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It's pretty nuts that so many industries directly or indirectly depend on ASML, and that they have no competition. How come companies like TSMC can't build the

It's pretty nuts that so many industries directly or indirectly depend on ASML, and that they have no competition. How come companies like TSMC can't build their own machines? Is there really only one company in the world that has the required skills? Or is it only because of patents and exclusivity agreements?

arethuza 3y ago
I suspect having close partnerships with the likes of Carl Zeiss AG who do the optics for the EUV machines will be part of it.
- amelius 3y ago
  Why wouldn't Zeiss want to profit from more clients?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - arethuza 3y ago
    I would suspect that they have exclusivity deals with ASML? Edit: It looks like the Carl Zeiss subsidiary that does the semiconductor manufacturing tech is part owned by ASML: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Zeiss_SMT https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Zeiss_SMT Edit2: Looks like ASML invested a billion Euros into Carl Zeiss SMT: https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2016/zeiss-and-asml-strengthen-partnership-for-next-generation-of-euv-lithography https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2016/zeiss-and-a...
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - kergonath 3y ago
      It’s like Apple and TSMC. At this scale, both benefit if a large customer helps funding its critical supplier’s technology and infrastructure developments. It’s a symbiotic relationship, both suffer if one has serious issues. On one hand it’s anti-competitive because it makes it more difficult for the customer’s competitors to use leading edge technologies; on the other those leading edge technologies would be much harder and take longer to develop without the customer’s contribution.
      - amelius 3y ago
        How much did Apple invest in TSMC? And how is it symbiotic if Zeiss can't take other customers?
        sjsdaiuasgdia 3y ago
        > And how is it symbiotic if Zeiss can't take other customers? Guaranteed revenue that doesn't need sales/marketing to keep going.
        verall 3y ago
        > How much did Apple invest in TSMC? A bunch, like more than a million dollars
        kergonath 3y ago
        It’s a specific part of Zeiss, it’s not like they bet the whole group on it. It’s symbiotic because they help ASML get better machines, which helps ASML get more money, a part of which is funnelled back to its suppliers. In the end it’s a risk assessment: what is the expected value if we get closer to a single partner, compared to trying for a broader market. Also, bear in mind that both sides have to keep the other working: the customer without suppliers is just as dead as the supplier without customers. So: they depend on each other, and they get more business and make more money by getting closer and have incentives to help the other improve (so it is not an adversarial relationship). Hence, symbiosis.
        janc_ 3y ago
        This part of Zeiss probably wouldn't exist without ASML, and maybe one day when next-gen tech is out tbe exclusivity might be lifted...
        whaleofatw2022 3y ago
        The symbiosis is often in legal but specific deals. And in the imaging and litho world surprising in the level of trust. For example, Sony actually makes a number of sensors for Nikon and other camera makers, despite having often competing products.
infecto 3y ago
I don't believe it has much to do with patents, though I suppose it helps. They have the talent, existing knowledge and the manufacturing capabilities to make it happen. One machine, which kind of looks like a CNC machine to me, can cost $200-400million IIRC. Another way to look at it, China would love to be able to copy their processes and has not yet been able to do so.
micwag 3y ago
There is definitely some patent, exclusivity agreements and protectionism going on. But the bigger factor is, that the semiconductor supply chain is very deep and development is VERY expensive and long. In addition to that there was a major switch from lenses to mirror in the lithography system, so everything is very new. I know of multiple suppliers down the supply chain which had to invest billions and had to wait 10 years before they even saw a penny. There is a reason why everybody else essentially gave up.
baybal2 3y ago
Lack of experience. Most of the West has bailed out of the electronics race so long ago, that the experience gap in between practice, and what is told in universities is like 20-30 years now. No university in the world will teach you how to make a modern stepper. Most of research in this space been going behind closed doors from the beginning of the semiconductor industry, and nearly completely closed since around 2010. Only places like IMEC and few others are semi-public windows to what happens behind closed doors. In principle, physics behind the operation of a stepper is nothing secret, components not secret, manufacturing techniques not secret, but the experience of how to arrange all of above in a way it is known to work is only available to, I would say, less than 100 people worldwide.
- verall 3y ago
  But we learned all about stepper motors in undergrad EE!
username_my1 3y ago
As far as I know it's also the only company in the world where the US goverment has a major stake in (25% I think). Good news is that China has delivered their 8mm lithography machines and are promising 3mm sometime in the next two years. maybe this will introduce more competion down the road
- arethuza 3y ago
  I don't see any listing for USG in their shareholders? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
- stephenitis 3y ago
  do you have a source to cite for this?
- st_goliath 3y ago
  > ... 8mm lithography machines and are promising 3mm sometime in the next two years. Wait what? I've soldered SMD parts smaller than that, I guess I could do 3mm lithography free-hand with a good razor blade. Sounds like I'd have a nice head-start in the "cutting-edge" field of sub-centimeter lithography.
  - maxfurman 3y ago
    I think GP means nm, not mm
- manuelabeledo 3y ago
  > Good news is that China has delivered their 8mm lithography machines and are promising 3mm sometime in the next two years. maybe this will introduce more competion down the road I have my doubts about this. SMIC is still struggling with 7nm, unable to deliver at scale. 3nm in two years sounds like a leap.
- MangoCoffee 3y ago
  >China has delivered their 8mm lithography machines Do you mean 28nm? https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinas-first-28nm-capable-scanner-to-be-delivered-by-end-of-2023 https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinas-first-28nm-capable-...
skrebbel 3y ago
It’s simply decades of R&D that no other company has done. Barring maybe Canon and Nikon but they’re pretty far behind. ASML machines are truly a marvel of engineering. And duct tape btw, but also engineering. There’s no fundamental reason other companies couldn’t compete. Simply invest tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of man-years and there you go, a second ASML.
