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My guess is that this war’s lasting legacy may not be some geopolitical break after years of conflict but the images of the innocents we’ve seen, including chil

My guess is that this war’s lasting legacy may not be some geopolitical break after years of conflict but the images of the innocents we’ve seen, including children, killed in almost every imaginable way. I think this war will be seen as the beginning of the end for the western worlds support for Israel. The director of the ADL was recorded as saying: "The issue of the United States’ support of Israel is not left and right. It is young and old.”[1] It may take a few years or even a couple of decades but eventually there will be a viable US presidential candidate who is more tempted by the votes on the table than by the pro-Israel lobby. [1] https://justicereport.news/articles/2023/11/14/adl-director-blames-tiktok-and-gen-z-for-shocking-and-terrifying-support-of-hamas-in-leaked-phone-call/ https://justicereport.news/articles/2023/11/14/adl-director-...

AtlasBarfed 3y ago
Doubt it. I can see you have picked a side in this debate. In this case: Palestinians, or at least not-Israel. Warning, what follows is an everything-sucks-and-there-really-is-no-solution. Here are some basic facts as I understand about the long-term situation. First, how messed up is the Gaza strip? - Gaza is an open air prison that has no functioning economy and Israel controls all electricity, food, water, etc to a practical extent. It has no real jobs or industry, it survives on humanitarian aid from the UN and in particular Qatar. - To underscore that, Gaza really has no economy. They have no resources. Their population isn't particularly educated, they have no high-tech, they have zero relevance in the world economy. - Gaza is run by a terrorist group and is effectively a mafia state. Remember when I said no jobs? Welllll, actually the only jobs are with 1) the government (run by Hamas) or 2) as a terrorist... in Hamas. The only money that DOES flow into Gaza (of the legitimate sort) must flow through a government state, and Hamas maintains that grip with violence and intimidation. - Gaza was once run by Egypt for about 25 years in the latter part of the 20th century. They eventually said "no thanks" and handed it effectively back to Israel. They Egyptians HATE the Palestinians. This means, no immigration, no leaving Gaza through Egypt, no settling/expanding into Sinai. ZERO CHANCE. The Egyptians will let the Palestinians starve. - Gaza will not get any territory from Israel. That is not happening, not now, not ever. - Gaza has, over the last 75 years of becoming an open air prison and totally dependent on outside help, gone from 340,000 people in 1970 to about 1.5 million in 2010 or so and still growing. Keep in mind, this is an area with no real economy, no jobs, no trade, no means of self support. This isn't some Malthusian complaint. By going from 300,000 something to 1.5 million, the sheer scale of the problem is much greater. The threat the Gaza population poses is far greater. The amount of money that would be needed to fix Gaza is 500% greater. It basically guarantees they can't grow food for themselves, that there probably isn't enough water longer term. It basically is an unsustainable population for the area and region they live in. It makes EVERYTHING far worse. Basically, the largesse needed to modernize a country of 350,000 people is far different that the amount of political will/influence it takes to fund 4-5x more people. - to make things worst, the only real function Gaza has geopolitically to be a thorn in Israel's side. Currently, Iran is funding this because Israel is quietly aligning with Sunni Arab states (Saudis, etc) who are the blood enemies of the Shiites/Iranians. Thus the only other money that flows into Gaza is for proxy war, which ... goes through Hamas and cements them. This means there will NEVER be peace, because the only jobs in Gaza are Hamas foot soldiers, and the only money that really flows through is because Hamas keeps up the fight with Israel. - For the Palestinians, they have always survived because oil was important, and it provided money to the Arab world, and the Palestinians were a proxy to keep Israel in check. But oil will "soon" (in the geopolitical sense) NOT be important. EVs and alternative energy will vastly undercut demand in oil, and when the extra money stops to the arab states AND the rest of the world decides that paying attention to the Arabian peninsula they have no other use for is dumb, the money will run out for the Palestinians. - A bit longer term, Global Warming is heating up, and to survive it you need a functioning grid, a good economy (aka you need money). The Palestinians are in a prison, and it'll start getting hot. But in terms of predicted population movements/displacements from Global Warming, the Palestinians are small fry. - A separate state for Gaza with the current leadership and stated goals of destroying Israel is meaningless, and probably counterproductive. First off, it means Israel can cut off all water / electric / communications to Gaza as a hostile state. Then, when-not-if Gaza pops off rockets across the border AKA an Act of War, it isn't an interaction between a captive wards of Israel, this is Gaza-the-soverign-country vs Israel-the-sovereign-country who outguns them vastly and they can carpet bomb them. - "Pressure Israel for Peace" is just a bandaid on the current situation, and gets it to the previous state of "holy shit there is no solution". Israel is facing a demonstrated terrorist state, and has no reason to surrender territory, concessions, independence, or ANYTHING to Gaza. Not because I like Israel, it's simply historical fact. They would be colossally stupid to do so, and would only do it for vast sums of money. Gaza is their enemy, Palestinians are their enemy, and not in the European sense of "these two royal houses