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There are broadly 3 ways this can end: - The Houthi rebels back down. - The West backs down and accepts a minor rebel group disrupting global shipping . - Th
by WJW 3y ago
There are broadly 3 ways this can end:
- The Houthi rebels back down.
- The West backs down and accepts a minor rebel group disrupting global shipping .
- The Houthis get their shit kicked in.
There is technically a fourth option where the West tries but fails to enact option 3 I guess, but I doubt it. Houthi air defenses are limited to whatever old soviet SAMs they can scrounge together.
To be honest, I don't see the second option happening either. So we have options 1 and 3 left. I hope it's option 1, as there is enough war already in the world.
- Izikiel43 3y agoFor 1, they aren’t going to back down, 2 would set precedent and that’s a big no no, you don’t negotiate with terrorists. So that leaves us with option 3, a big delivery of freedom.
- ceejayoz 3y agoWe negotiate with terrorists all the damned time.
- Izikiel43 3y agoNot on the kind of things that threaten the mighty us economy, you don’t mess with the US dollar unless you are the fed. It’s cheaper and more effective long term to give them freedom than negotiating, next time they want something they just need to attack the strait again and that’s a bad long term policy to allow.
- feedforward 3y agoAnother option is Israel follows the overwhelming vote by the UN for a ceasefire.
- 8b16380d 3y ago[flagged]
- WJW 3y agoI think Israel should do that, yes. But I also think that the Houthi wouldn't stop shooting at western ships even if Israel fed and housed every Gazan in an actual palace. Their flag has some hints as to the goals of the movement, after all.
- keybored 3y ago[flagged]
- Jensson 3y agoIsrael isn't an apartheid state, that ended 1966, so today 20% of their population are Arabs/Palestinians and they are allowed to vote.
- keybored 3y agoThis isn’t a fringe statement. Amnesty International agrees (at least the 2022 report—a fair time after 1966). Apartheid is the systematic domination of one racial group over another. How is that not in effect in Israel and the occupied territories? How is, say, the freedom of movement for Palestinians considering all the checkpoints that they have to go through? Can anyone argue that Palestinians are not second-class citizens in Israel and the occupied territories?
- 9dev 3y agoThis sort of populist bullshit is part of the problem we’re dealing with.
- qaq 3y agoDo you for real suggesting the Iran is carrying this out because they care for people of Gaza?
- Izikiel43 3y agoThe UN is a decoration, Israel has the historic chance of getting rid of hamas and setting precedent that if you fck around, you will find out, no way they are stopping.
- ceejayoz 3y agoThere is zero chance of getting rid of Hamas in this fashion. It, or a worse successor, will come out of this just fine, no matter how many individual members wind up as meat paste.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> a worse successor, will come out One hopes it will learn that Hamas’ tactics don’t work. They backfire. And they lose one global sympathy.
- ceejayoz 3y agoHamas’s tactics worked great here. They’ve created 20k new martyrs to recruit off. Prompting a big reaction was the goal, and they got it.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> Prompting a big reaction was the goal, and they got it Hamas lost control of Daef and Islamic Jihad. They launched an attack that was shockingly brutal, took hostages and then lost them, and are likely to lose physical control over Gaza for some time. There might have been an inkling of a strategy, but nobody on the ground was calling shots.
- ceejayoz 3y agoPrecisely the way they like it. Control means governing, which means you're blamed when things go wrong. Hamas has zero interest in actually having to run a functional government with elections and water quality monitoring and street maintenance. See also: Republican promises to repeal Obamacare. > They launched an attack that was shockingly brutal... The response to that attack has killed ~15x as many so far, with plenty of civilians in that mix. Even the US is starting to message "hold up, that's a bit much" now.
- ericfrazier 3y agoWhat would that achieve to protect Israel?
- mytailorisrich 3y agoCurrently they only disrupt shipping to Israel, or linked to Israel, as far as I understand. Indiscriminate targeting/disruption would raise eyebrows in Beijing and I am sure Iran does not want that.
- WJW 3y agoSorry but have you read the news lately? Because the attacks have been rather indiscriminate, EVERY big shipping company is now refusing to sail their ships through the Red sea and by extension cannot use the Suez canal anymore. Rather, they have to take the long way around Africa now. This adds a lot of extra cost and shipping delay.
- jakupovic 3y agoYou should read the proclamation ...
- JumpCrisscross 3y agoActions over words. The Houthis are indiscriminately targeting trade. If they had the discipline to only hit Israeli ships, this would be a different situation.
