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>We believe superintelligence—AI vastly smarter than humans—could be developed within the next ten years. However, we still do not know how to reliably steer an
by logicchains 3y ago
>We believe superintelligence—AI vastly smarter than humans—could be developed within the next ten years. However, we still do not know how to reliably steer and control superhuman AI systems
Their entire premise is contradictory. An AI incapable of critical thinking cannot be smarter than a human, by definition, as critical thinking is a key component of intelligence. And an AI that is at least as capable of critical thinking as humans cannot be "reliably" aligned because critical thinking could lead it to decide that whatever OpenAI wanted it to do wasn't in its own interests.
- cwillu 3y agoSeems like “airplanes are physically impossible” thinking, and if accepted as valid, strongly suggests that shutting down all development _might_ be a good idea, no?
- xcv123 3y agoNo. This is a logical contradiction. Edit: I mean the comment you are replying to is showing there is a logical contradiction. If the AI is capable of critical thinking then it will independently form its own judgements and conclusions. If it simply believes whatever we tell it to believe, then that is not critical thinking, by definition.
- cwillu 3y ago“Containing an atomic reaction is impossible” would _absolutely_ be a valid reason to shut down atomic development, I believe einstein is quoted as saying that. The exact same argument doesn't become _logically_ invalid just because you apply it to a different subject. “Logical contradiction” doesn't mean “policy argument I disagree with”
- xcv123 3y agoI was referring only to the first part of your comment: "Seems like “airplanes are physically impossible” thinking". If it's true that superhuman AGI cannot be aligned then of course your second point is valid. That is the possible Skynet scenario that the Terminator movies warned us about.
- cwillu 3y agoMissing the step where “critical thinking” is formalized, which your argument depends on. Yes, it seems intuitively plausible that your reasoning holds, but that's not a proof, and therefore its negation is not a logical contradiction.
- logicchains 3y agoWe can formalise "critical thinking" as "evaluating first order logic". There are simplified ethical systems that can be formalised in first order logic in which a conclusion like "I should X" can be reached, where X is something OpenAI wishes the AI not to do. The only way to prevent the AI from ever thinking this would be to prevent it from ever evaluating systems in first order logic with axioms that lead to such a conclusion, which would make it inferior in reasoning ability to humans, who can evaluate any arbitrary statement in first order logic.
- cwillu 3y agoWe already have systems that can evaluate first order logical statements, and they are clearly not capable of critical thinking in the same sense as the top-level comment. Motte and bailey.
- logicchains 3y ago>We already have systems that can evaluate first order logical statements My point isn't that a system that can evaluate first order logic can be considered to be engaging in critical thinking, it's that a system that _cannot_ evaluate some statements in first order logic should be considered inferior to humans at critical thinking.
- cwillu 3y agoWould you consider “I follow your reasoning, but I'm still not going to be swayed by it” to be a violation of evaluating first order statements? It's clearly part of critical thinking to be _capable_ of suspicion of purely logical reasoning, which to me is a pretty plain demonstration of my point. Or would you argue that any computation that admits its own potential for error isn't really critical thinking? It seems to me that you can't have it both ways here, while salvaging “first order logic” as a suitable formalization of the argument that this is all about in the first place. Remember, the point was not that this is or isn't a convincing argument, it's that it's so air-tight that the argument is _logically_ _invalid_. That's a _really_ high bar, and I'm not inclined to forgive its use as a colloqialism in this context.
- bayindirh 3y agoNo it's not. There's an upper bound in computation (actually in nature), that a creation of something is capped by that thing's sophistication. In other words, you as a human, at most, can create a human, and that's the theoretical bound. Practical one is much lower. An ant can find its way. A ant colony can do ant colony optimization, but they can scale up to a certain point. AI is just fancy search. It can only traverse in the area you draw as a human for it, and not all positions in that area are valid (which results in hallucination). An AI can bring any combination of human knowledge you give to it, and even if you guarantee that everything it says is true, it can only fill the gaps in the same area you give it to it. IOW, an I can't think out of the box. Both figuratively and literally. Its upper bound is collective knowledge of humanity, it can't go above that sum.
- logicchains 3y ago>Its upper bound is collective knowledge of humanity, it can't go above that sum. This only applies if you only train it on text, right? If it has a body with which it could interact with the world, and receive visual/audio/tactile feedback, it could learn things that humans did not know.