hate each other but they people are just peasants that want to work on the farms and don't care about the royal games". The Palestinians at the ground level hate Israel to a fundamental core, and unfortunately there's no way to undo that. - "Stop supporting them militarily" is also a fantasy. Even if you did, Israel is a fairly wealthy economy and trading partner. They are practically a member of NATO/EU. You think Israel would dry up without US aid? Look, what stops the extreme right of Israel, who have effectively controlled Israel since the failed Camp David talks of 2000, from carpet bombing the Palestinians in response to rocket bombing acts of war and possibly using nuclear weapons on Iran, is that we give them a lot of money. If we stop giving them money, their patience with the current stalemate ends and they explore a "final solution" and yes I know what that implies on all levels. Is there a non-final solution? Do you think the collective, young, ignorant, radicalized population will wake up one day in Gaza and realize "man, fighting Israel is pointless" to the point that Israel actually agrees they are peaceful and lets them build an economy? I would sooner believe in the old testament's wildest fantastical stories than that happening. Do you think that some country desperate for people allows a million plus Gazas to move to, say, Siberia, and that the Gazans would do it? I mean, uh, maybe? Seems pretty unlikely. Or what will probably happen, is that oil money dries up, so all the money to Gaza dries up, the Israelis refuse to help, the Egyptians refuse to help, so then they plead with the UN for enough assistance, but no one does anything besides token/publicity based support, and the (likely at this point 2-2.5 million people) Gazans starve en masse. Look, the UN is not a world government, the international court of justice is a joke. There is no group of nations with real influence that will do anything to Israel, it's a functioning Western government with a good economy. Nobody is messing with that, because it is good business.
- klooney 3y ago
  Listen, there's an easy solution for Gaza. They have a lot of people, and no space or freedom. Detroit has a ton of space, and lots of freedom. Let everyone move, give them a vote, and let 'er rip.
  - mikrotikker 3y ago
    Well the terrorist demand in the USA is outstripping supply...
- poisonarena 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
    Actually its not. Believe it or not, I just wrote that entire thing. Now granted, I've been writing that argument a lot in a lot of places, hoping SOMEONE would have a better idea. I've gotten zero response everywhere. I've also probably ingest a bit too much Zeihan or War Nerd, but honestly those are the sources that give the most honest geopolitical takes on the hard issues.
    - mda 3y ago
      [flagged]
      - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
        as the war nerd says, "sticks and stones will break my bones, but names will never hurt me"
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  Very good take. It seems clear to me that the status quo will remain for the far future until Israel eventually decides to enact their "final solution to the Palestinian problem" of mass expulsion/genocide/forced starvation which for all we know could take 1000 years.
phpisthebest 3y ago
[flagged]
- LAC-Tech 3y ago
  Sorry, I don't think this kind of fear mongering propaganda works anymore. Say what you will about the younger generation, but I think they can see through this idea that funding Israel somehow protects them from theocracy at home.
  - phpisthebest 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - ryandrake 3y ago
    There's a quote "Science progresses one funeral at a time" but it's also true for political progress too. We're never going to talk older people out of their political views, and unfortunately, we need to wait them out. The good news is that the demographics are undeniable--the popularity of their ideas will die with their generation, and we can finally move forward.
  - anon291 3y ago
    [flagged]
- parl_match 3y ago
  Israel is no longer some great vanguard against "Terror in the world". It is a strategically important ally, for sure, but its usefulness has been especially waning over the past 20 years. The behavior of the Israeli government and their military has been abhorrent, even in the wake of a horrible tragedy like 10/7. In line with that: The Israeli government and its supporters have become so accustomed to unwavering American support that they have started to take actions with a sense of ill-deserved impunity. The /tantrum/ that the Israeli government and the IDF threw has eroded good will all over the world. Based on its actions, recently and over decades, Israel is no longer seen as some unwavering force for good and right that it claims to be. The sooner Israel recognizes its increasingly precarious position of having unwavering western support, the better - both for itself, and the world.
qqtt 3y ago
This is assuming people's viewpoints don't evolve as they get older. “Celui qui n’est pas républicain à vingt ans fait douter de la générosité de son âme; mais celui qui, après trente ans, persévère, fait douter de la rectitude de son esprit.” A quick search shows the quote originating in the 19th century.
- LAC-Tech 3y ago
  I may offer myself as an example. As a young man I was generally pro-Israeli, I can remember a teacher in high school telling us about how great Israel was the morning after 9/11, how they fought all those wars against Arabs who hated them (for no reason at all), Moshe Dayan's cool eyepatch, etc etc. I'm 36 now, and things are different: - I know who Netanyahu is, and what he's said. - I know who AIPAC are, and what they've said. - I know who the ADL are, and what they've said. - I know how the British Mandate of Palestine ended Younger generations will be finding a lot more of what I learned a lot more quickly.
