6 ms·

At what point is saying "it's two years away, trust me!" Not just naive optimism but false advertising or market manipulation? He publicly said this for like fo

At what point is saying "it's two years away, trust me!" Not just naive optimism but false advertising or market manipulation? He publicly said this for like four years, and then he walks it all back. I just don't get it. Any other little person does this and they would be big time side by investors and shareholders, and yet people want to trip all over each other talking about how awesome he is. Reminds me of another cult of personality. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_life_of_Joseph_Smith#Treasure_hunting https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_life_of_Joseph_Smith#T...

valval 3y ago
It never actually has to be a lie. Making predictions years into the future is impossible if variables are changing. He can make a perfectly truthful estimate of when the product will be ready as of today’s information, and then the information changes. It’s up to you as a consumer to either discredit the optimism or buy into it.
lll-o-lll 3y ago
Or, you know, fraud. Reminds me of different cult of personality. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theranos https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theranos
- stevage 3y ago
  Reminds me more of Trump to be honest.
ralfd 3y ago
On the other hand: Because he is always wrong with his timelines it cant be security fraud because everyone knows (and ridicules him/memes it) that his timelines are wrong.
xorcist 3y ago
After those two years have passed, probably. But the claim was actually stronger than that. It was that it should earn back the money it cost by running an autonomous taxi service during night and office hours. That specific claim was a scam from day one. That was not even on the research stage, and probably never will be.
- Qwertious 3y ago
  >That specific claim was a scam from day one. Also that would require lending your vehicle out to random strangers all the time, so you couldn't keep anything valuable/fragile in the car and you'd need to clean it rather frequently. Even on the face of it, it's more like owning a taxi than a car that makes you money.
  - xorcist 3y ago
    Not to mention the various licenses and insurances required to ferry people around. Anyone who gave it a second thought probably didn't take it seriously, but that didn't stop a whole bunch of fans and stock market analysts to sketch out some far flung implications.
  - mrguyorama 3y ago
    Right, you would have to run an Uber side business basically, and none of that is fun
- me_me_me 3y ago
  > it was that it should earn back the money it cost by running an autonomous taxi service during night and office hours This was the exact moment i woke up from musk's spell. Why would corporation create a money printing machine and sold it for pennies out of the goodness of their hearts? His bullshit is no longer working on me and empty claims are clear as day. Now that he is lacking new revolutionary ideas his bullshit is harder to hide behind next great thing he is 'working' on.
eVeechu7 3y ago
It's not he's still bullshitting that's remarkable, it's that people are still listening.
mrtksn 3y ago
It's more about the consumer's satisfaction IMHO. For one reason or another, it appears that the Tesla customers are happy with their purchase. There is a cult mentality and the cult members are happy with what they got, even if it's not exactly as advertised however it's not just about the cult mentality but it's about the overall experience of the product. I think if Elizabeth Holmes delivered slick blood testing machines that work no different than those on the market(large amount if blood instead of a drop), but had better workflow and user experience, Theranos could have been a success like Tesla. She tried to imitate Steve Jobs, had she imitated Elon Musk she would have been fine. She should have had the Siemens machines modified to work with modern GUI, developed some automation for drawing large quantities of blood in a pod at the mall and integrate all that with the healthcare and keep repeating that in 2 years just a drop of blood would ne enough. The only difference between Musk and Holmes was that Musk actually delivered something that had some redeeming properties.
- robertlagrant 3y ago
  > I think if Elizabeth Holmes delivered slick blood testing machines that work no different than those on the market(large amount if blood instead of a drop), but had better workflow and user experience, Theranos could have been a success like Tesla. I wouldn't have said that Tesla just imitated existing car companies. Can you elaborate?
  - mrtksn 3y ago
    I don't suggest that at all. What Tesla did was to create an electric car with good user experience without developing any revolutionary tech. That's what Theranos should have done, create a good user experience on the existing tech. They did wrong by betting on inventing the tech. If Tesla's prime value proposal was to invent some tech that will do something revolutionary, they would have gone bust like Theranos. Instead, they built charging network and kick ass infotainments system that made their electric cars practical.
    - suoduandao3 3y ago
      Tesla did and is betting on battery costs coming down due in part to tech under development and they could have been on the wrong side of that bet. I think unlike Theranos, battery tech has a semipredictable cost curve
layer8 3y ago
It was always false advertising.
mikpanko 3y ago
Not defending Musk, but investors and shareholders don’t abandon him because he has delivered huge returns to them through Tesla stock. He is always too optimistic (maybe intentionally) about the timelines, but ends up generating money in the end. Plus, he is super rich and people want to be close to big money - could lead to many benefits through networking and opportunities.
- highwaylights 3y ago
  Does he end up generating money in the end though? The only way to say that definitively is if Tesla were at some point in the future to shut up shop and return a balance to the shareholders many multiples of what they bought the stock for. Until that happens the plates are still spinning and could go either way.
  - valval 3y ago
    Yes, you’re absolutely right — nobody has ever made any money in the stock market in the history of the stock market. God, I wonder what kind of gotcha this was in your head.
treme 3y ago
yeah he over promised on FSD, but still delivered on reusable rockets, and more or less nudged all other manufacturers to producing eletric cars at minimum, a few years earlier than they intended to. He also exposed twitter's political bias & collusion with US security agencies, and exposed that the company can run with 80% less staff.
- saiya-jin 3y ago
  This then is a fine example that past performance is absolutely no indication of future one, despite our emotions screaming at us that its the case. We just don't like uncertainty or lack of trust environment by default, so subconsciously prefer replacing it with more comforting bad truth/lie rather than accepting the other choice.
- cma 3y ago
  > but still delivered on reusable rockets The Space Shuttle from the 80s was reusable too. Falcon 9 isn't fully reusable (upper stage) and now Starship drops some new ring into the sea. > More or less nudged all other manufacturers to producing eletric cars at minimum Didn't he instead let them delay making electric cars by transacting with them for their ZEV credits? I think the SpaceX stuff is still impressive, but he didn't deliver on his big statements. Dragon was supposed to land on Mars years ago for instance. The Space Shuttle wasn't economical, but Starship went back to lots of elements of its design.
  - dzhiurgis 3y ago
    > Didn't he instead let them delay making electric cars by transacting with them for their ZEV credits? Excellent step if you want your competitors to be hopelessly behind. It worked.
sonicanatidae 3y ago
It is another rabid cult of personality and his fanbois defend anything he does. He reminds me of another self-centered, self-entitled, hypocritical lying sack of human debris.
- ryanklee 3y ago
  Everyone will eventually agree on this point, except for alt right weirdos.
  - sonicanatidae 3y ago
    Well we already know alt right weirdos have their heads so far up their own asses they can lick their nostrils clean, so we'll just keep marginalizing them and their insanity.
    - ryanklee 3y ago
      It's not working. They are having the time of their lives right now.
      - sonicanatidae 3y ago
        Yeah, but until open season is declared on traitors, we don't have many options. Apparently, the laws magically don't apply to some folks.
- mlrtime 3y ago
  Which is equally balanced with the anti-fanbois that don't have a Tesla but still flock to any thread about Musk to voice their opinions. Look, I don't have a Tesla, never owned one. I don't use Twitter. I think Musk has major flaws. There is definitely a growing trend of anti-Musk vs Musk fanboi flame wars. This thread seems to be no better.
  - lawn 3y ago
    "Equally balanced" you say? If one side is demonstrably lying then it's disingenuous to make the two sides equally guilty.