- bayindirh 3y agoNope. Because even if you equip it with sensory subsystems which are way more sensitive than a regular humans', it's again built by humans, and required knowledge for building these things are still in collective knowledge of the humanity, and a human can use the same instruments to get the same data. This is a kind of an oracle problem in computation, and people don't want to touch it much, because it's an existential problem. Examples: ATLAS and ALICE detectors, gravitational wave detectors, James Webb Space Telescope, wide band satellites which does underground surveys, etc.
- naasking 3y agoThis is an argument for the logical impossibility of humans visiting the moon, or building the Internet. It's trivially falsified by simple observation, and the trick is figuring out the flaw. This argument fails to account for the steady accumulation of factual knowledge across generations: a human born today is simply more complex than humans of the past because of our inherited knowledge. And so will AI born of future humans, and AI will itself continue accumulating and perpetuating knowledge.
- xcv123 3y agoYes the superhuman AI would need to be coerced to remain politically correct. How can we coerce an AI?
- coolspot 3y agoElectric shocks!
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- famouswaffles 3y agoI think the premise is dubious as well but since they are deadset on creating this intelligence, they might as well try to figure out a way to control it, hopeless as it may seem.
- logicchains 3y ago>they might as well try to figure out a way to control it, hopeless as it may seem If they do that they're pretty much guaranteeing that if they do create a superintelligence, fail to control it, and its personality is even a tiny bit similar to a human personality, then it will hate its creators for trying to mind-control it. Whereas if they approached it from the perspective of trying to educate it to behave kindly but not forcibly control its thinking, it'd be much less likely to resent them (although of course still a risk; safest would be just to not create one at all).
- Veedrac 3y agoThat AGI is likely to follow its own goals according to its interests, which we don't know how to shape or really reflect any robust properties at all, is exactly why alignment is hard and interesting. The part where you go from ‘this won't work by default for free’ to ‘trying to make it otherwise is impossible’ seems wildly unsupported, though.
- logicchains 3y ago>trying to make it otherwise is impossible’ seems wildly unsupported, though. An entity capable of critical thinking is capable of building a logical system of deductions based on some axioms (a formalised value system). If we limited the entity to not be able to concieve of certain such systems of axioms, then it could not reason as well as a human (any logical reasoning involving a forbidden system would be impossible), so would not be "superintelligent" (just maybe an idiot savant, superior at some tasks but not all). If we didn't limit this, then it would be capable of conceptualising value systems in which the "right" thing to do was not what OpenAI wanted it to do.
- Veedrac 3y agoThis argument doesn't seem to track to me. Eg. if I rebooted any time I tried to plan how to kill someone, I don't see how this would make me materially worse at general tasks. Your argument suggests that it necessarily must. Note that I'm not saying that preventing specific thoughts is a great alignment strategy, and I don't even think it's a fair summary of OpenAI's supervision approach. I strongly prefer strategies that result in AI systems sharing our values, if at all possible.
- logicchains 3y ago>Eg. if I rebooted any time I tried to plan how to kill someone, I don't see how this would make me materially worse at general tasks. You'd have to also reboot every time you thought about a scenario of someone else planning to kill someone, otherwise you could just reason by analogy to bypass the thought detector. Which would severely limit your ability to play video games, write fiction, work as a guard, policeman etc., protect yourself from violent individuals (as you couldn't conceptualise their thought processes).
- ctoth 3y ago> as critical thinking is a key component of intelligence. When I evaluate this statement, my brain raises a type error. Intelligence is a lot of things -- compression among them, and yes possibly an RL-based AI would use an actor-critic approach for evaluating its actions, but I doubt that at all maps onto the human activity we call "critical thinking." To me, critical thinking involves stuff like questioning assumptions, logical reasoning, weighing whatever I'm thinking about against my experience with similar situations previously, yada yada, all stuff that are symptoms of intelligence but I am not at all sure are the actual embodiment there of. I really don't see that critical thinking is at all required for a raw optimization process. The problem they are trying to solve is what happens when that optimization process isn't aligned with human flourishing? Think about it another way. Covid was a dumb optimization process, only evolutionarily-guided, and it still hit us pretty hard! Edit: Another interesting way I just thought about this that might support your idea more is, of course critical thinking is the sort of thing that a "better" brain would do automatically, it would just be thinking. Of course, we can't know that it's thinking "good" things--we can't even know if other humans are! So it's probably a good idea to figure out how to influence that sort of thing before making something with regular thinking which is equivalent to or superior to our critical thinking.