- kvemkon 3y ago
  > It’s simply decades of R&D that no other company has done. ASML machines consist of at least two main parts: laser and lenses. Both has been engineered by third-party firms: TRUMPF (laser) and Carl Zeiss (lenses). > Simply invest tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of man-years and there you go, a second ASML. As it is often, you'd just need to know where to buy your start (remember MS DOS) and then you can invest a lot from your first revenues. Canon might come up with a good different solution (13.10.2023): - Canon, [], launches ASML challenge with machine to make the most advanced chips https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37870372 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37870372 - Canon Nanoimprint lithography semiconductor manufacturing system (5nm) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37894925 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37894925 - Canon Prepares Nanoimprint Lithography Tool to Challenge EUV Scanners https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37917587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37917587
  - brennanpeterson 3y ago
    The stage, the mirror/aberration control, and metrology (overlay/,reg and height/focus) are massive projects A fair case can be made that the twinscan concept is the key.
  - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
    >ASML machines consist of at least two main parts: laser and lenses. Both has been engineered by third-party firms: TRUMPF (laser) and Carl Zeiss (lenses). Correction: not lasers and lenses, but EUV light-source and mirrors. The TRUMPF laser in the EUV machines is nothing too special, but the Cymer EUV light source, consisting of blasting tin microdroplets at the right angles at speed, with said lasers, is the secret sauce. And mirrors are used instead, because lenses would absorb the EUV radiation.
kanzure 3y ago
ASML has extremely important infrastructure. I hear a lot about ASML having something that can't be replicated without billions and billions etc. But how much of this is propaganda? Is it really true that this is the only way to run the semiconductor industry? Open up their tech, and then we will know for sure. A million people would race to make this as cheap as possible.
- emptyfile 3y ago
  [dead]
emptyfile 3y ago
>How come companies like TSMC can't build their own machines? Why should they be able to? >Is there really only one company in the world that has the required skills? Yes, they invested for decades into R&D for EUV lithography. >Or is it only because of patents and exclusivity agreements? No, they have a multi billion dollar and decade long lead. It makes much more sense to try and pour money into a next generation manufacturing technology and work on it. Easier said then done.
next_xibalba 3y ago
What is most surprising to me is that Chinese companies have not yet successfully stolen the IP yet. Why is this? I guess the same is true with TSMC and its cutting edge chips. Do these companies just have better security, or is it the nature of the tech?
- yladiz 3y ago
  My guess is the latter. Some of the things that ASML makes are extremely challenging to manufacture, even if you know how to do it (certain pieces of the EUV systems), as well as things that come from other companies like the mirrors from Zeiss. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if China has some stolen IP, but I don’t think it would be that helpful given the above.
- audunw 3y ago
  As far as I know they never got a single machine. So they can’t easily reverse engineer it. They’re struggling already just to copy the previous generation DUV machines, and that’s while having a bunch of machines they can study and copy. A lot of technology you can’t really just copy it. You need the whole supply chain and expert support around it. Like with EUV they’d need someone like Zeiss to make the mirrors. Even the parts holding the mirrors are extremely niche and extremely hard to make. SMIC could copy older TSMC tech because they could buy the same machines and poach engineers from TSMC. That’s just not viable for EUV.
dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
I don't think you have any idea of how hard EUV was to pull off. They toiled for 20 years without guarantee of success. They managed to pull it off and now they own the bleeding edge process and will do for the foreseeable future. If someone wants to do the same, they can become competitors. It's not just a question of patents, they keep almost everything about these machines secret.
- smueller1234 3y ago
  Back in 2005 the researchers who worked on EUV lensing (mirrors, really) were very cynical and thought that it would never pan out. Coffee breaks were hilarious. It ultimately took a whole lot of time indeed.
- ahartmetz 3y ago
  It's kind of a miracle that no one at ASML made "the hard but necessary decision" to give up on EUV.
  - tonyhb 3y ago
    The research wasn't done by them — it was paid for by the US gov't and developed at US labs. ASML were given the research knowing that it could work.
    - _fizz_buzz_ 3y ago
      That is a bit of an oversimplification of what happened. A lot of basic research was done by US labs. But it took ASML almost 20 years to convert this research into a production ready system and nobody else succeeded. And they also got some big research grants from the EU[1] [1]https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/28160 https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/28160
      - janc_ 3y ago
        IIRC there is also some IMEC research in those ASML machines (which might also have been partially EU funded)?
Timshel 3y ago
If you want some insight on how complex and expensive latest lithographic process are check Asianometry on YT (ex: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SB8qIO6Ti_M https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SB8qIO6Ti_M)
pkaye 3y ago
The US government did a lot of EUV research through the 1990s via three national labs (Livermore, Berkeley and Sandia). Then when trying to commercialize it a consortium of US companies were involved. ASML, Canon and Nikon were also interested by only ASML was allowed in. Ultimately ASML acquired SVG and became the sole benefactor of this research at that time. ASML agreed to maintain US production and R&D as part of this. It also gives US some leverage to deny sales of that technology to China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithograph...
gosub100 3y ago
I want to add one word that is missing (but implied) in the many replies: light. It's that hard to make EUV Light in sufficient concentrations to burn wafers. If you could do that, you would be 85-90% of the way there.
dragonelite 3y ago
It all worked well pre tech war, east and west semiconductor studios were customers at TSMC and TSMC was a customer at ASML. Then the US started the tech war and the world started bifurcating somewhere in the middle term into a NATOstan and BRICS world.. The question should now be how fast can innovation happen with 2 or maybe even 3 supply lines instead of 1 global supply line for semi conductors.

