3 ms·

To be fair, exactly that level of investment in process and conservatism around change is arguably what led them all (literally every single Japanese manufactur

by ajross 3y ago

To be fair, exactly that level of investment in process and conservatism around change is arguably what led them all (literally every single Japanese manufacturer) to miss the boat on EVs. Basically, getting to your last sentence: you have the wrong threat model. Making "cars better" is great if what a "car" is doesn't change. But what the market wants is "better cars".

kspacewalk2 3y ago
I'd hold off on declaring that the EV boat has departed. It remains to be seen at what level EV uptake will plateau, without major advances in battery tech and EV practicality. Coming from a rather nippy Canadian city which bought a bunch of electric buses, fucked up badly[0] and probably made purchasing more electric buses an untenable proposition for (conservatively) 5-7 years, and having heard from multiple EV owners about the less glamorous aspects of EV ownership in Canada (charging cost/duration/convenience, battery performance in cold weather, skyrocketing insurance and repair costs)... The boat, far from being missed, is still in the dry dock. [0] https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/more-than-half-of-edmontons-60-million-electric-bus-fleet-not-roadworthy https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/more-than-half-o...
- ajross 3y ago
  Not interested in EV flamery. My point was economic: clearly EVs are a very large new market segment, and Japanese brands aren't competing there at all. That's bad, if your business is to sell cars. It's really bad if you have a sub-brand, like "Hybrids", which has been completely decimated by the (again very real, even if you don't think anyone in Edmonton should buy them) move to electric devices in the market. Basically: 8 years ago Toyota owned the "ecologically sensitive car buyer" market. And now you might as well flush the Prius brand in the toilet, no one wants them and selling them as "green" relative to a Tesla is a joke.
  - ericmay 3y ago
    I think I’m going with this as a car owner and buyer I would be very reluctant to switch back from an EV. It’s just for me so much nicer and more convenient. I have a few friends who share the same sentiment. It’s a category change and the Japanese automakers (to which I have great affinity) aren’t in the category so there’s nothing for me to buy from them.
  - nradov 3y ago
    Hybrid vehicle sales continue to grow. They have hardly been "decimated".
    - ajross 3y ago
      A quick google tells me Prius family sales were down 37% YoY in 2022. In point of fact that's a little over three "decimations". Not sure what you're citing, but I stand by what I wrote. The Prius brand went from market-leading to trash in the space of a few years as EVs, and Tesla in particular, took over mindshare.
      - nradov 3y ago
        You're just completely wrong. "Sales of Toyota’s conventional hybrids rose 41% from a year ago, to about 888,000, and sales of its plug-in hybrids were up nearly 90% year-over-year to roughly 39,000." https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/toyota-tm-q3-2023-earnings-guidance.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/toyota-tm-q3-2023-earnings-g...
        ajross 3y ago
        I said "Prius", and was correct. Toyota as a company is doing fine. Toyota is matching up very poorly with Tesla (and frankly even VW or Ford) in the markets where they compete with EVs.
        fomine3 3y ago
        Now there are many hybrids unlike when Prius sold well. Prius is now a brand for something weird cool hatchback hybrid car.
        ajross 3y ago
        Sure, but none that compete with an EV. Can you name a hybrid vehicle from any manufacturer that matches up with a Model 3 or Y that isn't shrinking rapidly in market share? I'm amazed that people are trying to argue this point. It seems extraordinarily clear just anecdotally (count all the new Teslas around you!), and the data backs it up.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
EnergyAmy 3y ago
Every single Japanese manufacturer? Nissan has been and is doing great with the Leaf. They discontinued recently, but only to replace it with a new EV, not because it was doing badly.
- TulliusCicero 3y ago
  No, they're not, not really. At least not in the US anyway. In Q3 this year, Nissan is in 10th place, with 6000 EV's sold: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and... If you look at numbers from a couple years ago compared to now, most of the other manufacturers are way up, whereas Nissan almost looks like they've already plateaued. Also, apparently the Leaf successor won't go into production until 2026? https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/what-we-know-nissan-leaf-ev-replacement/ https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/what-we-know-nissan-leaf-ev-r... That's crazy if true. What the hell has Nissan been doing?
  - EnergyAmy 3y ago
    I'll admit that "doing great" is open to interpretation, but my point is that Nissan hasn't "missed the boat" due to conservatism. They've had a nice, reliable EV available for a decade now, and you can go out and buy one today. Maybe they'll fall off the boat due to mistakes made now, but they've been on the boat for quite some time.
    - ajross 3y ago
      Having a nice reliable product available for sale while your competition rolls out superior products and not doing anything about it is pretty much the definition of "missing the boat due to conservatism", no?

