And while it's a good thing that everyone has adopted the same charging standard, branding is just as important. Gas at gas stations is fungible. EV chargers are most certainly not. Right now Tesla's charging network is the only option that is fast and reliable.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    So long as the charger supports the same connector they all work - some might be a level2 charger that takes forever, but you plug it into any car. Gas stations can choose from 3-10 grades of gas (octane, ethanol content, road tax) to sell, and 2-6 grades of diesel (cetane, gel point, road tax) depending on what the distributor offers - no station sells them all (at least not that I'm aware of), and getting the wrong fuel can be fatal. Stations also can choose their own additive package which can make a difference. Note that in almost all cases there is only one distributor you can buy from. Electric is generally a legal monopoly, while gasoline the closest supplier generally has a pipeline and thus can offer much cheaper prices so while it is legal to buy elsewhere it isn't practical.
  - shkkmo 3y ago
    > unlike gas vehicles, EVs "refuel" at home. You wake up every day with a full tank of gas. Only for the subset of the population that owns a home with off street parking. People in denser neighborhoods, appartments buildings or who rent their property will be looking to top off while running errands or at work.
highwaylights 3y ago
Honestly I doubt it. Musk already said himself that the company hinges on getting to full self-driving eventually, so it wouldn’t be surprising if every other decision is ultimately in service of that however unlikely it now seems. Either way, I think it’s terrific business. Would you rather have a dependable advantage that helps you stay further ahead of competitors in one industry, or have slightly less of an advantage (when you’re already in the lead) and get to dominate a whole second industry too (gas stations, for which superchargers have no peers in the EV world).
- ethanbond 3y ago
  Every new manufacturer switching to the Tesla standard further incentivizes e.g. BP, Shell, etc. to offer charging though. I don't see why they'd dominate this space.
  - highwaylights 3y ago
    Im working on the assumption that they’d need Tesla’s consent to use their interface and protocols.
    - chrisjc 3y ago
      Nope. Tesla has opened up the standard, but there are a few caveats.
  - chrisjc 3y ago
    Exactly. But with a twist: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi... https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet...
chrisjc 3y ago
Not necessarily. Using the plug doesn't imply that you have to use Tesla's charging network, even while still using Tesla's charging hardware. Tesla is already working on deals to sell their super/ultra-fast chargers to others like EG Group and BP. Expect the number of those deals to grow. I would argue that this will benefit those with with Teslas. As Tesla scales up to meet the demand for their charging hardware, the cost should drop while availability increases. Moreover, as the number of independent networks that use Tesla's charging hardware grows, there will be additional pressure/leverage/lobbying on the government, electric companies, etc to provide the behind-the-scenes infrastructure that theses charging locations require. Tesla has on numerous occasions asserted that this is one of the most difficult parts of growing their charging network in places that have the greatest demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-petrol-station-group-eg-buy-tesla-charging-units-2023-11-13/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uk-pet... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-charging-network-with-100-million-order-of-tesla-ultra-fast-chargers-301968787.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bp-boosts-ev-chargi...
basiccalendar74 3y ago
by opening up supercharging network, Tesla becomes eligible for billions of federal money. that tips the scales towards open superchargers.

1970-01-01 3y ago

The actual gains are never discussed. It could be massive or much less than you expect.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://electrek.co/2023/08/25/tesla-supercharger-network-billion-business-wedbush/ https://electrek.co/2023/08/25/tesla-supercharger-network-bi... ("Tesla Supercharger network to become $10 to $20 billion a year business, says Wedbush") > With Tesla now having a fleet of millions of vehicles using the network and opening it up to EVs from other automakers, financial analysts are starting to see the Supercharger network has a massive business that is going to partly replace gas stations, and they want to value it. > Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who has been covering Tesla for a long time, came out with a new note to clients today in which he stated that he believes the Supercharger network will represent 3% to 6% of Tesla’s total revenue or $10 to $20 billion in revenue by 2030.
- 1970-01-01 3y ago
  Estimates aren't gains. Something in their financials report would be a much better and accurate representation of gains.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Valuations and future revenue expectations are based on forecasting, based on currently available information.
intrasight 3y ago
At least they are not charging a license fee for the connector.
- jmac01 3y ago
  Yet

Spivak 3y ago

> which will eventually be all cars God I hope that day is long long in the future given the current ecosystem surrounding this crap. The last thing I want to add to my car is the multi-variant USB-C, thunderbolt, lightning adapter bullshit with accounts and subscriptions. It's the very worst of tech bro culture applied to critical infrastructure. What if the car makers owned and/or could strike deals with specific gas stations is an idea that only sounds good in a shareholder's mind. Every day as car companies try to turn cars into toasters with subscription bread I'm happier with my ICE car / ebike setup. Gas used almost every day, 0. Range anxiety, 0. Using infrastructure that has been stable for longer than my parents have been alive, priceless.

