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Well the Houthis/Iran doesn't have the ability to block the way to the Suez, and the decision by Maersk shows they don't need to. With just a few missile attac

Well the Houthis/Iran doesn't have the ability to block the way to the Suez, and the decision by Maersk shows they don't need to. With just a few missile attacks, most of them failed, the Houthis have disrupted global trade. Incredibly effective. But yes, it's probably gonna lead to more ships being sent to defend against the attacks. I wonder why we don't see Egypt's and Saudi Arabia's navy sending ships to the coast of Yemen.

speeder 3y ago
Saudi Arabia seemly is trying to have peace with Yemen and there are rumors that US is not bombing Yemen because of this too. Seemly is better to ignore Yemen despite their attacks than risk Yemen bombing Saudi oil operations again.
CapricornNoble 3y ago
> With just a few missile attacks, most of them failed, the Houthis have disrupted global trade. The Houthis have repeatedly stated they are only targeting ships heading to/from Israeli ports. Everyone else SHOULD be able to proceed on their merry way, but I understand the rationale of risk avoidance by simply avoiding the whole region. > I wonder why we don't see Egypt's and Saudi Arabia's navy sending ships to the coast of Yemen. Hmmmm, Saudi Arabia is in an awkward position. They've been at war with the Houthis partly because they are Iranian proxies. But now they are starting to repair relations with Iran. Also the Saudis need to maintain credibility with the Islamic world as a whole, and it would be a very bad look if they were interdicting Yemeni efforts to support the struggle for Palestinian liberation. Egypt might be similarly passive, but more for domestic reasons. Western-leaning government prefers relatively normal relations with Israel (and booming Suez Canal traffic), but likely large portions of their population doesn't. "Do nothing" is an easy middle ground.
- dehrmann 3y ago
  > The Houthis have repeatedly stated they are only targeting ships heading to/from Israeli ports. Everyone else SHOULD be able to proceed on their merry way. Would you go on a cruise through the Suez? Mistakes happen.
  - CapricornNoble 3y ago
    No but I wouldn't have gone on a cruise through the Suez (and presumably down the length of the Red Sea) for the past two decades anyway: Somali piracy has long been a scourge in the region.
    - Fatnino 3y ago
      Somali piracy has been cleaned up. The same navies that did that should do the same to the Yemenis
- hackerlight 3y ago
  > But now they are starting to repair relations with Iran. I wouldn't draw this conclusion just because they had a few meetings. The Saudis are facing the same dilemma as Egypt, where the leaders have to manage optics with non-committal signals. Once this war ends, the Saudis will be facing the same security reality as prior to the war, therefore the Saudis will have the same reasons for opposing Iran and seeking out alliance with the US. Nothing substantive will change in this calculation, assuming the war is contained in Gaza.
- citrin_ru 3y ago
  > The Houthis have repeatedly stated they are only targeting ships heading to/from Israeli ports. Then they expanded this to any ships with some connection to Israel but already attacked a ship headed to Italy which has no (publicly) known connection to Israel. IMHO attacks on unrelated ships will continue to happen because: 1. they have poor intelligence 2. why should they care about mistakes if they meet zero pushback.
samcheng 3y ago
The Houthis have cleverly tied their struggle to the Israel/Hamas conflict. So Egypt and Saudi Arabia have to worry about appearing pro-Israel if they intervene.
nradov 3y ago
Besides the political issues that others have mentioned, the Egyptian and Saudi navies have very limited inventories of surface ships with significant missile defense capabilities that go beyond just point defense. The Egyptians have about 17 and the Saudis about 13. Only a subset of those are available to deploy at any given time. Their SAMs and air search radars are generally relatively short range which means they can't provide very effective area air defense; instead they would have to escort convoys which adds some complexity. The quality of the crews and materiel condition of the ships is somewhat ... questionable.

speeder 3y ago

Saudi Arabia seemly is trying to have peace with Yemen and there are rumors that US is not bombing Yemen because of this too. Seemly is better to ignore Yemen despite their attacks than risk Yemen bombing Saudi oil operations again.

CapricornNoble 3y ago

> With just a few missile attacks, most of them failed, the Houthis have disrupted global trade. The Houthis have repeatedly stated they are only targeting ships heading to/from Israeli ports. Everyone else SHOULD be able to proceed on their merry way, but I understand the rationale of risk avoidance by simply avoiding the whole region. > I wonder why we don't see Egypt's and Saudi Arabia's navy sending ships to the coast of Yemen. Hmmmm, Saudi Arabia is in an awkward position. They've been at war with the Houthis partly because they are Iranian proxies. But now they are starting to repair relations with Iran. Also the Saudis need to maintain credibility with the Islamic world as a whole, and it would be a very bad look if they were interdicting Yemeni efforts to support the struggle for Palestinian liberation. Egypt might be similarly passive, but more for domestic reasons. Western-leaning government prefers relatively normal relations with Israel (and booming Suez Canal traffic), but likely large portions of their population doesn't. "Do nothing" is an easy middle ground.

dehrmann 3y ago
> The Houthis have repeatedly stated they are only targeting ships heading to/from Israeli ports. Everyone else SHOULD be able to proceed on their merry way. Would you go on a cruise through the Suez? Mistakes happen.
- CapricornNoble 3y ago
  No but I wouldn't have gone on a cruise through the Suez (and presumably down the length of the Red Sea) for the past two decades anyway: Somali piracy has long been a scourge in the region.
  - Fatnino 3y ago
    Somali piracy has been cleaned up. The same navies that did that should do the same to the Yemenis
hackerlight 3y ago
> But now they are starting to repair relations with Iran. I wouldn't draw this conclusion just because they had a few meetings. The Saudis are facing the same dilemma as Egypt, where the leaders have to manage optics with non-committal signals. Once this war ends, the Saudis will be facing the same security reality as prior to the war, therefore the Saudis will have the same reasons for opposing Iran and seeking out alliance with the US. Nothing substantive will change in this calculation, assuming the war is contained in Gaza.
citrin_ru 3y ago
> The Houthis have repeatedly stated they are only targeting ships heading to/from Israeli ports. Then they expanded this to any ships with some connection to Israel but already attacked a ship headed to Italy which has no (publicly) known connection to Israel. IMHO attacks on unrelated ships will continue to happen because: 1. they have poor intelligence 2. why should they care about mistakes if they meet zero pushback.

samcheng 3y ago

The Houthis have cleverly tied their struggle to the Israel/Hamas conflict. So Egypt and Saudi Arabia have to worry about appearing pro-Israel if they intervene.

nradov 3y ago

Besides the political issues that others have mentioned, the Egyptian and Saudi navies have very limited inventories of surface ships with significant missile defense capabilities that go beyond just point defense. The Egyptians have about 17 and the Saudis about 13. Only a subset of those are available to deploy at any given time. Their SAMs and air search radars are generally relatively short range which means they can't provide very effective area air defense; instead they would have to escort convoys which adds some complexity. The quality of the crews and materiel condition of the ships is somewhat ... questionable.