7 ms·

The Drums of War Are Growing Louder in South America

37 points by hackandthink 3y ago

vidanay 3y ago
As everyone knows, jungle warfare is SE Asia was a cluster-fuck. War in Amazonia is going to be 10x worse.
- ajross 3y ago
  That's not really comparable. Southeast Asia was an area of high population density engaged in a series of real and very deeply motivated civil wars. Vietnam (Cambodia too) was tearing itself apart entirely separate from the fact that global superpowers decided to use the nation as a proxy war. This is a dispute over an almost empty tract of land motivated by local politics in its neighbors (and potentially also over oil wealth, something that is new to Guyana in the last few years). Most likely nothing happens, but if it does the only larger power that's going to care much is Brazil. The US is more than capable of defending the relevant oil rights whether or not Guyana controls its western jungle.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    The US is part of it, but I'd imagine the UK Commonwealth getting a piece too, since Guyana is part of that. Canadians, the Black Watch, and Kiwis in the Jungle, etc.
ratsmack 3y ago
[flagged]
verdverm 3y ago
Maduro (Venezuela) sees what Putin is doing, and how the West is maybe half supporting Ukraine, and sees an opportunity to do the same to their neighbor (Guyana), expecting the West will probably do nothing. It's remarkably similar in "justification" because "we want this land we owned 100s of years ago back, forget about the prior agreements and the borders that have long been in place. tl;dr it's really about the oil, which does make it different from Putin trying to feel like a big man
- shmerl 3y ago
  Or Putin asked him to do it to further reduce aid for Ukarine from US. Basically - opening another front.
- sottol 3y ago
  Ukraine was to a degree also about oil/gas and cutting off a rising competitor with their new capabilities gearing up.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    eh kinda. Euromaidan happened because UKR voted in a Pro-EU, relatively anti-corruption (by UKR standards) candidate. Russia never invaded before because they basically called the shots via corruption and the mafiya. When it looked like he wasn't going to die from poison or riots and would stick around, "separatists" launched an effort to take the eastern part of the country, with a lot of industry, as well as Crimea -- a highly desired port for the Russian fleet. That kicked off a whole mess of EU and NATO assistance to UKR, so the recent war was to gobble up the rest of the country before it got too strong to resist. Turns out they took too long -- they probably would have won handedly in 2016, but in 2022 the AFU had been training and re-equipping, and realized what was at stake.
- FredPret 3y ago
  It's like a manufactured claim in Europa Universalis
- MilanTodorovic 3y ago
  I watched some analysis a while ago that stared that the war broke out to prevent Ukraine from tapping into some natural gas reserves that were uncovered at that time. Those reserves are located near Crimea. Sounds more plausible than pure ego.
  - pydry 3y ago
    That gas field isnt going to pay for even a small fraction of the cost of the war. It doesnt make any sense as a cause. The most plausible reason for the war is still the publicly stated reason: preventing NATO expansion to Ukraine.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
AlbertCory 3y ago
> China gets 36% of its food source from this region. Doubtful on that one.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  China grows about 2/3rds of its own food. It definitely doesn't get 100% of the rest from South America.
- philipov 3y ago
  Why do you doubt that? China's population is so large, even their ample farming capacity isn't enough to support it on its own. To whom do you think they turn to fill the deficit if not South America?
  - AlbertCory 3y ago
    see the next answer. Common sense tells you they grow more than 64% of their own food. And any imports would mainly come from other Asian countries or North America, not across the Panama Canal and 6,000 miles of ocean, Do you want to place a bet on this?
    - ricardobeat 3y ago
      When they talk about “this region” they’re bundling together the entire continent. Brazil exports massive amounts of soy and meat to China. https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/en/brazilian-agribusiness-news/china-raises-both-the-volume-imported-from-br-and-the-price-paid-for-the-brazilian-beef.aspx https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/en/brazilian-agribusiness-new...
    - yorwba 3y ago
      For both vegetable products https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/vegetable-products/reporter/chn https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/vegetable-pro... and meat & edible offal https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/meat-edible-offal/reporter/chn https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/meat-edible-o... South America is a more important source than North America.
CrzyLngPwd 3y ago
Which country did Victoria Nuland visit recently? Can the USA afford to supply weapons to another war until they finally pull the plug on Ukraine?
anikan_vader 3y ago
Venezuela’s (relatively sudden) refusal to honor its treaty obligations that admit the land is owned by Guyana is obviously due to oil greed. Guyana has almost no military, but the Venezuelan military doesn’t really have any offensive capabilities that the US cant easily deter. The US actually appears to be a stabilizing force in this case; if the US committed to non-intervention, it would make sense for Venezuela to invade immediately. As is, the strategic balance is not in favor of Venezuela attempting to annex the land by force.
- rpcope1 3y ago
  Guyana being part of the Commonwealth of Nations also seems like it may mean that the British could get involved on their side, which could also be a significant factor.
- waveBidder 3y ago
  This is what the much maligned "world's police" role the US military actually plays. It's a shame the NeoCons didn't understand the point of the threat is to never have to use it. the first gulf war didn't need a round two.
  - zdragnar 3y ago
    Round two was based on manufacturing a better ally in the region than the Saudis. After all, this was not too long after 9/11 and despite the lack of public attention, nobody was foolish enough to ignore the role of Saudi nationals in private. If, as a democracy, Iraq became what Iran could have been (until the revolution), our influence would have played a much stronger moderating force in the middle east. Instead, we discovered that democracies don't work when people don't want them to. It was a pipe dream that was doomed to fail from its inception. One unforced error lead to another, and that's a lesson that nobody ever seems to learn.
    - verdverm 3y ago
      > One unforced error lead to another, and that's a lesson that nobody ever seems to learn. As HR McMaster likes to say, "all wars are the result of a miscalculation"
seryoiupfurds 3y ago
"""Principled anti-imperialists""" love nothing more than jumping through rhetorical hoops to support naked imperialism by any brutal dictator who says "death to America!"
Gunax 3y ago
The history of the dispute is quite messy, and shows how these things never end. It involves miltiple treaties ratified and then disputed. I find the analysis particularly ridiculous. It of course blames the USA--a country which has never used military in the region, has no bases in guyana, and wasn't the colonial power that created this mess--as the instigator. Because America is to blame always. It's responsible for all actions it takes, but also responsible for not taking action when it should have.