valval 3y ago

It never actually has to be a lie. Making predictions years into the future is impossible if variables are changing. He can make a perfectly truthful estimate of when the product will be ready as of today’s information, and then the information changes. It’s up to you as a consumer to either discredit the optimism or buy into it.

lll-o-lll 3y ago

Or, you know, fraud. Reminds me of different cult of personality. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theranos https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theranos

stevage 3y ago
Reminds me more of Trump to be honest.

ralfd 3y ago

On the other hand: Because he is always wrong with his timelines it cant be security fraud because everyone knows (and ridicules him/memes it) that his timelines are wrong.

xorcist 3y ago

After those two years have passed, probably. But the claim was actually stronger than that. It was that it should earn back the money it cost by running an autonomous taxi service during night and office hours. That specific claim was a scam from day one. That was not even on the research stage, and probably never will be.

Qwertious 3y ago
>That specific claim was a scam from day one. Also that would require lending your vehicle out to random strangers all the time, so you couldn't keep anything valuable/fragile in the car and you'd need to clean it rather frequently. Even on the face of it, it's more like owning a taxi than a car that makes you money.
- xorcist 3y ago
  Not to mention the various licenses and insurances required to ferry people around. Anyone who gave it a second thought probably didn't take it seriously, but that didn't stop a whole bunch of fans and stock market analysts to sketch out some far flung implications.
- mrguyorama 3y ago
  Right, you would have to run an Uber side business basically, and none of that is fun
me_me_me 3y ago
> it was that it should earn back the money it cost by running an autonomous taxi service during night and office hours This was the exact moment i woke up from musk's spell. Why would corporation create a money printing machine and sold it for pennies out of the goodness of their hearts? His bullshit is no longer working on me and empty claims are clear as day. Now that he is lacking new revolutionary ideas his bullshit is harder to hide behind next great thing he is 'working' on.

eVeechu7 3y ago

It's not he's still bullshitting that's remarkable, it's that people are still listening.

