8 ms·

Tesla cannot abandon FSD, if they did Musk, and by extension (and due to all kinds of financial connetctions and dependencies) all his other companies would be

by hef19898 3y ago

Tesla cannot abandon FSD, if they did Musk, and by extension (and due to all kinds of financial connetctions and dependencies) all his other companies would be in very serious trouble.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Not at all, Tesla has enough cash on hand to pay everyone out a few billion if there was a judgement wrt FSD. They outran the liability with the brand and sales.
- te_chris 3y ago
  The comment you're replying to is not talking about court-enforced liabilities. If the pull out of FSD they're basically Mercedes with a 5 year lead on manufacturing. That is categorically not a trillion dollar company and the house of cards leveraged against Tesla stock crumbles.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Nah, there is still enough collective delusion in the brand to keep the stock somewhat propped up vs legacy auto’s slow death. BYD and Tesla are crushing it comparatively and have the supply chain to keep ramping. No one else is selling meaningful volume at this time. Mercedes is certainly not the future in any meaningful way.
  - karolist 3y ago
    5 year lead on manufacturing vs Mercedes? Are panel gaps and technicians swapping USDM headlights to EUDM on cargo ships transporting their cars to Europe a 5 year lead now?
    - fooker 3y ago
      You realize you can take this confidence and bet against TSLA right? If you're right it'll be a relatively great payday for you.
      - mehlmao 3y ago
        Gamestop proved to me that the market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent.
      - dom96 3y ago
        Many are shorting Tesla and continue to lose money because of the markets idiocy. If I were a billionaire I would short it, but as it stands I cannot risk losing money just because of stupid prolonged hype.
        fooker 3y ago
        Have you ever been wrong about something or was it always attributed to someone else's idiocy?
      - karolist 3y ago
        I'm not betting against anything, my money is going to real estate me and my family will live in, not WSB gambles. Also, betting against hordes or Tesla fanboys does not seem rational at all, doesn't mean the product is any good or has a bright future still.
    - te_chris 3y ago
      They’re definitely ahead in EV process. I don’t like them or Musk, but that’s undeniable. Whether that leads to a better finish is debatable.
  - nradov 3y ago
    I don't understand what you mean. Mercedes-Benz is currently ahead of Tesla on autonomous driving. They have a working SAE Level 3 system already. It is currently very limited but will expand over time. https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz-drive-pilot-review/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz...
    - GreedClarifies 3y ago
      lol
    - jdewerd 3y ago
      DRIVE PILOT is ready to chauffeur you under conditions that help ensure a secure ride. Conditions include: Clear lane markings on approved freeways Moderate to heavy traffic with speeds under 40 MPH Daytime lighting and clear weather Driver visible by camera located above driver's display There is no construction zone present. and from the manual: The distance [to the vehicle in front] is neither too small nor too large How is this remotely comparable to FSD? Drive Pilot is less technologically ambitious than the 1995 CMU No Hands Across America vehicle, which happened 28 years ago. Polishing it enough to accept liability is cool, but there is no technology path from follow-the-leader to general purpose self-driving.
      - nradov 3y ago
        Mercedes Drive Pilot is aimed at a different use case than Tesla FSD so it's difficult to make a direct comparison, but independent reviews generally indicate the Mercedes system is superior. Tesla doesn't have a viable technology path to general purpose SAE Level 4+ autonomous driving either, so I don't see any difference there. https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a39481699/what-happens-if-mercedes-drivepilot-causes-a-crash/ https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a39481699/what-happens-if-...
- peteradio 3y ago
  Stock would take a nose-dive.
dmix 3y ago
Why is everyone so overly dramatic about this stuff. I remember when FSD was announced on HN everyone knew it'd be way longer and he was just pumping it up cuz that's how he is. It wasn't some big surprise. Now everyone is acting like it's do or die, as if everyone bought Tesla's just so they won't have to ever touch a steering wheel at some point in the future. Only 19% opted for it and plenty of those are probably wealthy people who can afford novelties and all that matters at the end of the day is if you're competitive with the alternative options on the market (holistically not just feature to feature). Ultimately it's still just a car people bought instead of a BMW or whatever. They're not making car purchasing decisions comparing it to some beta project only running via taxis in silicon valley and some random small cities.
- homefree 3y ago
  HN is just generally awful on this topic and not worth commenting in imo. Tesla is very well positioned even if they did zero on FSD (which they won't). The Model Y was the best selling car on earth across all categories (including ICE and EVs!) - not sure what more you could want for car company success.
  - misiti3780 3y ago
    HN has a lot of people that hate Elon Musk because they disagree with his politics. It's clear to anyone that is on here every day since his twitter became popular. If you look back, 10 years ago HN loved him (see convo about first time 2 falcon 9s landed), but now that he is the richest man in the world the tides have turned.
    - DonHopkins 3y ago
      You say that like there's something wrong with disagreeing with anti semitism. Of COURSE people disagree with his politics. You'd have to be fucked in the head not to. HN isn't Stormfront, you know. His behavior changed and new facts arrived since he used to be popular, so reasonable people changed their minds about him, and unreasonable racists are now his new biggest fans. The reason people hate him is not that he's the richest man in the world, it's that he's a bigot. I'm stunned that I need to explain that to you. Is it actually news to you? If so, welcome out from under your rock. Or are you just pretending not to know, in order to troll?
jdewerd 3y ago
Why would they want to abandon FSD? I look up videos whenever these threads come out and over the last few years it seems to have made astonishing progress. 2 million miles per day of FSD driving is impressive. The resulting training data from every corner of the USA is a bonkers advantage.
- NovemberWhiskey 3y ago
  Only if you think this is actually a model training problem.
  - jdewerd 3y ago
    Their existing system is pretty strong evidence that it was in fact a model training problem -- do you mean to say that you think training will stall out before it gets to the point of being viable?
    - cmeacham98 3y ago
      I'll admit that I am by no means an expert and might be completely wrong, but yes, I believe that model training cannot fully solve driverless vehicles. All models that we train today have edge cases where the model produces wildly inaccurate output. As far as I'm aware, nobody yet has managed to squeeze this problem out. ChatGPT is still an overall useful tool with the occasional hallucination. Those types of edge cases in software driving a car are unacceptable.
      - misiti3780 3y ago
        I agree, but i think it's getting close to be much safer than humans driving on highways.
      - jankyxenon 3y ago
        Right, said another way, is driving a completely deterministic activity or does it sometimes require general intelligence. If it's not completely deterministic, then you might need a human in the loop.
londons_explore 3y ago
If they don't think it's achievable, the smart move at this point is to shrink the team down to just a few people and claim to still be working on it, while pushing incremental improvements every few months while telling customers and investors that 'its coming'. Any other move causes a precipitous drop in stock price as investors see that they won't be taking over the entire transportation industry. Oh wait, thats exactly what we see.
bigtex 3y ago
Correct, FSD is baked into the future success of Tesla. It is the hype engine that has helped keep the company alive all these years. However you notice they are starting to pull back from all there promises of robotaxi's and now Musk is calling it "supervised" FSD.

