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"For that matter, hardly anyone predicted the staggering, civilization-altering trajectory of neural network performance from roughly 2012 onwards." Whether th

"For that matter, hardly anyone predicted the staggering, civilization-altering trajectory of neural network performance from roughly 2012 onwards." Whether the trajectory will be civilization-altering is yet to be seen. Let me put it this way: I have serious doubts.

viraptor 3y ago
It's already been common-behaviour altering in many ways. I'm not sure if it counts as civilisation altering, but the way we create art, get creative review, find and consume large documents have suddenly changed. Not for the majority yet, but it's only a matter of time. For the first time we can get a knowledgeable ad-hoc assistant anywhere, immediately. Even if it's been bad in many ways, it's improving almost every day.
- orwin 3y ago
  > the way we create art, get creative review, find and consume large documents have suddenly changed. I disagree for your first two points. I do use generative AI to create image for my SWADE/DnD campaigns, but this is not art, this is illustration. There is no story behind the style, there is no story behind the color choice, or the meaning of the portraits. AI was able to imitate Art since at least imagemagik. Kazimir Malevich's art, at least. Music is the same. Unless you think a DJ mixing up without mods or adding anything is an artist, in this case you might consider AI music art. I consider it entertainment. Never got anything creative from ChatGPT, even when i was paying for it. Bing chat (and copilot) is great to replace google, scaffold a lot of my code, and definitely boosted my productivity somewhat. But there's a reason why i don't use it to write my scenarii (still use it to spellcheck and syntax check), and even dialogs i have given up on (faster to prepare it myself in the end).
kashyapc 3y ago
Yeah; it is absurd hyperbole. The only person I've seen talk sensible on these topics is Stuart Russell of "Human Compatible" (read the book, it's written with great clarity). He has his head firmly on his shoulders and eschews the breathless hype.
BigJono 3y ago
I dunno, after experiencing the 20 fps boost from DLSS I'm starting to think indoor plumbing and the wheel might've been a bit overrated.
williamcotton 3y ago
Surveillance tech? Factory tech? Voice recognition? And this is just a few non-transformer machine learning approaches!
gilbetron 3y ago
It already is altering civilization, so I don't understand your doubts. I work for a large unicorn tech and in a single year we went from execs saying "we'll look into this AI thing but we assume it is the usual hype" to creating multiple, successful AI products and encouraging developers to use AI software tools because of the recognition of a significant benefit to the business when they are used. We are at the very start of a logistic curve, and that initial exponential rate can seem like nothing. In a few years, we'll really start to feel it and in a decade or so it the change will become a blur, more like an instantaneous shift to another civilization.

viraptor 3y ago

It's already been common-behaviour altering in many ways. I'm not sure if it counts as civilisation altering, but the way we create art, get creative review, find and consume large documents have suddenly changed. Not for the majority yet, but it's only a matter of time. For the first time we can get a knowledgeable ad-hoc assistant anywhere, immediately. Even if it's been bad in many ways, it's improving almost every day.

orwin 3y ago
> the way we create art, get creative review, find and consume large documents have suddenly changed. I disagree for your first two points. I do use generative AI to create image for my SWADE/DnD campaigns, but this is not art, this is illustration. There is no story behind the style, there is no story behind the color choice, or the meaning of the portraits. AI was able to imitate Art since at least imagemagik. Kazimir Malevich's art, at least. Music is the same. Unless you think a DJ mixing up without mods or adding anything is an artist, in this case you might consider AI music art. I consider it entertainment. Never got anything creative from ChatGPT, even when i was paying for it. Bing chat (and copilot) is great to replace google, scaffold a lot of my code, and definitely boosted my productivity somewhat. But there's a reason why i don't use it to write my scenarii (still use it to spellcheck and syntax check), and even dialogs i have given up on (faster to prepare it myself in the end).

kashyapc 3y ago

Yeah; it is absurd hyperbole. The only person I've seen talk sensible on these topics is Stuart Russell of "Human Compatible" (read the book, it's written with great clarity). He has his head firmly on his shoulders and eschews the breathless hype.

BigJono 3y ago

I dunno, after experiencing the 20 fps boost from DLSS I'm starting to think indoor plumbing and the wheel might've been a bit overrated.

williamcotton 3y ago

Surveillance tech? Factory tech? Voice recognition? And this is just a few non-transformer machine learning approaches!

gilbetron 3y ago

It already is altering civilization, so I don't understand your doubts. I work for a large unicorn tech and in a single year we went from execs saying "we'll look into this AI thing but we assume it is the usual hype" to creating multiple, successful AI products and encouraging developers to use AI software tools because of the recognition of a significant benefit to the business when they are used. We are at the very start of a logistic curve, and that initial exponential rate can seem like nothing. In a few years, we'll really start to feel it and in a decade or so it the change will become a blur, more like an instantaneous shift to another civilization.