37 points by hackandthink 3y ago

vidanay 3y ago

As everyone knows, jungle warfare is SE Asia was a cluster-fuck. War in Amazonia is going to be 10x worse.

ajross 3y ago
That's not really comparable. Southeast Asia was an area of high population density engaged in a series of real and very deeply motivated civil wars. Vietnam (Cambodia too) was tearing itself apart entirely separate from the fact that global superpowers decided to use the nation as a proxy war. This is a dispute over an almost empty tract of land motivated by local politics in its neighbors (and potentially also over oil wealth, something that is new to Guyana in the last few years). Most likely nothing happens, but if it does the only larger power that's going to care much is Brazil. The US is more than capable of defending the relevant oil rights whether or not Guyana controls its western jungle.
- red-iron-pine 3y ago
  The US is part of it, but I'd imagine the UK Commonwealth getting a piece too, since Guyana is part of that. Canadians, the Black Watch, and Kiwis in the Jungle, etc.

ratsmack 3y ago

[flagged]

verdverm 3y ago

Maduro (Venezuela) sees what Putin is doing, and how the West is maybe half supporting Ukraine, and sees an opportunity to do the same to their neighbor (Guyana), expecting the West will probably do nothing. It's remarkably similar in "justification" because "we want this land we owned 100s of years ago back, forget about the prior agreements and the borders that have long been in place. tl;dr it's really about the oil, which does make it different from Putin trying to feel like a big man