by ajross 3y ago

kspacewalk2 3y ago

I'd hold off on declaring that the EV boat has departed. It remains to be seen at what level EV uptake will plateau, without major advances in battery tech and EV practicality. Coming from a rather nippy Canadian city which bought a bunch of electric buses, fucked up badly[0] and probably made purchasing more electric buses an untenable proposition for (conservatively) 5-7 years, and having heard from multiple EV owners about the less glamorous aspects of EV ownership in Canada (charging cost/duration/convenience, battery performance in cold weather, skyrocketing insurance and repair costs)... The boat, far from being missed, is still in the dry dock. [0] https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/more-than-half-of-edmontons-60-million-electric-bus-fleet-not-roadworthy https://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/more-than-half-o...

ajross 3y ago
Not interested in EV flamery. My point was economic: clearly EVs are a very large new market segment, and Japanese brands aren't competing there at all. That's bad, if your business is to sell cars. It's really bad if you have a sub-brand, like "Hybrids", which has been completely decimated by the (again very real, even if you don't think anyone in Edmonton should buy them) move to electric devices in the market. Basically: 8 years ago Toyota owned the "ecologically sensitive car buyer" market. And now you might as well flush the Prius brand in the toilet, no one wants them and selling them as "green" relative to a Tesla is a joke.
- ericmay 3y ago
  I think I’m going with this as a car owner and buyer I would be very reluctant to switch back from an EV. It’s just for me so much nicer and more convenient. I have a few friends who share the same sentiment. It’s a category change and the Japanese automakers (to which I have great affinity) aren’t in the category so there’s nothing for me to buy from them.
- nradov 3y ago
  Hybrid vehicle sales continue to grow. They have hardly been "decimated".
  - ajross 3y ago
    A quick google tells me Prius family sales were down 37% YoY in 2022. In point of fact that's a little over three "decimations". Not sure what you're citing, but I stand by what I wrote. The Prius brand went from market-leading to trash in the space of a few years as EVs, and Tesla in particular, took over mindshare.
    - nradov 3y ago
      You're just completely wrong. "Sales of Toyota’s conventional hybrids rose 41% from a year ago, to about 888,000, and sales of its plug-in hybrids were up nearly 90% year-over-year to roughly 39,000." https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/toyota-tm-q3-2023-earnings-guidance.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/toyota-tm-q3-2023-earnings-g...
      - ajross 3y ago
        I said "Prius", and was correct. Toyota as a company is doing fine. Toyota is matching up very poorly with Tesla (and frankly even VW or Ford) in the markets where they compete with EVs.
        fomine3 3y ago
        Now there are many hybrids unlike when Prius sold well. Prius is now a brand for something weird cool hatchback hybrid car.
        ajross 3y ago
        Sure, but none that compete with an EV. Can you name a hybrid vehicle from any manufacturer that matches up with a Model 3 or Y that isn't shrinking rapidly in market share? I'm amazed that people are trying to argue this point. It seems extraordinarily clear just anecdotally (count all the new Teslas around you!), and the data backs it up.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

EnergyAmy 3y ago

Every single Japanese manufacturer? Nissan has been and is doing great with the Leaf. They discontinued recently, but only to replace it with a new EV, not because it was doing badly.

TulliusCicero 3y ago
No, they're not, not really. At least not in the US anyway. In Q3 this year, Nissan is in 10th place, with 6000 EV's sold: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and... If you look at numbers from a couple years ago compared to now, most of the other manufacturers are way up, whereas Nissan almost looks like they've already plateaued. Also, apparently the Leaf successor won't go into production until 2026? https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/what-we-know-nissan-leaf-ev-replacement/ https://electrek.co/2023/05/19/what-we-know-nissan-leaf-ev-r... That's crazy if true. What the hell has Nissan been doing?
- EnergyAmy 3y ago
  I'll admit that "doing great" is open to interpretation, but my point is that Nissan hasn't "missed the boat" due to conservatism. They've had a nice, reliable EV available for a decade now, and you can go out and buy one today. Maybe they'll fall off the boat due to mistakes made now, but they've been on the boat for quite some time.
  - ajross 3y ago
    Having a nice reliable product available for sale while your competition rolls out superior products and not doing anything about it is pretty much the definition of "missing the boat due to conservatism", no?