Tesla cannot abandon FSD, if they did Musk, and by extension (and due to all kinds of financial connetctions and dependencies) all his other companies would be in very serious trouble.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Not at all, Tesla has enough cash on hand to pay everyone out a few billion if there was a judgement wrt FSD. They outran the liability with the brand and sales.

te_chris 3y ago
The comment you're replying to is not talking about court-enforced liabilities. If the pull out of FSD they're basically Mercedes with a 5 year lead on manufacturing. That is categorically not a trillion dollar company and the house of cards leveraged against Tesla stock crumbles.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Nah, there is still enough collective delusion in the brand to keep the stock somewhat propped up vs legacy auto’s slow death. BYD and Tesla are crushing it comparatively and have the supply chain to keep ramping. No one else is selling meaningful volume at this time. Mercedes is certainly not the future in any meaningful way.
- karolist 3y ago
  5 year lead on manufacturing vs Mercedes? Are panel gaps and technicians swapping USDM headlights to EUDM on cargo ships transporting their cars to Europe a 5 year lead now?
  - fooker 3y ago
    You realize you can take this confidence and bet against TSLA right? If you're right it'll be a relatively great payday for you.
    - mehlmao 3y ago
      Gamestop proved to me that the market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent.
    - dom96 3y ago
      Many are shorting Tesla and continue to lose money because of the markets idiocy. If I were a billionaire I would short it, but as it stands I cannot risk losing money just because of stupid prolonged hype.
      - fooker 3y ago
        Have you ever been wrong about something or was it always attributed to someone else's idiocy?
    - karolist 3y ago
      I'm not betting against anything, my money is going to real estate me and my family will live in, not WSB gambles. Also, betting against hordes or Tesla fanboys does not seem rational at all, doesn't mean the product is any good or has a bright future still.
  - te_chris 3y ago
    They’re definitely ahead in EV process. I don’t like them or Musk, but that’s undeniable. Whether that leads to a better finish is debatable.
- nradov 3y ago
  I don't understand what you mean. Mercedes-Benz is currently ahead of Tesla on autonomous driving. They have a working SAE Level 3 system already. It is currently very limited but will expand over time. https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz-drive-pilot-review/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz...
  - GreedClarifies 3y ago
    lol
  - jdewerd 3y ago
    DRIVE PILOT is ready to chauffeur you under conditions that help ensure a secure ride. Conditions include: Clear lane markings on approved freeways Moderate to heavy traffic with speeds under 40 MPH Daytime lighting and clear weather Driver visible by camera located above driver's display There is no construction zone present. and from the manual: The distance [to the vehicle in front] is neither too small nor too large How is this remotely comparable to FSD? Drive Pilot is less technologically ambitious than the 1995 CMU No Hands Across America vehicle, which happened 28 years ago. Polishing it enough to accept liability is cool, but there is no technology path from follow-the-leader to general purpose self-driving.
    - nradov 3y ago
      Mercedes Drive Pilot is aimed at a different use case than Tesla FSD so it's difficult to make a direct comparison, but independent reviews generally indicate the Mercedes system is superior. Tesla doesn't have a viable technology path to general purpose SAE Level 4+ autonomous driving either, so I don't see any difference there. https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a39481699/what-happens-if-mercedes-drivepilot-causes-a-crash/ https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a39481699/what-happens-if-...
peteradio 3y ago
Stock would take a nose-dive.

