4 ms·

I like these kinds of analysis of books because you can be almost certain that the author did not have historical populations in mind when deciding on settlemen

by Aeolun 3y ago

I like these kinds of analysis of books because you can be almost certain that the author did not have historical populations in mind when deciding on settlement and army sizes. Though I’ll admit Tolkien could be an outlier here. He seems to have been quite thorough on a bunch of things.

jandrese 3y ago
I remember an analysis of the plate tectonics of Middle Earth and coming to the conclusion that it doesn't really work, but you can't blame Tolkien for this as the entire field of plate tectonics was invented a few years after he made the map.
- labster 3y ago
  I think it’s this one: https://www.tor.com/2017/08/01/tolkiens-map-and-the-messed-up-mountains-of-middle-earth/ https://www.tor.com/2017/08/01/tolkiens-map-and-the-messed-u... I just read it because I’m thinking about writing a crossover fanfic between Tolkien and Sailor Moon set at the end of the Fourth Age/Silver Millennium, and I need to figure out the geography. I’ve mainly settled on throwing out Tolkien’s map, drinking a long draught of Graham Hancock kool-aid, and setting the thing in the Younger Dryas. (The core conceit: Eärendil’s silmaril === Usagi’s silver crystal.)
  - becquerel 3y ago
    I think it is your moral duty to write this fanfic.
    - labster 3y ago
      I have a very little bit written here, but it’s been a while. Other projects, of course, and I think I’m allowed to overthink on a Tolkien fic. http://www.accessdenied-rms.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=13894 http://www.accessdenied-rms.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=13...
  - canjobear 3y ago
    The analysis neglects that the Misty Mountains were raised by Melkor to prevent the westward march of the Eldar.
- shiroiuma 3y ago
  I think you need to assume that Middle-Earth is set in a fantasy world where there are no plate tectonics. The world there isn't even spherical. It's a bit similar to the world in "Game of Thrones": that one too is a fantasy world that doesn't follow the regular laws of astrophysics, and doesn't even appear to be a planet at all.
  - gpderetta 3y ago
    At the time of the third age Middle-Earth is indeed spherical. Eru explicitly changed it after the fall of Numenor, putting Valinor out of reach. It was flat before. The final war with Morgoth also destroyed a good chunk of western middle earth With such common and devastating divine interventions it is not surprising that plate tectonic is not a good predictor of geography :D. Note that Arda is supposed to be planet Earth , circa ~10000 years ago, but of course the geography only vaguely matches.
ffgjgf1 3y ago
> did not have historical populations in mind when deciding on settlement and army sizes. European populations were not at all static. There were many massive population declines more or less going back to the beginning of agriculture as far as we can tell https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_decline https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_decline Climate change, the plague (usually one accompanied the other) and to a much lesser extent warfare occasionally reduced populations on a regional scale by more than 70%. Often leaving large areas very sparsely inhabited or even abandoned. As dar as we know the last major plague in Middle Earth occurred almost 1400 years before the events described in the LOTR yet the populations never seemingly recovered in much of it. In contrast in Europe recovery took about 300-400 years. However we must take into account that the plague remained endemic and kept reoccurring regularly during those periods, which put a massive downwards pressure on population growth. From what we can tell human populations can grow at an extremely fast pace by premodern standards if resources are ample and climatic conditions are good. For instance according to some estimates the populations of medieval England and some other countries in Northern Europe might have almost tripled between the 1100s and the 1300s. In a completely empty place like Eriador that must have happened at an even faster rate (e.g. the British colonies in New England). After the collapse of the Northern kingdoms Bree supposedly thrived for centuries without any major calamities. That doesn’t make any sense though, assuming a couple of thousand people lived there initially with all the ample land a population of ~2000 would have increased to over 100k at a somewhat conservative growth rate of ~2% (and it’s unlikely that its initial population could’ve ever been that low considering all the refugees etc.). Something similar applies to the Shire as well. So overall I don’t think we can really apply real world demographics to middle earth. There certainly must have been some force/factor not directly described by Tolkien that kept growth rates very low.
- shiroiuma 3y ago
  >That doesn’t make any sense though, assuming a couple of thousand people lived there initially with all the ample land a population of ~2000 would have increased to over 100k at a somewhat conservative growth rate of ~2%... >So overall I don’t think we can really apply real world demographics to middle earth. There certainly must have been some force/factor not directly described by Tolkien that kept growth rates very low. Perhaps women in Tolkein's world are far less fertile than in our world (except for Samwise's wife). Or maybe they developed some effective contraception.
OscarCunningham 3y ago
I think one factor is that Tolkien had read a lot of actual classical and medieval literature. So he would know what felt right for a story even if he didn't know the historic and economic details.
veddox 3y ago
> Though I’ll admit Tolkien could be an outlier here. To quote a military historian‘s analysis: „ Tolkien’s first-person experience of war and his deep grounding in medieval and Anglo-Saxon literature means that – while Tolkien does not stop to discuss Aragorn’s tax policy – Middle Earth tends to fit within the ‘zone of the possible’ much more neatly than Westeros. Armies in Middle Earth move at normal speeds, the economic and population systems (and the human terrain with them) make sense, characters behave within the confines of religious belief and social custom, and so on.“ (https://acoup.blog/2019/10/06/new-acquisitions-how-fast-do-armies-move/ https://acoup.blog/2019/10/06/new-acquisitions-how-fast-do-a...)
jccooper 3y ago
Tolkien would have had at least a pretty good instinct for the feel of the post-Roman world as he was heavily exposed to primary sources... and lived in the turn-of-the-century English countryside, which would have still felt recognizably pre-modern. Many subsequent authors will have only seen modern or American or no countryside at all and get their impressions of "the middle ages" from a mostly-fictional cultural pastiche of Tolkien (who was really writing a Late Antique world), Dungeons and Dragons, Monty Python, etc. so it's no surprise their worlds are rather implausible.
- veddox 3y ago
  > who was really writing a Late Antique world I agree with all the rest of your comment, but I think this point is only partly correct. Gondor can be interpreted as Byzantinian (late Antiquity), but Rohan is rather Anglo-Saxon (early Middle Ages), and the Shire actually quite modern (18th-19th century England). Numenor of course is Atlantean (romanticised classical Antiquity), the Druadain are Stone/Bronze Age, and the Elves - are the Elves.
  - hydrok9 3y ago
    someone else pointed out that “Rohan” was a noble house of Celtic Brittany, were horse lords, and traced ancestry to a “Meriadoc.”

