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i feel like this is largely motivated by growing qualms over being highly dependent on China. They are not alone by far, but Apple truly is an extraordinary cas

i feel like this is largely motivated by growing qualms over being highly dependent on China. They are not alone by far, but Apple truly is an extraordinary case of being enitrely at the mercy of china playing their role. COVID was the event that lowered the tide enough to, painfully so, expose whos swimming naked. Now, add growing concerns over IP protection plus political volatility, and you have a situation that makes shareholders and executives queasy when rethinking their current position. China also isnt as cheap as it used to be, has economic troubles and faces an impending population collapse. Thats one hell of an uncertain future, soon-to-be superpowers dont tend to suddenly stop providing key metrics regarding their population and economy. Lets see how they handle their own personal 2008, Evergrande aint lookin too good either.

yieldcrv 3y ago
Vietnam is a single party state capitalist system nominally called the Communist Party that teaches the same Marxist ideology as China. Vietnam's head of state and head of party can serve just as many terms as Xi Jinping has so far. Vietnam's system as all the same trappings as China's when it comes to political dissent or anything that can "undermine the territorial sovereignty and unity", an idea that can be used to control all facets of life. There are major human rights violations and concerns occurring there as well. The general lack of trepidation about Vietnam, from the West, is solely due to Vietnam's irrelevancy, and Vietnam playing their own irrelevancy as friendliness for their own protection, it makes sense and they have no reason to do otherwise. My only point here is that the primary issues we have with China is not their system, just their market power.
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  Your last two paragraphs are bang on the money. Manufacturing is moving to Vietnam because it is politically, economically and militarily weak enough that it can easily be bullied into compliance/submission by the US in case it ever decides to go rogue and threaten US investments, or have the audacity to spin it's own domestic champions to compete with US players. China was also like that 30 years ago but has now become strong and influential enough that it can not longer be bullied into just being the submissive sweatshop of the world it once was. I recommend you watch the video that aged like fine wine: 'Meet King Joe - 1949 - Cold War Era American Propaganda Cartoon': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-6YQQ779YM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-6YQQ779YM
  - Muromec 3y ago
    Why bully foreign governments you can buy?
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      In case buying doesn't work. Then you wakeup with a coup in your back yard.
      - astrange 3y ago
        Kissinger's dead. You don't have to sit around patting yourself on the back about him anymore. You can tell none of this is going to happen because of the zero times it's happened.
  - baybal2 3y ago
    [dead]
- biztos 3y ago
  If by “market power” you mean a desire to invade Taiwan, debt-trap diplomacy, the open pursuit of totalitarian norms replacing Western ones globally, and territorial acquisitiveness in opposition to international law (just to name a few things) then yeah, sure, that’s what it is. But even then, if you want a partner who is close to China but not beholden to China, and for historical reasons will probably never be, then Vietnam is a great choice. Is there any evidence that Vietnam would be as belligerent as China, were it only a little richer?
  - modernpink 3y ago
    China is the greatest civilisational threat to the West we have seen since Persia or the Umayyad Caliphate. The fact that the West has allowed letting China grow as much as it has done will be seen as one of the most fatal mistakes in grand strategy in history. That strategy had a purpose for defeating the Soviet Union, but after it had collapsed China had served its purpose for us and should have been isolated by the international community again.
    - user_named 3y ago
      "allowed" found the murican
  - yieldcrv 3y ago
    Okay, sure, I dont see these aspects of the PRC the same way you do. Taiwan hasn't always been the little democracy victim. They were quite totalitarian until like a couple decades ago. They have a competing claim to the shape of China that makes a mockery of the entire nation state concept. Its fun to imagine a democracy version of China, but a lot of the border disputes would be the same, the status of tibet would still be the same, and so on. Its the same people, they just lost. Its very similar to the story of the Hunger Games and realizing the liberated 13th district was the same as the status quo. Once we get stateside semiconductors this stops being our problem. Next, debt-traps. The IMF and World bank do the same, I cant create a separate higher standard for China. These approaches are far superior to colonialism by force, which is an inferior model that the west/US also does. The US’ colonialism currently undermines its own national