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This is an obviously tough subject to get precise data on, but dark figure analysis and innocence project data indicates that the CONVICTED innocent percentage
by Lord-Jobo 3y ago
This is an obviously tough subject to get precise data on, but dark figure analysis and innocence project data indicates that the CONVICTED innocent percentage is 1-3%, i have seen individual studies peak at 7% but those are outliers and not likely to be the real number.
this seems really good until you realize its 20,000-140,000 people in prison right now. that are innocent.
and it gets REALLY bleak when you look at the 400,000 people who are locked up at any given time, pretrial, in jail. who are legally innocent. The proportion of individuals held in jail pending trial increased from 56 percent of the jail population in 2000 to 66 percent in 2018 (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-better-path-forward-for-criminal-justice-reimagining-pretrial-and-sentencing/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-better-path-forward-for...)
so, of the roughly 2 million people behind any bars at any given time, 400,000-500,000 are innocent. 25%.
- causal 3y agoThanks for bringing that data. And yeah, half a million is a staggering number if true.
- qingcharles 3y agoAnd it completely depends on what you mean by innocent. A lot of cases are won by defendants, who after spending years in pretrial, find the prosecution did not have enough evidence to convict them. I've been witness to some far-out jury cases where the defendant was massively guilty but the jury acquitted for some reason. That's why I would often recommend a jury trial in a lot of cases simply because juries have such a high randomness attached to them.
- annexrichmond 3y agoHey hope you're doing well - have your charges have been fully dropped finally?
- qingcharles 3y ago99% of them dropped two weeks ago. Working on the last one now. Will post more once it is all over. Thank you!
- annexrichmond 3y agoLove to hear it, good luck!
- pc86 3y agoI really don't think pretrial detention counts. There is a long-standing and legitimate public interest in detaining some people while they await trial. A court can find you a flight risk, or a danger to society, during arraignment before your trial without violating your due process rights. And I'm not sure "the proportion of individuals held in jail pending trial" increasing means anything. What are the number of cases this correlates to? Have the raw or per capita numbers increased? What are the other reasons you could be held in jail other than pending trial, which apparently decreased from 44% to 34%? And not to be too overly pedantic, but the original question was about prison specifically which is distinctly different from jail.