by Aeolun 3y ago

jandrese 3y ago

I remember an analysis of the plate tectonics of Middle Earth and coming to the conclusion that it doesn't really work, but you can't blame Tolkien for this as the entire field of plate tectonics was invented a few years after he made the map.

labster 3y ago
I think it’s this one: https://www.tor.com/2017/08/01/tolkiens-map-and-the-messed-up-mountains-of-middle-earth/ https://www.tor.com/2017/08/01/tolkiens-map-and-the-messed-u... I just read it because I’m thinking about writing a crossover fanfic between Tolkien and Sailor Moon set at the end of the Fourth Age/Silver Millennium, and I need to figure out the geography. I’ve mainly settled on throwing out Tolkien’s map, drinking a long draught of Graham Hancock kool-aid, and setting the thing in the Younger Dryas. (The core conceit: Eärendil’s silmaril === Usagi’s silver crystal.)
- becquerel 3y ago
  I think it is your moral duty to write this fanfic.
  - labster 3y ago
    I have a very little bit written here, but it’s been a while. Other projects, of course, and I think I’m allowed to overthink on a Tolkien fic. http://www.accessdenied-rms.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=13894 http://www.accessdenied-rms.net/forums/showthread.php?tid=13...
- canjobear 3y ago
  The analysis neglects that the Misty Mountains were raised by Melkor to prevent the westward march of the Eldar.
shiroiuma 3y ago
I think you need to assume that Middle-Earth is set in a fantasy world where there are no plate tectonics. The world there isn't even spherical. It's a bit similar to the world in "Game of Thrones": that one too is a fantasy world that doesn't follow the regular laws of astrophysics, and doesn't even appear to be a planet at all.
- gpderetta 3y ago
  At the time of the third age Middle-Earth is indeed spherical. Eru explicitly changed it after the fall of Numenor, putting Valinor out of reach. It was flat before. The final war with Morgoth also destroyed a good chunk of western middle earth With such common and devastating divine interventions it is not surprising that plate tectonic is not a good predictor of geography :D. Note that Arda is supposed to be planet Earth , circa ~10000 years ago, but of course the geography only vaguely matches.