security by its approach to the middle east. China’s approach completely exempts it from Jihad and allows it trade and growth. Sorry, cant take the US perspective on this one. Totalitarian norms: I disagree about China’s expansionist ambitions. I think this is once again projection from the west. China’s norm extension occurs when interacting with China, so if you want movies there you have to change the movies, and they monitor their citizens and students around the world. Their business, I wouldnt want to grow up in that environment but its their business. But everything you wrote reads like projection. Its not just about how hypocritical the west is, our main disagreement is in the scope of China’s political aims. I think culturally they are quite contained, they want a unified China and enhanced trade, thats it. This will be at the expense of Taiwan and fishing zones, and thats it. Countries might even do trade in their currency, omg oh noes.
- modernpink 3y ago
  Exactly, the West can bring to bear its might on Vietnam if they step out of line, especially since they themselves are not much fans of the Chinese and will be more than happy to work with the West. For Western consumers and companies we have learnt the lesson that if we want to keep the flow of cheap products, we need to diversify the pool of labour we draw upon and to keep them dependent instead of building them up to be competitors in the supply of products as well as competitors as consumers of those products. The crucial moment in the China strategy was in 2008 when we should have started on/friend shoring rather than leaving it until now. Instead with the West facing economic calamity at the time, we wanted the economically easy solution of letting China continue its integration into the global supply chain.
  - astrange 3y ago
    This is a typical case where cynical answers are wrong. The good thing about Chinese manufacturing isn't that it's cheap - it hasn't been cheap for a while now. It's that they're really good at it. Nothing's as expensive as a product that doesn't work.
- resolutebat 3y ago
  > Vietnam's head of state and head of party can serve just as many terms as Xi Jinping has so far. They can, but to date, they don't: the Politburo holds the power and the head of state rotates regularly. Aside from Ho Chi Minh (who's long dead), there is no cult of personality in Vietnam, you won't find a single poster of the current leader anywhere. That said, China also tried very hard to prevent another Mao by building in all sorts of safeguards, only for Xi to come along and stomp all over them.
biztos 3y ago
Given Apple’s profit margin I doubt the costs per se are much of a factor. But I think there have been two administrations in a row that probably (hopefully?) reached out to “Tim Apple” and suggested he imagine a future in which stuff doesn’t come from China. And if you’re looking for industrious, ambitious people who will definitely not be in China’s pocket, Vietnam is a great place to look.
berserk1010 3y ago
There are also a few recent developments that should frighten any foreign companies that are still operating in China - China's government's unprecedented and nationally coordinated audit on Foxconn's taxes and real estates in China. You could say that it is politically motivated, given the ceo of Foxconn was at one point running for president in Taiwan. However, he has since stepped out of the race, yet the audit is still ongoing. No doubt this has scared many Taiwanese firms to quickly move out of China, since this is just part of recent trend to try to squeeze money out of any capitalists (foreign or homegrown) since China is very very broke. (no, their now dwindling $800B dollar reserves is smaller than the dollar debt they owe abroad) - a ton of recent arrest and prevention of foreign executives from leaving China. For example Japanese https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-an-executives-arrest-struck-blow-japan-china-business-2023-11-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-an-executives... and American https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/business/china-business-company-raid.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/business/china-business-c.... This has prompted many companies to pull their employees out of China. Recently Moody downgraded China's rating, and Moody issued warnings to its employees in China https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-staff-in-china-wfh-during-credit-downgrade-fearing-inspection-2023-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-staff-in-china-wfh-du... - Russia's recent nationalization of foreign company assets. Being that China is allied with Russia in war against Europe and US, supplying Russia, and has the same dictatorship quality, it is very likely China will walk down the same path of nationalizing Apple's assets
gscott 3y ago
I wonder what Tim Cook was thinking when the CCP sent in their "disinfection" crews and threw all of Foxconns employees personal items out. There are a lot of straws breaking the camels back but Tim Cook juiced profits centralizing in China but eventually, and it did take a while, having all of Apples fruit in one basket became untenable.
- Erratic6576 3y ago
  It’s still cheaper than hiring American workers

