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The article doesn't mention that new building construction has almost halted in many European markets. I would assume that to play a much larger role than the r

The article doesn't mention that new building construction has almost halted in many European markets. I would assume that to play a much larger role than the reasons presented in the article.

bhouston 3y ago
Makes sense. In our new neighborhood in North America every single house got a heat pump by default. If housing starts drop that would significant affect sales.
- taylodl 3y ago
  That's because they're not running gas lines in a lot of new neighborhoods. If you don't have a gas line then the only sane alternative is to get a heat pump.
  - bhouston 3y ago
    This is Canada so we actually have both a heat pump as well as a secondary natural gas furnace for when the heat pump isn't sufficient. We get temperatures that go below -30C in the winter, which is beyond all heat pump's operating range.
    - taylodl 3y ago
      That's interesting. Here in the States they use heat pumps in a similar fashion, except it's backed by heating coils (electric furnace). As you say, the heat pump is much more efficient - until it isn't. Then the system switches over to heating coils. Where we have natural gas available we tend to just install a gas furnace and leave it at that.
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        It depends. In my 2016 build, my heat/cooling is heat pump, my hot water is gas (so is my stove). But I’m in Seattle where heat pumps don’t need a backup, and electricity is fairly cheap. A gas furnace would seem like a waste even though we have a gas line, although we do have a gas fireplace that we use for heat more often than the heat pump (which we only use when it is really cold).
jeroenhd 3y ago
It also doesn't help that, at least here, prices are higher and delays are longer because of high demand and low supply, especially on the side of the craftspeople who install heatpumps. That, combined with an overloaded power grid, isn't helping adoption much. You can't "just" install a heatpump like you install a TV, these figures are more complex than just "people aren't buying them". The apparent data source (https://www.ehpa.org/news-and-resources/press-releases/heat-pump-sales-falling-risking-e7-billion-in-investments/ https://www.ehpa.org/news-and-resources/press-releases/heat-...) seems to indicate that sales are dropping especially in Finland and Denmark. Which is interesting, because Finland seems to be market leader in this stuff: https://yle.fi/a/74-20049437 https://yle.fi/a/74-20049437 What this graph also doesn't show, is the huge spike in sales that 2022, the year have been taken as a basis, was compared to previous years: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-heat-pumps-became-a-nordic-success-story/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-heat-pumps-became... Of course the heat pump industry, which is the source of the data indicating a collapse, would prefer to maintain the huge growth the invasion into Ukraine and the subsequent changes in fossil fuel prices have brought to the sector. However, I suspect sales may fall back to pre-war levels, which is still a sizeable industry, and that the recent boom was an abnormality rather than an indicator of consumer interest.
- distances 3y ago
  > Which is interesting, because Finland seems to be market leader in this stuff Finland is especially affected by the construction downturn due to inflation and interest rates. The heating choice is usually still a heat pump. > 3078 building permits were granted for dwellings in July-September 2023, which was 53% less than a year earlier. https://www.stat.fi/julkaisu/cl84ds3gkv1rw0ew57o9v4r70 https://www.stat.fi/julkaisu/cl84ds3gkv1rw0ew57o9v4r70

The article doesn't mention that new building construction has almost halted in many European markets. I would assume that to play a much larger role than the reasons presented in the article.

bhouston 3y ago

Makes sense. In our new neighborhood in North America every single house got a heat pump by default. If housing starts drop that would significant affect sales.

taylodl 3y ago
That's because they're not running gas lines in a lot of new neighborhoods. If you don't have a gas line then the only sane alternative is to get a heat pump.
- bhouston 3y ago
  This is Canada so we actually have both a heat pump as well as a secondary natural gas furnace for when the heat pump isn't sufficient. We get temperatures that go below -30C in the winter, which is beyond all heat pump's operating range.
  - taylodl 3y ago
    That's interesting. Here in the States they use heat pumps in a similar fashion, except it's backed by heating coils (electric furnace). As you say, the heat pump is much more efficient - until it isn't. Then the system switches over to heating coils. Where we have natural gas available we tend to just install a gas furnace and leave it at that.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      It depends. In my 2016 build, my heat/cooling is heat pump, my hot water is gas (so is my stove). But I’m in Seattle where heat pumps don’t need a backup, and electricity is fairly cheap. A gas furnace would seem like a waste even though we have a gas line, although we do have a gas fireplace that we use for heat more often than the heat pump (which we only use when it is really cold).

jeroenhd 3y ago

It also doesn't help that, at least here, prices are higher and delays are longer because of high demand and low supply, especially on the side of the craftspeople who install heatpumps. That, combined with an overloaded power grid, isn't helping adoption much. You can't "just" install a heatpump like you install a TV, these figures are more complex than just "people aren't buying them". The apparent data source (https://www.ehpa.org/news-and-resources/press-releases/heat-pump-sales-falling-risking-e7-billion-in-investments/ https://www.ehpa.org/news-and-resources/press-releases/heat-...) seems to indicate that sales are dropping especially in Finland and Denmark. Which is interesting, because Finland seems to be market leader in this stuff: https://yle.fi/a/74-20049437 https://yle.fi/a/74-20049437 What this graph also doesn't show, is the huge spike in sales that 2022, the year have been taken as a basis, was compared to previous years: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-heat-pumps-became-a-nordic-success-story/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-heat-pumps-became... Of course the heat pump industry, which is the source of the data indicating a collapse, would prefer to maintain the huge growth the invasion into Ukraine and the subsequent changes in fossil fuel prices have brought to the sector. However, I suspect sales may fall back to pre-war levels, which is still a sizeable industry, and that the recent boom was an abnormality rather than an indicator of consumer interest.

distances 3y ago
> Which is interesting, because Finland seems to be market leader in this stuff Finland is especially affected by the construction downturn due to inflation and interest rates. The heating choice is usually still a heat pump. > 3078 building permits were granted for dwellings in July-September 2023, which was 53% less than a year earlier. https://www.stat.fi/julkaisu/cl84ds3gkv1rw0ew57o9v4r70 https://www.stat.fi/julkaisu/cl84ds3gkv1rw0ew57o9v4r70