- mytailorisrich 3y agoThe point remains that at some point that will impact China because that's where most of the containers come from. Then what? Again China is really the last country Iran should want to piss off. Or, that'll benefit Chinese shipping companies as, again, I highly doubt that they'll be targeted. The US are probably the least impacted, if at all.
- maxglute 3y agoCOSCO hasn't released news they'll stop red sea shipping. TBH if Houthis only targetted western shipping it would be slight competitive advantage to PRC. The potential blowback is if US pressures Iran and threatens 1m barrels of of Iranian oil to PRC.
- qaq 3y agoThere is a 4th way people funding and directing them get a to learn a lesson.
- rjzzleep 3y agoI feel like your second point should maybe address the Houthi's demands? Which to be precise were an end to the blockade of Gaza. Regardless of which way you lean in this story, I still find it disingenuous to hide what the demands of parties of conflicts are - any conflict to be precise. Whether it is intentional or not does not matter in my opinion.
- Veraticus 3y agoThey also have demanded death to Israel and Jews though. They’re a cat’s paw for Iran, who don’t really care about Gazans except as they can be used to delegitimize and destroy Israel.
- rjzzleep 3y agoDon't make this about Iran. Iran is doing nothing to deligitimize Israel right now. The Knesset is doing that all on its own. But death to the Jews? Where is the source of that? But even if they did, they are no threat to Israel. They're no threat to Jews around the world. Israel is vastly more powerful than any country in the region, except maybe Iran. There is really no threat to Israels existence at this point. It's also the only nuclear power in the region. Mearscheimer correctly called this "threat inflation"[1] But calling for the destruction of a state isn't that uncommon. I fail to see what's so unique about such a statement. Also worth remember that the west itself constantly engages in that rhetoric. 0. Various countries frequently call for the destruction of their neighbours 1. the Israeli's and the Americans constantly call for the destruction of Iran(hardly the only nation btw) 2. the US and Europeans have conferences about the break up of Russia(i.e. the destruction of Russia) 3.Yugoslavia, and several other nations having actually been destroyed in the last couple of decades [1] https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1736160553322553404 https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1736160553322553404
- ceejayoz 3y ago> But death to the Jews? Where is the source of that? This is hardly controversial. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slogan_of_the_Houthi_movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slogan_of_the_Houthi_movement "The slogan of the Houthi movement (officially called 'Ansar Allah'), a Shia Islamist political and military organization in Yemen, reads 'God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam'".
- Aeolun 3y agoFeel like they’re going to have to make up their minds on Nr 1 soon.
- injeolmi_love 3y agoThe problem with 3 is global radicalization. Attempts to suppress populations can only work with the ability to convince the population to take your side; in the case of large scale bombing campaigns, the result is more radicalization and an increase in attacks elsewhere.
- sokoloff 3y agoIt’s not obvious to me that giving in to present-time radicals reduces long-run/future radicalization. I don’t claim that humans are perfectly rational in all activities, but appeasement hasn’t generally worked in the past.
- rightbyte 3y agoThat is not necessary the dilemma. The dilemma could also be whether to let "present time radicals" tease Washington war mongerers into doing something that is in the long term interest of the radicals.
- dwiel 3y agoIn some situations the US has gone to war with countries who not long after are close allies. Germany comes to mind, but there are others. In other cases the situation you describe is more accurate. What are the primary factors that influence one outcome or another?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- injeolmi_love 3y agoThe allied powers exercised total media control in Germany and Japan. This strategy is no longer possible due to social media.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- hn_throwaway_99 3y agoExactly. This issue isn't that dissimilar from Somali pirates attacking ships in the same region: at first it was "mildly annoying" to the West at large, but ransoms were generally paid. Then it escalated to the point where the West basically said enough, and brought sufficient firepower to deter the pirates.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- 29athrowaway 3y ago4) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Gurion_Canal_Project https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Gurion_Canal_Project
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> West backs down and accepts a minor rebel group disrupting global shipping There is zero chance capitulating works without someone reining the Houthis in. The Houthis don’t have a unified power structure. There is nobody to accept that a deal has been signed. The only group that can credibly claim to control them is Tehran; a deal would need to be made with them. And they haven’t offered terms.
- gpm 3y agoI interpreted "backs down" as "stops using the suez canal" not "gives in to their demands"... for precisely the reason that giving in to demands seems unlikely to stop them (even if it might create a brief pause).
- anonymouse008 3y agoYou shouldn't be downvoted for this. The dollar reserve status is only guaranteed as far as 'the commerce' is protected. Your understanding and comment show the true power dynamics.
- jakupovic 3y ago#4 hungry people get fed ...
- pknerd 3y agoThere is another option, end the occupation of Palestinians and pressure Israel to have a Palestinian state.