yieldcrv 3y ago

Vietnam is a single party state capitalist system nominally called the Communist Party that teaches the same Marxist ideology as China. Vietnam's head of state and head of party can serve just as many terms as Xi Jinping has so far. Vietnam's system as all the same trappings as China's when it comes to political dissent or anything that can "undermine the territorial sovereignty and unity", an idea that can be used to control all facets of life. There are major human rights violations and concerns occurring there as well. The general lack of trepidation about Vietnam, from the West, is solely due to Vietnam's irrelevancy, and Vietnam playing their own irrelevancy as friendliness for their own protection, it makes sense and they have no reason to do otherwise. My only point here is that the primary issues we have with China is not their system, just their market power.

FirmwareBurner 3y ago
Your last two paragraphs are bang on the money. Manufacturing is moving to Vietnam because it is politically, economically and militarily weak enough that it can easily be bullied into compliance/submission by the US in case it ever decides to go rogue and threaten US investments, or have the audacity to spin it's own domestic champions to compete with US players. China was also like that 30 years ago but has now become strong and influential enough that it can not longer be bullied into just being the submissive sweatshop of the world it once was. I recommend you watch the video that aged like fine wine: 'Meet King Joe - 1949 - Cold War Era American Propaganda Cartoon': https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-6YQQ779YM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-6YQQ779YM
- Muromec 3y ago
  Why bully foreign governments you can buy?
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    In case buying doesn't work. Then you wakeup with a coup in your back yard.
    - astrange 3y ago
      Kissinger's dead. You don't have to sit around patting yourself on the back about him anymore. You can tell none of this is going to happen because of the zero times it's happened.
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]
biztos 3y ago
If by “market power” you mean a desire to invade Taiwan, debt-trap diplomacy, the open pursuit of totalitarian norms replacing Western ones globally, and territorial acquisitiveness in opposition to international law (just to name a few things) then yeah, sure, that’s what it is. But even then, if you want a partner who is close to China but not beholden to China, and for historical reasons will probably never be, then Vietnam is a great choice. Is there any evidence that Vietnam would be as belligerent as China, were it only a little richer?
- modernpink 3y ago
  China is the greatest civilisational threat to the West we have seen since Persia or the Umayyad Caliphate. The fact that the West has allowed letting China grow as much as it has done will be seen as one of the most fatal mistakes in grand strategy in history. That strategy had a purpose for defeating the Soviet Union, but after it had collapsed China had served its purpose for us and should have been isolated by the international community again.
  - user_named 3y ago
    "allowed" found the murican
- yieldcrv 3y ago
  Okay, sure, I dont see these aspects of the PRC the same way you do. Taiwan hasn't always been the little democracy victim. They were quite totalitarian until like a couple decades ago. They have a competing claim to the shape of China that makes a mockery of the entire nation state concept. Its fun to imagine a democracy version of China, but a lot of the border disputes would be the same, the status of tibet would still be the same, and so on. Its the same people, they just lost. Its very similar to the story of the Hunger Games and realizing the liberated 13th district was the same as the status quo. Once we get stateside semiconductors this stops being our problem. Next, debt-traps. The IMF and World bank do the same, I cant create a separate higher standard for China. These approaches are far superior to colonialism by force, which is an inferior model that the west/US also does. The US’ colonialism currently undermines its own national security by its approach to the middle east. China’s approach completely exempts it from Jihad and allows it trade and growth. Sorry, cant take the US perspective on this one. Totalitarian norms: I disagree about China’s expansionist ambitions. I think this is once again projection from the west. China’s norm extension occurs when interacting with China, so if you want movies there you have to change the movies, and they monitor their citizens and students around the world. Their business, I wouldnt want to grow up in that environment but its their business. But everything you wrote reads like projection. Its not just about how hypocritical the west is, our main disagreement is in the scope of China’s political aims. I think culturally they are quite contained, they want a unified China and enhanced trade, thats it. This will be at the expense of Taiwan and fishing zones, and thats it. Countries might even do trade in their currency, omg oh noes.
modernpink 3y ago
Exactly, the West can bring to bear its might on Vietnam if they step out of line, especially since they themselves are not much fans of the Chinese and will be more than happy to work with the West. For Western consumers and companies we have learnt the lesson that if we want to keep the flow of cheap products, we need to diversify the pool of labour we draw upon and to keep them dependent instead of building them up to be competitors in the supply of products as well as competitors as consumers of those products. The crucial moment in the China strategy was in 2008 when we should have started on/friend shoring rather than leaving it until now. Instead with the West facing economic calamity at the time, we wanted the economically easy solution of letting China continue its integration into the global supply chain.
- astrange 3y ago
  This is a typical case where cynical answers are wrong. The good thing about Chinese manufacturing isn't that it's cheap - it hasn't been cheap for a while now. It's that they're really good at it. Nothing's as expensive as a product that doesn't work.
resolutebat 3y ago
> Vietnam's head of state and head of party can serve just as many terms as Xi Jinping has so far. They can, but to date, they don't: the Politburo holds the power and the head of state rotates regularly. Aside from Ho Chi Minh (who's long dead), there is no cult of personality in Vietnam, you won't find a single poster of the current leader anywhere. That said, China also tried very hard to prevent another Mao by building in all sorts of safeguards, only for Xi to come along and stomp all over them.