arethuza 3y ago

I suspect having close partnerships with the likes of Carl Zeiss AG who do the optics for the EUV machines will be part of it.

amelius 3y ago
Why wouldn't Zeiss want to profit from more clients?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- arethuza 3y ago
  I would suspect that they have exclusivity deals with ASML? Edit: It looks like the Carl Zeiss subsidiary that does the semiconductor manufacturing tech is part owned by ASML: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Zeiss_SMT https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Zeiss_SMT Edit2: Looks like ASML invested a billion Euros into Carl Zeiss SMT: https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2016/zeiss-and-asml-strengthen-partnership-for-next-generation-of-euv-lithography https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2016/zeiss-and-a...
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - kergonath 3y ago
    It’s like Apple and TSMC. At this scale, both benefit if a large customer helps funding its critical supplier’s technology and infrastructure developments. It’s a symbiotic relationship, both suffer if one has serious issues. On one hand it’s anti-competitive because it makes it more difficult for the customer’s competitors to use leading edge technologies; on the other those leading edge technologies would be much harder and take longer to develop without the customer’s contribution.
    - amelius 3y ago
      How much did Apple invest in TSMC? And how is it symbiotic if Zeiss can't take other customers?
      - sjsdaiuasgdia 3y ago
        > And how is it symbiotic if Zeiss can't take other customers? Guaranteed revenue that doesn't need sales/marketing to keep going.
      - verall 3y ago
        > How much did Apple invest in TSMC? A bunch, like more than a million dollars
      - kergonath 3y ago
        It’s a specific part of Zeiss, it’s not like they bet the whole group on it. It’s symbiotic because they help ASML get better machines, which helps ASML get more money, a part of which is funnelled back to its suppliers. In the end it’s a risk assessment: what is the expected value if we get closer to a single partner, compared to trying for a broader market. Also, bear in mind that both sides have to keep the other working: the customer without suppliers is just as dead as the supplier without customers. So: they depend on each other, and they get more business and make more money by getting closer and have incentives to help the other improve (so it is not an adversarial relationship). Hence, symbiosis.
        janc_ 3y ago
        This part of Zeiss probably wouldn't exist without ASML, and maybe one day when next-gen tech is out tbe exclusivity might be lifted...
      - whaleofatw2022 3y ago
        The symbiosis is often in legal but specific deals. And in the imaging and litho world surprising in the level of trust. For example, Sony actually makes a number of sensors for Nikon and other camera makers, despite having often competing products.

