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You are making a prediction: there will be an outcome that is not worth acting now to prevent.

orbital-decay 3y ago
Don't make me play the tiresome fallacy pointing game... I'm not making any definite predictions. It might or might not come. What I'm doing is expressing the doubt in anyone's ability to see through higher order effects, and especially in the goodwill of these people. OpenAI's charter [1], for example, is so insanely naive and idealistic, and at the same time doesn't seem to be just an empty marketing piece (they expressed the same ideas for many years). Whoever wrote this thing is clearly either has absolutely no clue on how the society functions, or is trying to hide malicious intentions behind the bullshit. In either case, I have a really hard time believing that someone who wrote this can make useful predictions. [1] https://openai.com/charter https://openai.com/charter
- ethanbond 3y ago
  I’m not making a definite prediction and many “doomers” aren’t either. And if your position is “idk what will happen, might be good, might be bad,” then there’s not much I can disagree with you on. I disagree with people who dismiss the entire project of AI alignment as unnecessary, despite the difficulties we have with human alignment as a person gains power who has the advantage of decades of socialization and somewhat reliable underlying biology.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
wand3r 3y ago
Im not parent. I have not yet come to a conclusion on risk but it is hard to imagine what can really be done about AI proliferation that isn't draconian and problematic for society. IF AI was 100% going to be catastrophic and everyone was in agreement, maybe it could be done. However, if Covid was any indication society is just not capable of cooperation. Do you believe AI is a species level threat? What would you suggest we (gov't/society/etc) do about it?
- ethanbond 3y ago
  No clue what to do about it, but I prefer the "figure out what's true, then what to do about it" approach to mitigate motivated reasoning.
nradov 3y ago
Some people have predicted that we could be invaded by hostile aliens. Is it not worth acting now to prevent? Surely we should build a giant space laser just in case. Can't be too safe!

Don't make me play the tiresome fallacy pointing game... I'm not making any definite predictions. It might or might not come. What I'm doing is expressing the doubt in anyone's ability to see through higher order effects, and especially in the goodwill of these people. OpenAI's charter [1], for example, is so insanely naive and idealistic, and at the same time doesn't seem to be just an empty marketing piece (they expressed the same ideas for many years). Whoever wrote this thing is clearly either has absolutely no clue on how the society functions, or is trying to hide malicious intentions behind the bullshit. In either case, I have a really hard time believing that someone who wrote this can make useful predictions. [1] https://openai.com/charter https://openai.com/charter

ethanbond 3y ago
I’m not making a definite prediction and many “doomers” aren’t either. And if your position is “idk what will happen, might be good, might be bad,” then there’s not much I can disagree with you on. I disagree with people who dismiss the entire project of AI alignment as unnecessary, despite the difficulties we have with human alignment as a person gains power who has the advantage of decades of socialization and somewhat reliable underlying biology.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

wand3r 3y ago

Im not parent. I have not yet come to a conclusion on risk but it is hard to imagine what can really be done about AI proliferation that isn't draconian and problematic for society. IF AI was 100% going to be catastrophic and everyone was in agreement, maybe it could be done. However, if Covid was any indication society is just not capable of cooperation. Do you believe AI is a species level threat? What would you suggest we (gov't/society/etc) do about it?

ethanbond 3y ago
No clue what to do about it, but I prefer the "figure out what's true, then what to do about it" approach to mitigate motivated reasoning.

nradov 3y ago

Some people have predicted that we could be invaded by hostile aliens. Is it not worth acting now to prevent? Surely we should build a giant space laser just in case. Can't be too safe!