biztos 3y ago

Given Apple’s profit margin I doubt the costs per se are much of a factor. But I think there have been two administrations in a row that probably (hopefully?) reached out to “Tim Apple” and suggested he imagine a future in which stuff doesn’t come from China. And if you’re looking for industrious, ambitious people who will definitely not be in China’s pocket, Vietnam is a great place to look.

berserk1010 3y ago

There are also a few recent developments that should frighten any foreign companies that are still operating in China - China's government's unprecedented and nationally coordinated audit on Foxconn's taxes and real estates in China. You could say that it is politically motivated, given the ceo of Foxconn was at one point running for president in Taiwan. However, he has since stepped out of the race, yet the audit is still ongoing. No doubt this has scared many Taiwanese firms to quickly move out of China, since this is just part of recent trend to try to squeeze money out of any capitalists (foreign or homegrown) since China is very very broke. (no, their now dwindling $800B dollar reserves is smaller than the dollar debt they owe abroad) - a ton of recent arrest and prevention of foreign executives from leaving China. For example Japanese https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-an-executives-arrest-struck-blow-japan-china-business-2023-11-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-an-executives... and American https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/business/china-business-company-raid.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/24/business/china-business-c.... This has prompted many companies to pull their employees out of China. Recently Moody downgraded China's rating, and Moody issued warnings to its employees in China https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-staff-in-china-wfh-during-credit-downgrade-fearing-inspection-2023-12 https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-staff-in-china-wfh-du... - Russia's recent nationalization of foreign company assets. Being that China is allied with Russia in war against Europe and US, supplying Russia, and has the same dictatorship quality, it is very likely China will walk down the same path of nationalizing Apple's assets

gscott 3y ago

I wonder what Tim Cook was thinking when the CCP sent in their "disinfection" crews and threw all of Foxconns employees personal items out. There are a lot of straws breaking the camels back but Tim Cook juiced profits centralizing in China but eventually, and it did take a while, having all of Apples fruit in one basket became untenable.

Erratic6576 3y ago
It’s still cheaper than hiring American workers