infecto 3y ago

I don't believe it has much to do with patents, though I suppose it helps. They have the talent, existing knowledge and the manufacturing capabilities to make it happen. One machine, which kind of looks like a CNC machine to me, can cost $200-400million IIRC. Another way to look at it, China would love to be able to copy their processes and has not yet been able to do so.

micwag 3y ago

There is definitely some patent, exclusivity agreements and protectionism going on. But the bigger factor is, that the semiconductor supply chain is very deep and development is VERY expensive and long. In addition to that there was a major switch from lenses to mirror in the lithography system, so everything is very new. I know of multiple suppliers down the supply chain which had to invest billions and had to wait 10 years before they even saw a penny. There is a reason why everybody else essentially gave up.

baybal2 3y ago

Lack of experience. Most of the West has bailed out of the electronics race so long ago, that the experience gap in between practice, and what is told in universities is like 20-30 years now. No university in the world will teach you how to make a modern stepper. Most of research in this space been going behind closed doors from the beginning of the semiconductor industry, and nearly completely closed since around 2010. Only places like IMEC and few others are semi-public windows to what happens behind closed doors. In principle, physics behind the operation of a stepper is nothing secret, components not secret, manufacturing techniques not secret, but the experience of how to arrange all of above in a way it is known to work is only available to, I would say, less than 100 people worldwide.

verall 3y ago
But we learned all about stepper motors in undergrad EE!

username_my1 3y ago

As far as I know it's also the only company in the world where the US goverment has a major stake in (25% I think). Good news is that China has delivered their 8mm lithography machines and are promising 3mm sometime in the next two years. maybe this will introduce more competion down the road

arethuza 3y ago
I don't see any listing for USG in their shareholders? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
stephenitis 3y ago
do you have a source to cite for this?
st_goliath 3y ago
> ... 8mm lithography machines and are promising 3mm sometime in the next two years. Wait what? I've soldered SMD parts smaller than that, I guess I could do 3mm lithography free-hand with a good razor blade. Sounds like I'd have a nice head-start in the "cutting-edge" field of sub-centimeter lithography.
- maxfurman 3y ago
  I think GP means nm, not mm
manuelabeledo 3y ago
> Good news is that China has delivered their 8mm lithography machines and are promising 3mm sometime in the next two years. maybe this will introduce more competion down the road I have my doubts about this. SMIC is still struggling with 7nm, unable to deliver at scale. 3nm in two years sounds like a leap.
MangoCoffee 3y ago
>China has delivered their 8mm lithography machines Do you mean 28nm? https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinas-first-28nm-capable-scanner-to-be-delivered-by-end-of-2023 https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinas-first-28nm-capable-...

skrebbel 3y ago

It’s simply decades of R&D that no other company has done. Barring maybe Canon and Nikon but they’re pretty far behind. ASML machines are truly a marvel of engineering. And duct tape btw, but also engineering. There’s no fundamental reason other companies couldn’t compete. Simply invest tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of man-years and there you go, a second ASML.

kvemkon 3y ago
> It’s simply decades of R&D that no other company has done. ASML machines consist of at least two main parts: laser and lenses. Both has been engineered by third-party firms: TRUMPF (laser) and Carl Zeiss (lenses). > Simply invest tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of man-years and there you go, a second ASML. As it is often, you'd just need to know where to buy your start (remember MS DOS) and then you can invest a lot from your first revenues. Canon might come up with a good different solution (13.10.2023): - Canon, [], launches ASML challenge with machine to make the most advanced chips https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37870372 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37870372 - Canon Nanoimprint lithography semiconductor manufacturing system (5nm) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37894925 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37894925 - Canon Prepares Nanoimprint Lithography Tool to Challenge EUV Scanners https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37917587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37917587
- brennanpeterson 3y ago
  The stage, the mirror/aberration control, and metrology (overlay/,reg and height/focus) are massive projects A fair case can be made that the twinscan concept is the key.
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  >ASML machines consist of at least two main parts: laser and lenses. Both has been engineered by third-party firms: TRUMPF (laser) and Carl Zeiss (lenses). Correction: not lasers and lenses, but EUV light-source and mirrors. The TRUMPF laser in the EUV machines is nothing too special, but the Cymer EUV light source, consisting of blasting tin microdroplets at the right angles at speed, with said lasers, is the secret sauce. And mirrors are used instead, because lenses would absorb the EUV radiation.

