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I tried for a bit to understand this paper since the result, if true, seems extremely significant. If I understand correctly they are saying that non renewable

by svara 3y ago

I tried for a bit to understand this paper since the result, if true, seems extremely significant. If I understand correctly they are saying that non renewable resources, specifically oil, will soon run out, leading to a collapse in industrial output which in turn leads to a loss of agricultural efficiency and thus famine. In their plots, they show non renewable inputs to industry and farming running out right about now. This seems like complete nonsense? You can make a model say literally anything... If this was true, we'd see commodity prices going through the roof as a long term trend. And even if that was happening, the food supply would be the last thing affected due to the demand being completely inelastic.

woleium 3y ago
i am a but concerned about soil compaction after the transition though. Farm machinery has been getting heavier and heavier. Compaction is already an issue. If we change to batteries within the next 30 years this problem will get much worse very quickly.
marcosdumay 3y ago
They show availability of non-renewable resources declining from the 00's to a few decades ahead, depending on what resource you track. And those almost perfectly coincide with those resources prices exploding. The book uses some very well informed geological predictions. Where it completely fails is on making any good sociological prediction derived from those. (Like the impact on farming.)
- svara 3y ago
  > They show availability of non-renewable resources declining from the 00's to a few decades ahead, depending on what resource you track. And those almost perfectly coincide with those resources prices exploding Are you referring to something available online? Not sure I want to buy the 1972 book, but I'd love to see this data.
polotics 3y ago
Energy prices do not follow the simple price elasticity curves of substitutable goods: check out the non-correlation curve between availability and price for oil, as published by JM.Jancovici, also his explanation of why.
Beijinger 3y ago
Things are complex. "If this was true, we'd see commodity prices going through the roof as a long term trend." Yes. Sure. Like USD 1000 a barrel. But wait, the economy is already collapsing at USD 100 a barrel. Fact is, the workers can only afford products within some price range. In fact I believe we will indeed never run out of oil. A lot of oil will just stay there, where it is. In the ground. The question is, are the problems with inflation and balance sheets of many central banks linked to the limits of growth and are this countermeasures? Also some interesting posts from Ugo Bardi: https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/peak-civilization-how-the-roman-empire https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/peak-civilization-how-th... https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-the-west-according https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-the-west-...
- username332211 3y ago
  I find it funny that a blog taking it's name from the Roman empire would make the claim decline must be faster than growth. The growth of the Roman commonwealth was largely completed over the course of the republic's 482 year lifetime. The empire that followed was established in 27 BC and ended with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Even the fall of the western part took slightly more than 500 years.
  - Beijinger 3y ago
    Rome ended around 500. "ended with the fall of Constantinople in 1453" Then you can claim it never ended. "Up until about one century ago, the Roman Empire was popular enough that the rulers of Russia still used the title of “Czars” derived from the name of the first Roman Emperor and they called Moscow “The Third Rome,” with the first two being Rome and Constantinople." (don't underestimte this claim for Russians self identity!) This graph gives a pretty good description: https://davidgalbraith.org/trivia/graph-of-the-population-of-rome-through-history/2189/ https://davidgalbraith.org/trivia/graph-of-the-population-of... Rome had a population of around 1MM (some claim 3MM) and ralaitvly quick declined to 0.1MM. NYC has 8MM Inhabitants. Imagine it would collapse quickly to 0.8 MM with many houses not occupied, broken and the infrastructure rotten. Non functioning cars on the street and if you were to ask one what these cars are they would tell you: No idea. Some kind of horse carriage but much to heavy, we don't use it anymore, because they lost most of their knowledge in technology.

by svara 3y ago

woleium 3y ago

i am a but concerned about soil compaction after the transition though. Farm machinery has been getting heavier and heavier. Compaction is already an issue. If we change to batteries within the next 30 years this problem will get much worse very quickly.

marcosdumay 3y ago

They show availability of non-renewable resources declining from the 00's to a few decades ahead, depending on what resource you track. And those almost perfectly coincide with those resources prices exploding. The book uses some very well informed geological predictions. Where it completely fails is on making any good sociological prediction derived from those. (Like the impact on farming.)

svara 3y ago
> They show availability of non-renewable resources declining from the 00's to a few decades ahead, depending on what resource you track. And those almost perfectly coincide with those resources prices exploding Are you referring to something available online? Not sure I want to buy the 1972 book, but I'd love to see this data.

polotics 3y ago

Energy prices do not follow the simple price elasticity curves of substitutable goods: check out the non-correlation curve between availability and price for oil, as published by JM.Jancovici, also his explanation of why.

Beijinger 3y ago

Things are complex. "If this was true, we'd see commodity prices going through the roof as a long term trend." Yes. Sure. Like USD 1000 a barrel. But wait, the economy is already collapsing at USD 100 a barrel. Fact is, the workers can only afford products within some price range. In fact I believe we will indeed never run out of oil. A lot of oil will just stay there, where it is. In the ground. The question is, are the problems with inflation and balance sheets of many central banks linked to the limits of growth and are this countermeasures? Also some interesting posts from Ugo Bardi: https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/peak-civilization-how-the-roman-empire https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/peak-civilization-how-th... https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-the-west-according https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-decline-of-the-west-...

username332211 3y ago
I find it funny that a blog taking it's name from the Roman empire would make the claim decline must be faster than growth. The growth of the Roman commonwealth was largely completed over the course of the republic's 482 year lifetime. The empire that followed was established in 27 BC and ended with the fall of Constantinople in 1453. Even the fall of the western part took slightly more than 500 years.
- Beijinger 3y ago
  Rome ended around 500. "ended with the fall of Constantinople in 1453" Then you can claim it never ended. "Up until about one century ago, the Roman Empire was popular enough that the rulers of Russia still used the title of “Czars” derived from the name of the first Roman Emperor and they called Moscow “The Third Rome,” with the first two being Rome and Constantinople." (don't underestimte this claim for Russians self identity!) This graph gives a pretty good description: https://davidgalbraith.org/trivia/graph-of-the-population-of-rome-through-history/2189/ https://davidgalbraith.org/trivia/graph-of-the-population-of... Rome had a population of around 1MM (some claim 3MM) and ralaitvly quick declined to 0.1MM. NYC has 8MM Inhabitants. Imagine it would collapse quickly to 0.8 MM with many houses not occupied, broken and the infrastructure rotten. Non functioning cars on the street and if you were to ask one what these cars are they would tell you: No idea. Some kind of horse carriage but much to heavy, we don't use it anymore, because they lost most of their knowledge in technology.