ffgjgf1 3y ago

> did not have historical populations in mind when deciding on settlement and army sizes. European populations were not at all static. There were many massive population declines more or less going back to the beginning of agriculture as far as we can tell https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_decline https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_decline Climate change, the plague (usually one accompanied the other) and to a much lesser extent warfare occasionally reduced populations on a regional scale by more than 70%. Often leaving large areas very sparsely inhabited or even abandoned. As dar as we know the last major plague in Middle Earth occurred almost 1400 years before the events described in the LOTR yet the populations never seemingly recovered in much of it. In contrast in Europe recovery took about 300-400 years. However we must take into account that the plague remained endemic and kept reoccurring regularly during those periods, which put a massive downwards pressure on population growth. From what we can tell human populations can grow at an extremely fast pace by premodern standards if resources are ample and climatic conditions are good. For instance according to some estimates the populations of medieval England and some other countries in Northern Europe might have almost tripled between the 1100s and the 1300s. In a completely empty place like Eriador that must have happened at an even faster rate (e.g. the British colonies in New England). After the collapse of the Northern kingdoms Bree supposedly thrived for centuries without any major calamities. That doesn’t make any sense though, assuming a couple of thousand people lived there initially with all the ample land a population of ~2000 would have increased to over 100k at a somewhat conservative growth rate of ~2% (and it’s unlikely that its initial population could’ve ever been that low considering all the refugees etc.). Something similar applies to the Shire as well. So overall I don’t think we can really apply real world demographics to middle earth. There certainly must have been some force/factor not directly described by Tolkien that kept growth rates very low.

shiroiuma 3y ago
>That doesn’t make any sense though, assuming a couple of thousand people lived there initially with all the ample land a population of ~2000 would have increased to over 100k at a somewhat conservative growth rate of ~2%... >So overall I don’t think we can really apply real world demographics to middle earth. There certainly must have been some force/factor not directly described by Tolkien that kept growth rates very low. Perhaps women in Tolkein's world are far less fertile than in our world (except for Samwise's wife). Or maybe they developed some effective contraception.

OscarCunningham 3y ago

I think one factor is that Tolkien had read a lot of actual classical and medieval literature. So he would know what felt right for a story even if he didn't know the historic and economic details.

veddox 3y ago

> Though I’ll admit Tolkien could be an outlier here. To quote a military historian‘s analysis: „ Tolkien’s first-person experience of war and his deep grounding in medieval and Anglo-Saxon literature means that – while Tolkien does not stop to discuss Aragorn’s tax policy – Middle Earth tends to fit within the ‘zone of the possible’ much more neatly than Westeros. Armies in Middle Earth move at normal speeds, the economic and population systems (and the human terrain with them) make sense, characters behave within the confines of religious belief and social custom, and so on.“ (https://acoup.blog/2019/10/06/new-acquisitions-how-fast-do-armies-move/ https://acoup.blog/2019/10/06/new-acquisitions-how-fast-do-a...)

jccooper 3y ago

Tolkien would have had at least a pretty good instinct for the feel of the post-Roman world as he was heavily exposed to primary sources... and lived in the turn-of-the-century English countryside, which would have still felt recognizably pre-modern. Many subsequent authors will have only seen modern or American or no countryside at all and get their impressions of "the middle ages" from a mostly-fictional cultural pastiche of Tolkien (who was really writing a Late Antique world), Dungeons and Dragons, Monty Python, etc. so it's no surprise their worlds are rather implausible.

veddox 3y ago
> who was really writing a Late Antique world I agree with all the rest of your comment, but I think this point is only partly correct. Gondor can be interpreted as Byzantinian (late Antiquity), but Rohan is rather Anglo-Saxon (early Middle Ages), and the Shire actually quite modern (18th-19th century England). Numenor of course is Atlantean (romanticised classical Antiquity), the Druadain are Stone/Bronze Age, and the Elves - are the Elves.
- hydrok9 3y ago
  someone else pointed out that “Rohan” was a noble house of Celtic Brittany, were horse lords, and traced ancestry to a “Meriadoc.”