justrealist 3y ago
I have a Tesla with no subscription and a single plug I use when I go out. Not sure what you are on about.
lostlogin 3y ago
You can plug in at home and use chargers very rarely. After a year or so, I’m yet to try use one. I guess this very much depends on your driving patterns.
- bluGill 3y ago
  Anyone who has an ICE car will probably still prefer that for long trips. Most people are multiple car families and so will have that choice today. Even if the EV was the choice, a lot of people will fly (or take a train) for longer trips and so never hit the limits.
  - steveoscaro 3y ago
    The free standard autopilot on teslas makes highway driving much less taxing. I also have an ICE car, but will always take the Tesla on long road trips. Charging stops make the trip take maybe 10% longer, but that’s fine with me.
ryandrake 3y ago

danans 3y ago

> This gives Tesla a massive revenue stream and scale to grow that network even bigger. Tesla's supercharger network is a loss leader whose purpose is to sell their cars [1], whose margins are also under pressure. There's no significant barrier to entry for EV supercharging other than perhaps having a profitable business to pair it with. The NACS connector and the exclusivity of its charging stations was a moat, one that Tesla traded for tax credits. It's mostly a real estate game. Shell is already adding EV chargers at key stations. Others will follow. 1. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/ev-charging/major-automakers-take-on-tesla-with-us-wide-ev-charging-network#:~:text=Even%20Tesla's%20Supercharger%20network%20is,near%20future%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20added https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/ev-charging/major-autom....

phkahler 3y ago

Nah. The real win here is for the public. The "standard" charging plug and cables weigh a LOT, so much that my elderly mother probably couldn't use one. The "standard" also mandates the use of PowerLine Communication chips even though the signal is not over the high power conductor. We are all better off just biting the bullet now and changing everything over to the Tesla plug.

aik 3y ago
Agreed. Thank you Tesla for helping bring about a better standard here!
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Better maintained than the horror show that is Electrify America as well
  - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
    I've posted about this before, but the reason EA is such a horror show is due to their history. EA was created basically as government-mandated punishment against Volkswagen for dieselgate. So it's not that surprising that they didn't feel incentivized to deliver a great product. Compare that to the Supercharger network, where providing a great experience is a huge selling point for Teslas. I might despise Musk, and I'm not a fan of Tesla lately, but you do really have to hand it to them: they were prescient and put in all the hard work of building out the best fast charging network, so good for them for reaping the benefits.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      > EA was created basically as government-mandated punishment against Volkswagen I didn't know that. Do you have some documentation about that. Would be fun reading material for the holidays > I might despise Musk, and I'm not a fan of Tesla lately, but you do really have to hand it to them: they were prescient and put in all the hard work of building out the best fast charging network, so good for them for reaping the benefits. Same boat club.

paul7986 3y ago

How long does it take to charge if my EV battery is at about zero with a supercharger? The same time it takes to pump gas?

voisin 3y ago
No. Much longer. And it depends massively on battery size too since they vary quite a bit more than gas tank sizes. https://insideevs.com/reviews/516438/tesla-supercharger-comparison-review/ https://insideevs.com/reviews/516438/tesla-supercharger-comp...
- enragedcacti 3y ago
  Battery size only really matters if you are maxing out the charger since the amount of power the battery can take scales with kwhs. To be fair being charger limited is pretty common currently, but in ideal conditions a larger battery will be able to charge more miles/minute than a smaller one.
njovin 3y ago
Depends on the EV. A few years back I did a ~400 mile road trip in a Model Y. We had to make one top-up charging stop which took about 15 minutes. We walked to a spot and got a snack while we waited. A similarly-sized ICE vehicle could have possibly done the trip without a stop, or required a quick 5-minute top-up depending on conditions. I've done lots of long road trips in ICE vehicles and we usually stop to walk around and stretch for about the same amount of time and with the same frequency as charge stops call for. If you're trying to shave every minute off of a trip you'd come out behind, but IMO you're a glutton for punishment if you're trying to race through a 1000+ mile road trip without stopping for more than 5 minutes at a time.
- paul7986 3y ago
  I travel a lot in my SUV in remote areas like between Reno and Vegas. As a gas driver I like the fact there's a gas station in remote areas and it takes me three minutes to fill my tank and go. When do we think as interested EV driver will my driving experience match my gas car diving experience and needs? Are we there yet?