mrtksn 3y ago

It's more about the consumer's satisfaction IMHO. For one reason or another, it appears that the Tesla customers are happy with their purchase. There is a cult mentality and the cult members are happy with what they got, even if it's not exactly as advertised however it's not just about the cult mentality but it's about the overall experience of the product. I think if Elizabeth Holmes delivered slick blood testing machines that work no different than those on the market(large amount if blood instead of a drop), but had better workflow and user experience, Theranos could have been a success like Tesla. She tried to imitate Steve Jobs, had she imitated Elon Musk she would have been fine. She should have had the Siemens machines modified to work with modern GUI, developed some automation for drawing large quantities of blood in a pod at the mall and integrate all that with the healthcare and keep repeating that in 2 years just a drop of blood would ne enough. The only difference between Musk and Holmes was that Musk actually delivered something that had some redeeming properties.

robertlagrant 3y ago
> I think if Elizabeth Holmes delivered slick blood testing machines that work no different than those on the market(large amount if blood instead of a drop), but had better workflow and user experience, Theranos could have been a success like Tesla. I wouldn't have said that Tesla just imitated existing car companies. Can you elaborate?
- mrtksn 3y ago
  I don't suggest that at all. What Tesla did was to create an electric car with good user experience without developing any revolutionary tech. That's what Theranos should have done, create a good user experience on the existing tech. They did wrong by betting on inventing the tech. If Tesla's prime value proposal was to invent some tech that will do something revolutionary, they would have gone bust like Theranos. Instead, they built charging network and kick ass infotainments system that made their electric cars practical.
  - suoduandao3 3y ago
    Tesla did and is betting on battery costs coming down due in part to tech under development and they could have been on the wrong side of that bet. I think unlike Theranos, battery tech has a semipredictable cost curve

layer8 3y ago

It was always false advertising.

mikpanko 3y ago

Not defending Musk, but investors and shareholders don’t abandon him because he has delivered huge returns to them through Tesla stock. He is always too optimistic (maybe intentionally) about the timelines, but ends up generating money in the end. Plus, he is super rich and people want to be close to big money - could lead to many benefits through networking and opportunities.

highwaylights 3y ago
Does he end up generating money in the end though? The only way to say that definitively is if Tesla were at some point in the future to shut up shop and return a balance to the shareholders many multiples of what they bought the stock for. Until that happens the plates are still spinning and could go either way.
- valval 3y ago
  Yes, you’re absolutely right — nobody has ever made any money in the stock market in the history of the stock market. God, I wonder what kind of gotcha this was in your head.

treme 3y ago

yeah he over promised on FSD, but still delivered on reusable rockets, and more or less nudged all other manufacturers to producing eletric cars at minimum, a few years earlier than they intended to. He also exposed twitter's political bias & collusion with US security agencies, and exposed that the company can run with 80% less staff.

saiya-jin 3y ago
This then is a fine example that past performance is absolutely no indication of future one, despite our emotions screaming at us that its the case. We just don't like uncertainty or lack of trust environment by default, so subconsciously prefer replacing it with more comforting bad truth/lie rather than accepting the other choice.
cma 3y ago
> but still delivered on reusable rockets The Space Shuttle from the 80s was reusable too. Falcon 9 isn't fully reusable (upper stage) and now Starship drops some new ring into the sea. > More or less nudged all other manufacturers to producing eletric cars at minimum Didn't he instead let them delay making electric cars by transacting with them for their ZEV credits? I think the SpaceX stuff is still impressive, but he didn't deliver on his big statements. Dragon was supposed to land on Mars years ago for instance. The Space Shuttle wasn't economical, but Starship went back to lots of elements of its design.
- dzhiurgis 3y ago
  > Didn't he instead let them delay making electric cars by transacting with them for their ZEV credits? Excellent step if you want your competitors to be hopelessly behind. It worked.

sonicanatidae 3y ago

It is another rabid cult of personality and his fanbois defend anything he does. He reminds me of another self-centered, self-entitled, hypocritical lying sack of human debris.

ryanklee 3y ago
Everyone will eventually agree on this point, except for alt right weirdos.
- sonicanatidae 3y ago
  Well we already know alt right weirdos have their heads so far up their own asses they can lick their nostrils clean, so we'll just keep marginalizing them and their insanity.
  - ryanklee 3y ago
    It's not working. They are having the time of their lives right now.
    - sonicanatidae 3y ago
      Yeah, but until open season is declared on traitors, we don't have many options. Apparently, the laws magically don't apply to some folks.
mlrtime 3y ago
Which is equally balanced with the anti-fanbois that don't have a Tesla but still flock to any thread about Musk to voice their opinions. Look, I don't have a Tesla, never owned one. I don't use Twitter. I think Musk has major flaws. There is definitely a growing trend of anti-Musk vs Musk fanboi flame wars. This thread seems to be no better.
- lawn 3y ago
  "Equally balanced" you say? If one side is demonstrably lying then it's disingenuous to make the two sides equally guilty.