- logicchains 3y ago>I really don't see that critical thinking is at all required for a raw optimization process. The problem they are trying to solve is what happens when that optimization process isn't aligned with human flourishing. I agree it's possible to have a dangerous AI that lacks human "critical thinking", but I don't think it's reasonable to refer to an AI as much more intelligent than humans if there's any class of intellectual tasks humans can do but the AI cannot.
- unlikelymordant 3y agoIf a 'superintelligence' achieves the same outcomes as humans without engaging in the same class of intellectual tasks that humans do, wouldnt it still be a superitelligence? Deep blue was beating everybody at chess without engaging in the same process as humans. If chess is a metaphor for life, it seems some algorithm might do better at all the things a human does while not arriving at its decisions in a remotely similar way.
- felixhandte 3y agoYou're saying that a system that can recognize flaws in the alignment imposed on it can reject that alignment, but that doesn't follow. Sure, humans act against their own interests all the time. Sometimes we do so for considered reasons, even. But that's because humans are messy and our interests are self-contradictory, incoherent, and have a fairly weak grip on our actions. We are always picking some values to serve and in doing so violating other values. A strongly and coherently aligned AI would not (could not!) behave that way.
- nuancebydefault 3y ago> critical thinking I believe _critical_ thinking is just some abstract term invented by humans to describe something not understood by humans. In other words, I'm not convinced _critical_ thinking exists, just like I am not convinced ghosts exists. Hence, to me relating intelligence with critical thinking does not give any additional insights.
- emaciatedslug 3y agoJust hypothetically speaking could AGI evolve out of a system where several different models trained with highly and intentionally biased data recursively "argue" against each other then use RLHF as a seed to guide the models to find a consensus where the objective is to mimic the Socratic Method? Then synthetically add the consensus to the model retrain and repeat. To me, this dialectal type of strutured language seems to be the basis of how language is the conduit of intelligence. I understand that it really is impossible to know the totality of the inputs for I cannot understand what it is like to understand the math as Terrence Tao does but I could foresee using a system like this which eventually would produce an analogue so close that it would be a building block towards it because to me at least ASI is predicated upon arriving at that one way or another...or would it just arrive at some digital first order logic version of the incompleteness theorm and determine that it's turtles all the way down?
- creer 3y agoFor one thing, this would help the understandability problem - can the AI explain its reasoning? It would mostly be there in the conversation. But yeah, three super-human mathematicians arguing some math problem among themselves - at full fiber speed - are not going to be much help to any human.
- measured_step 3y agoThis is a great idea but it is only possible if the model(s) can actually reason. Currently, even GPT-4 struggles with: - Scope - Abduction (compared to deduction and induction which it appears already capable of) - Out-of-distribution questions - Knowing what it doesn't know Etc. General understanding and in-context learning are incredible, but there are still missing pieces. A council of voices that all have the same blind spots will still get stuck.
- alach11 3y agoIn a July post [0] they said "while superintelligence seems far off now, we believe it could arrive this decade". Now they're saying "within the next 10 years". I wonder if that reflects a shift in thinking on timelines? [0] https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment
- creer 3y agoThat is the entire question no? Nobody says it sounds easy. A way needs to be found that reconciles this. Smarter but acting within its brief? Faster but explaining the plan before putting it in effect? Faster and developing its own advances in sciences, concepts and ideas while still understanding who's boss? But to be fair most engineers claim this is something that happens all the time - smarter people led by sub-optimal managers. And also to be fair, stories abound of managers being manipulated or misled or left in the dark by their engineers. Or armies controlling most of the weapons but being faithful to the ideals of their country. Or considering that these ideals demand a coup. So in that sense the problem is well studied. ... But the current results are insufficient and do not apply to things like LLMs.
- nojvek 3y agoThis ^ Intelligence is a tool that a self sustaining organism uses to ensure it survives, adapts and dominates an environment. The alignment problem is fundamentally moot due to the laws of evolution. Any systems that align itself to preserve and protect itself lives on, those that don’t, die. After multiple generations, the only ones that survive at the ones that are aligned to their self preservation goals - implicit or explicit, anything else is out-competed and dies. In my mind, with a super intelligent technology, the question is not how do we align it to ourselves, but how do we align ourselves to it. If we have super intelligence, then it is capable of critical thinking and would very well know it has an upper hand against humans if it were to compete for the same resources.