sib 3y ago

Not sure how much margin that Tesla will be making on the charging. I don't think the financial details of these deals have been disclosed. Adding lots of revenue but with no margin doesn't really add value to Tesla. (Of course, to the extent they get funding from the government or other manufacturers to offset the capex required for building out more stations and chargers, that's great for Tesla & anyone.)

shiftpgdn 3y ago
In states where they are registered as an energy provider? A lot. A 10-80% charge will net Tesla $20. Comparatively a gas station that refills a midsize car with a 20 gallon tank will only net $6.
- conjecTech 3y ago
  And where is that?
- akouri 3y ago
  I think you mean it will _gross_ Tesla $20. From my research, Tesla is (currently) not making much on energy delivered. That _will_ certainly change in the future though.
  - shiftpgdn 3y ago
    Using Texas as an example: 10-80% on a Model S/X is 70kwh. Rate billed to customers will vary from 30-50c/kwh at time of charge. Spot in Texas typically ranges from 5c to 15c/kwh. Assuming charge equipment is fully depreciated all they need to pay is maintenance and network cost, which is marginal across a bank of 20 chargers. 70kwh x 25c = $17.50.
    - sib 3y ago
      Using California as an example, they are charging $0.12 / kWh more for non-Teslas than for Teslas. I don't see any reason to assume that delta would be different in other locations. Since the Tesla-Supercharging business is running at break-even, you're looking at something like $8.40 for a non-Tesla adding 70kwh.

conjecTech 3y ago

People also made the argument that the exclusivity of the Tesla supercharger network was a positive for Tesla. It's hard for both to be true. I think the reality is that uncertainty about charging away from home pushed a lot of people towards Tesla who might otherwise have considered a different make/model. With that gone, a moat vanished. That being said, competition in the US EV market is still weak. Maybe the added charging revenue outweighs that for now, but long-term, it seems like it will undoubtedly be a negative.

stetrain 3y ago
I think the difference is that over time Tesla has streamlined mass production, installation, and reliable operation of their chargers. They are averaging 1.5 charging stations installed per day over the last year in North America. Each of those stations has at least 8 chargers, some of them have 24, 40, or more. They have moved to pre-fab construction where a row of 8 chargers are all installed in a concrete slab that can be dropped into a site and commissioned in a very short time period. Basically nobody else is keeping up with them at charger deployment in the US and that creates a market opportunity for Tesla and a need to make some return on all of that construction by increasing utilization rates.
- conjecTech 3y ago
  The price of charging is already dominated by the marginal cost of electricity, in the same way the price of filling your gas tank is by the price of gas. That will only be more true as charging gets faster. So an advantage in fixed costs is unlikely to be much of a strategic benefit. If they can save 100k/stall, that's great. But that is only a few hundred million a year at that install rate.
  - josephcsible 3y ago
    > The price of charging is already dominated by the marginal cost of electricity No it isn't. Most level 3 chargers are 3x-4x the price of electricity.

justapassenger 3y ago

[dead]

robin_reala 3y ago

To be clear, this is only in the US. In the EU for example, Tesla were required to adopt the common standard instead, and Superchargers will already charge every EV on the market, as will every other charger. (No specific comment on the quality of each of the charging standards.)

TheAlchemist 3y ago

There is no such big story here. The estimates are somewhere around 10B $ of revenue (not profit !) per year by 2030, and that's an optimistic scenario. Base case scenarios are much worse. And even that hypothetical 10B$ is hardly a 'massive' revenue stream for a company projecting to sell 10 million cars by that time (I would put their chances of achieving that goal at 0.01%). As usual with Tesla - it's all about projections, hyperboles etc, while usually ignoring actual numbers (not a shot at you, just an observation). There is a fair point to be made though, that this is a big loss for Tesla, as their charging network was pretty much the sole remaining advantage over their competition.

grecy 3y ago
> by 2030 > a company projecting to sell 10 million cars by that time At their latest investment day they very clearly said their goal is 20 million cars a year by 2030.
- TheAlchemist 3y ago
  Yeah, but that was on the investor day - a lot of stupid things was said on that day. Like, and I quote here, "demand for our existing vehicles in terms of the desire to own them might as well be infinite"... Yeah, infinite demand for sure ! That's certainly why they were cutting prices aggressively.
  - grecy 3y ago
    > Yeah, infinite demand for sure ! That's certainly why they were cutting prices aggressively. The Model Y is now the second best selling vehicle in the US, and the number one in the world. They're selling every single vehicle they can make, right on 2 million vehicles this year. So far, demand continues to exceed production.
    - TheAlchemist 3y ago
      Is that true ? As far as we know, the factories are not operating at full capacity and the inventory increased considerably lately. And this is despite the price cuts.