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I'm certain you could build an embedding that provided a utility function for molecules based on price and synthesizability. That's an approximation of what th
by dekhn 3y ago
I'm certain you could build an embedding that provided a utility function for molecules based on price and synthesizability. That's an approximation of what the chemist's brain is doing.
You wouldn't ask a chemist to evaluate the molecules (in drug discovery), though- you'd have a molecular biologist (really a lab tech) set up a screening campaign, and in many cases, the biological readout that predicts something could work as a painkiller or oncology drug is relatively straightforward to implement experimentally at scale (high throughput screening). Unfortunately those readouts aren't super-predictive of the full biology, however.
I expect DeepMind or Isomorphic to announce, in the next five years, that they have made a model that can quickly identify whether a specific molecule would be likely to pass clinical trials and the rest of the FDA process. With a false negative rate ("predict that a drug would not get through to approval, but in reality it would have") below around 25%, we could easily save billions a year in failed drug costs.
- bglazer 3y agoI would be pretty surprised if Deepmind could automatically identify drugs that pass phase 3 trials in the next five years. First, there’s a banal point that many trials take years to read out, so any prospective study would have to be beginning about now. I don’t think Deepmind or anyone else can do what you describe currently. More importantly we just don’t understand human biology very well at all. Like there are phenomena that are critically important to drug and disease behavior that are just totally unknown. So machine learning systems trained on current knowledge just won’t have the necessary data. But I’ve been very surprised before by ML advances so who knows?