4 ms·
The article mentions the 5000:1 odds bet, but reading the text of the bet itself is hilarious: >>> Whereas Carlo Rovelli and Geoff Penington firmly believe tha
by yathaid 3y ago
The article mentions the 5000:1 odds bet, but reading the text of the bet itself is hilarious:
>>> Whereas Carlo Rovelli and Geoff Penington firmly believe that gravity is better described by a quantum theory.
>>> And whereas Jonathan Oppenheim is more sympathetic to other possibilities (i.e. doesn’t have a clue) ...
[1] - https://www.ucl.ac.uk/oppenheim/pub/quantum_vs_classical_bet.pdf https://www.ucl.ac.uk/oppenheim/pub/quantum_vs_classical_bet...
- bilekas 3y ago> a small amount of olive oil, balsamic vinegar, or wine I think we can guess who write up the contract!
- DrBazza 3y agoCrisps though! > Should space-time be shown to be quantum, the loser will give to each of the winners, one ITEM* of their choice. If the alternative hypothesis is deemed to be correct, the losers will each give 5,000 ITEMS to the winner. > * ITEM is defined to be a object of the winner’s choice, worth no more than 20 British pence on January 21st, 2021. Examples include some crisps, a bazinga ball, a small amount of olive oil, balsamic vinegar, or wine
- denton-scratch 3y agoThe contract doesn't specify what kind of balsamic vinegar. Supermarket balsamic is just a mixture of colourings and flavourings. Proper solera balsamic is sipped as an aperitif, and is much too expensive for me to have ever tasted.
- GuB-42 3y agoIt doesn't say the amount either, just that each item must be worth less than 20 british pence. So it can be one drop of "Aceto Balsamico Tradizionale di Modena DOP", which is the real deal. Prices start at around 50€ for 100mL, but it can easily go into the 100s if you want the more premium ones (25 years). A single drop would fit the 20 pence bill.
- dash2 3y agoWhy not have both: salt 'n' vinegar flavour crisps?
- 3cats-in-a-coat 3y agoIt's heartwarming to see these people have fun while still sticking to serious work. Everything should be like that.
- bjornsing 3y agoInteresting that three so obviously intelligent people could get the odds of the bet wrong: it’s not a 1:5000 bet, it’s a 2:5000 bet a.k.a. a 1:2500 bet.
- jessriedel 3y agoI mean clearly if it's a mistake this is a matter of terminology not intelligence, but could you explain how it's wrong? If A wins, B pays A $1. If B wins, A pays B $N. For the bet to be fair (zero expectation value), the probability that A wins needs to be p=N/(N+1) and that B wins needs to be 1-p=1/(N+1). My understanding of what "odds" are is the ratio of the outcome probabilities: p:(1-p) = p/(1-p) = N/1 = N:1. (This is why the "log odds" are log(p/(1-p)).) Do they use a different notion of "odds" in sports gambling?
- bjornsing 3y agoTurns out the only interesting thing is how sloppy my reading is (and how quick I am to blame others for that sloppiness…). I simply missed the second “each” below: > Should space-time be shown to be quantum, the loser will give to each of the winners, one ITEM of their choice. If the alternative hypothesis is deemed to be correct, the losers will each give 5,000 ITEMS to the winner.
- seeknotfind 3y agoGiven this each, I'm surprised the headline isn't 10,000:1 bet. Also, who wants 10,000 <$20 items? It's a cool payout, but if I wanted to spend ~$200,000, I wouldn't do it in 10,000 pieces.