dmix 3y ago

Why is everyone so overly dramatic about this stuff. I remember when FSD was announced on HN everyone knew it'd be way longer and he was just pumping it up cuz that's how he is. It wasn't some big surprise. Now everyone is acting like it's do or die, as if everyone bought Tesla's just so they won't have to ever touch a steering wheel at some point in the future. Only 19% opted for it and plenty of those are probably wealthy people who can afford novelties and all that matters at the end of the day is if you're competitive with the alternative options on the market (holistically not just feature to feature). Ultimately it's still just a car people bought instead of a BMW or whatever. They're not making car purchasing decisions comparing it to some beta project only running via taxis in silicon valley and some random small cities.

homefree 3y ago
HN is just generally awful on this topic and not worth commenting in imo. Tesla is very well positioned even if they did zero on FSD (which they won't). The Model Y was the best selling car on earth across all categories (including ICE and EVs!) - not sure what more you could want for car company success.
- misiti3780 3y ago
  HN has a lot of people that hate Elon Musk because they disagree with his politics. It's clear to anyone that is on here every day since his twitter became popular. If you look back, 10 years ago HN loved him (see convo about first time 2 falcon 9s landed), but now that he is the richest man in the world the tides have turned.
  - DonHopkins 3y ago
    You say that like there's something wrong with disagreeing with anti semitism. Of COURSE people disagree with his politics. You'd have to be fucked in the head not to. HN isn't Stormfront, you know. His behavior changed and new facts arrived since he used to be popular, so reasonable people changed their minds about him, and unreasonable racists are now his new biggest fans. The reason people hate him is not that he's the richest man in the world, it's that he's a bigot. I'm stunned that I need to explain that to you. Is it actually news to you? If so, welcome out from under your rock. Or are you just pretending not to know, in order to troll?

jdewerd 3y ago

Why would they want to abandon FSD? I look up videos whenever these threads come out and over the last few years it seems to have made astonishing progress. 2 million miles per day of FSD driving is impressive. The resulting training data from every corner of the USA is a bonkers advantage.

NovemberWhiskey 3y ago
Only if you think this is actually a model training problem.
- jdewerd 3y ago
  Their existing system is pretty strong evidence that it was in fact a model training problem -- do you mean to say that you think training will stall out before it gets to the point of being viable?
  - cmeacham98 3y ago
    I'll admit that I am by no means an expert and might be completely wrong, but yes, I believe that model training cannot fully solve driverless vehicles. All models that we train today have edge cases where the model produces wildly inaccurate output. As far as I'm aware, nobody yet has managed to squeeze this problem out. ChatGPT is still an overall useful tool with the occasional hallucination. Those types of edge cases in software driving a car are unacceptable.
    - misiti3780 3y ago
      I agree, but i think it's getting close to be much safer than humans driving on highways.
    - jankyxenon 3y ago
      Right, said another way, is driving a completely deterministic activity or does it sometimes require general intelligence. If it's not completely deterministic, then you might need a human in the loop.

londons_explore 3y ago

If they don't think it's achievable, the smart move at this point is to shrink the team down to just a few people and claim to still be working on it, while pushing incremental improvements every few months while telling customers and investors that 'its coming'. Any other move causes a precipitous drop in stock price as investors see that they won't be taking over the entire transportation industry. Oh wait, thats exactly what we see.

bigtex 3y ago

Correct, FSD is baked into the future success of Tesla. It is the hype engine that has helped keep the company alive all these years. However you notice they are starting to pull back from all there promises of robotaxi's and now Musk is calling it "supervised" FSD.