shmerl 3y ago
Or Putin asked him to do it to further reduce aid for Ukarine from US. Basically - opening another front.
sottol 3y ago
Ukraine was to a degree also about oil/gas and cutting off a rising competitor with their new capabilities gearing up.
- red-iron-pine 3y ago
  eh kinda. Euromaidan happened because UKR voted in a Pro-EU, relatively anti-corruption (by UKR standards) candidate. Russia never invaded before because they basically called the shots via corruption and the mafiya. When it looked like he wasn't going to die from poison or riots and would stick around, "separatists" launched an effort to take the eastern part of the country, with a lot of industry, as well as Crimea -- a highly desired port for the Russian fleet. That kicked off a whole mess of EU and NATO assistance to UKR, so the recent war was to gobble up the rest of the country before it got too strong to resist. Turns out they took too long -- they probably would have won handedly in 2016, but in 2022 the AFU had been training and re-equipping, and realized what was at stake.
FredPret 3y ago
It's like a manufactured claim in Europa Universalis
MilanTodorovic 3y ago
I watched some analysis a while ago that stared that the war broke out to prevent Ukraine from tapping into some natural gas reserves that were uncovered at that time. Those reserves are located near Crimea. Sounds more plausible than pure ego.
- pydry 3y ago
  That gas field isnt going to pay for even a small fraction of the cost of the war. It doesnt make any sense as a cause. The most plausible reason for the war is still the publicly stated reason: preventing NATO expansion to Ukraine.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

AlbertCory 3y ago

> China gets 36% of its food source from this region. Doubtful on that one.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
China grows about 2/3rds of its own food. It definitely doesn't get 100% of the rest from South America.
philipov 3y ago
Why do you doubt that? China's population is so large, even their ample farming capacity isn't enough to support it on its own. To whom do you think they turn to fill the deficit if not South America?
- AlbertCory 3y ago
  see the next answer. Common sense tells you they grow more than 64% of their own food. And any imports would mainly come from other Asian countries or North America, not across the Panama Canal and 6,000 miles of ocean, Do you want to place a bet on this?
  - ricardobeat 3y ago
    When they talk about “this region” they’re bundling together the entire continent. Brazil exports massive amounts of soy and meat to China. https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/en/brazilian-agribusiness-news/china-raises-both-the-volume-imported-from-br-and-the-price-paid-for-the-brazilian-beef.aspx https://www.cepea.esalq.usp.br/en/brazilian-agribusiness-new...
  - yorwba 3y ago
    For both vegetable products https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/vegetable-products/reporter/chn https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/vegetable-pro... and meat & edible offal https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/meat-edible-offal/reporter/chn https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/meat-edible-o... South America is a more important source than North America.

CrzyLngPwd 3y ago

Which country did Victoria Nuland visit recently? Can the USA afford to supply weapons to another war until they finally pull the plug on Ukraine?

anikan_vader 3y ago

Venezuela’s (relatively sudden) refusal to honor its treaty obligations that admit the land is owned by Guyana is obviously due to oil greed. Guyana has almost no military, but the Venezuelan military doesn’t really have any offensive capabilities that the US cant easily deter. The US actually appears to be a stabilizing force in this case; if the US committed to non-intervention, it would make sense for Venezuela to invade immediately. As is, the strategic balance is not in favor of Venezuela attempting to annex the land by force.

rpcope1 3y ago
Guyana being part of the Commonwealth of Nations also seems like it may mean that the British could get involved on their side, which could also be a significant factor.
waveBidder 3y ago
This is what the much maligned "world's police" role the US military actually plays. It's a shame the NeoCons didn't understand the point of the threat is to never have to use it. the first gulf war didn't need a round two.
- zdragnar 3y ago
  Round two was based on manufacturing a better ally in the region than the Saudis. After all, this was not too long after 9/11 and despite the lack of public attention, nobody was foolish enough to ignore the role of Saudi nationals in private. If, as a democracy, Iraq became what Iran could have been (until the revolution), our influence would have played a much stronger moderating force in the middle east. Instead, we discovered that democracies don't work when people don't want them to. It was a pipe dream that was doomed to fail from its inception. One unforced error lead to another, and that's a lesson that nobody ever seems to learn.
  - verdverm 3y ago
    > One unforced error lead to another, and that's a lesson that nobody ever seems to learn. As HR McMaster likes to say, "all wars are the result of a miscalculation"

seryoiupfurds 3y ago

"""Principled anti-imperialists""" love nothing more than jumping through rhetorical hoops to support naked imperialism by any brutal dictator who says "death to America!"

Gunax 3y ago

The history of the dispute is quite messy, and shows how these things never end. It involves miltiple treaties ratified and then disputed. I find the analysis particularly ridiculous. It of course blames the USA--a country which has never used military in the region, has no bases in guyana, and wasn't the colonial power that created this mess--as the instigator. Because America is to blame always. It's responsible for all actions it takes, but also responsible for not taking action when it should have.