kanzure 3y ago

ASML has extremely important infrastructure. I hear a lot about ASML having something that can't be replicated without billions and billions etc. But how much of this is propaganda? Is it really true that this is the only way to run the semiconductor industry? Open up their tech, and then we will know for sure. A million people would race to make this as cheap as possible.

emptyfile 3y ago
[dead]

emptyfile 3y ago

>How come companies like TSMC can't build their own machines? Why should they be able to? >Is there really only one company in the world that has the required skills? Yes, they invested for decades into R&D for EUV lithography. >Or is it only because of patents and exclusivity agreements? No, they have a multi billion dollar and decade long lead. It makes much more sense to try and pour money into a next generation manufacturing technology and work on it. Easier said then done.

next_xibalba 3y ago

What is most surprising to me is that Chinese companies have not yet successfully stolen the IP yet. Why is this? I guess the same is true with TSMC and its cutting edge chips. Do these companies just have better security, or is it the nature of the tech?

yladiz 3y ago
My guess is the latter. Some of the things that ASML makes are extremely challenging to manufacture, even if you know how to do it (certain pieces of the EUV systems), as well as things that come from other companies like the mirrors from Zeiss. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if China has some stolen IP, but I don’t think it would be that helpful given the above.
audunw 3y ago
As far as I know they never got a single machine. So they can’t easily reverse engineer it. They’re struggling already just to copy the previous generation DUV machines, and that’s while having a bunch of machines they can study and copy. A lot of technology you can’t really just copy it. You need the whole supply chain and expert support around it. Like with EUV they’d need someone like Zeiss to make the mirrors. Even the parts holding the mirrors are extremely niche and extremely hard to make. SMIC could copy older TSMC tech because they could buy the same machines and poach engineers from TSMC. That’s just not viable for EUV.

dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago

I don't think you have any idea of how hard EUV was to pull off. They toiled for 20 years without guarantee of success. They managed to pull it off and now they own the bleeding edge process and will do for the foreseeable future. If someone wants to do the same, they can become competitors. It's not just a question of patents, they keep almost everything about these machines secret.

smueller1234 3y ago
Back in 2005 the researchers who worked on EUV lensing (mirrors, really) were very cynical and thought that it would never pan out. Coffee breaks were hilarious. It ultimately took a whole lot of time indeed.
ahartmetz 3y ago
It's kind of a miracle that no one at ASML made "the hard but necessary decision" to give up on EUV.
- tonyhb 3y ago
  The research wasn't done by them — it was paid for by the US gov't and developed at US labs. ASML were given the research knowing that it could work.
  - _fizz_buzz_ 3y ago
    That is a bit of an oversimplification of what happened. A lot of basic research was done by US labs. But it took ASML almost 20 years to convert this research into a production ready system and nobody else succeeded. And they also got some big research grants from the EU[1] [1]https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/28160 https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/28160
    - janc_ 3y ago
      IIRC there is also some IMEC research in those ASML machines (which might also have been partially EU funded)?

Timshel 3y ago

If you want some insight on how complex and expensive latest lithographic process are check Asianometry on YT (ex: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SB8qIO6Ti_M https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SB8qIO6Ti_M)

pkaye 3y ago

The US government did a lot of EUV research through the 1990s via three national labs (Livermore, Berkeley and Sandia). Then when trying to commercialize it a consortium of US companies were involved. ASML, Canon and Nikon were also interested by only ASML was allowed in. Ultimately ASML acquired SVG and became the sole benefactor of this research at that time. ASML agreed to maintain US production and R&D as part of this. It also gives US some leverage to deny sales of that technology to China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithograph...

gosub100 3y ago

I want to add one word that is missing (but implied) in the many replies: light. It's that hard to make EUV Light in sufficient concentrations to burn wafers. If you could do that, you would be 85-90% of the way there.

dragonelite 3y ago

It all worked well pre tech war, east and west semiconductor studios were customers at TSMC and TSMC was a customer at ASML. Then the US started the tech war and the world started bifurcating somewhere in the middle term into a NATOstan and BRICS world.. The question should now be how fast can innovation happen with 2 or maybe even 3 supply lines instead of 1 global supply line for semi conductors.