  - selestify 3y ago
    As a younger person than you, I moved from being vaguely pro-Palestinian in the past to being staunchly pro-Israel now that I have learned more about: - how Israel has repeatedly needed to fend off simultaneous attacks on its existence - what the rules of war actually are, and what counts as a war crime or not, and how restrained Israel has been in this regards - how Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are highly radicalized and even celebrated the 9/11 attacks on the very day of I’m not claiming to be representative of people my age. I’m simply providing a counter example to you, to show that “learning the facts a lot more quickly” can lead one to different conclusions. For me, I will unapologetically stand on what I perceive to be the side of civilization, against the forces of barbarism that we saw unleashed on 10/7. Others may perceive differently, or have different values. That’s fine, but it doesn’t make one perspective the obvious and objectively correct one.
  - anon291 3y ago
    [flagged]
  - 3y ago
galdosdi 3y ago
Whoa whoa whoa whoa. Why are you using justicereport.news as a source? I hadn't heard of it but after clicking through it a little it's clearly a fringe crazy spam site (objectively-- take a look at some of the articles) If this is worth discussing you can easily find a better source
- LAC-Tech 3y ago
  It was the first result when I searched for it. The original source is this: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/491344/American-youth-break-free-from-Zionist-yokes https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/491344/American-youth-break... Points for it being legitimate: - Congruent with what the ADL publish on their own website - recording sounds fine - ADL have not denied it Points for it not being legitimate - Heavy biased source - I'm not an audio engineer, so I only have an amateurs intuition of what sort of recordings sound real

AtlasBarfed 3y ago

Doubt it. I can see you have picked a side in this debate. In this case: Palestinians, or at least not-Israel. Warning, what follows is an everything-sucks-and-there-really-is-no-solution. Here are some basic facts as I understand about the long-term situation. First, how messed up is the Gaza strip? - Gaza is an open air prison that has no functioning economy and Israel controls all electricity, food, water, etc to a practical extent. It has no real jobs or industry, it survives on humanitarian aid from the UN and in particular Qatar. - To underscore that, Gaza really has no economy. They have no resources. Their population isn't particularly educated, they have no high-tech, they have zero relevance in the world economy. - Gaza is run by a terrorist group and is effectively a mafia state. Remember when I said no jobs? Welllll, actually the only jobs are with 1) the government (run by Hamas) or 2) as a terrorist... in Hamas. The only money that DOES flow into Gaza (of the legitimate sort) must flow through a government state, and Hamas maintains that grip with violence and intimidation. - Gaza was once run by Egypt for about 25 years in the latter part of the 20th century. They eventually said "no thanks" and handed it effectively back to Israel. They Egyptians HATE the Palestinians. This means, no immigration, no leaving Gaza through Egypt, no settling/expanding into Sinai. ZERO CHANCE. The Egyptians will let the Palestinians starve. - Gaza will not get any territory from Israel. That is not happening, not now, not ever. - Gaza has, over the last 75 years of becoming an open air prison and totally dependent on outside help, gone from 340,000 people in 1970 to about 1.5 million in 2010 or so and still growing. Keep in mind, this is an area with no real economy, no jobs, no trade, no means of self support. This isn't some Malthusian complaint. By going from 300,000 something to 1.5 million, the sheer scale of the problem is much greater. The threat the Gaza population poses is far greater. The amount of money that would be needed to fix Gaza is 500% greater. It basically guarantees they can't grow food for themselves, that there probably isn't enough water longer term. It basically is an unsustainable population for the area and region they live in. It makes EVERYTHING far worse. Basically, the largesse needed to modernize a country of 350,000 people is far different that the amount of political will/influence it takes to fund 4-5x more people. - to make things worst, the only real function Gaza has geopolitically to be a thorn in Israel's side. Currently, Iran is funding this because Israel is quietly aligning with Sunni Arab states (Saudis, etc) who are the blood enemies of the Shiites/Iranians. Thus the only other money that flows into Gaza is for proxy war, which ... goes through Hamas and cements them. This means there will NEVER be peace, because the only jobs in Gaza are Hamas foot soldiers, and the only money that really flows through is because Hamas keeps up the fight with Israel. - For the Palestinians, they have always survived because oil was important, and it provided money to the Arab world, and the Palestinians were a proxy to keep Israel in check. But oil will "soon" (in the geopolitical sense) NOT be important. EVs and alternative energy will vastly undercut demand in oil, and when the extra money stops to the arab states AND the rest of the world decides that paying attention to the Arabian peninsula they have no other use for is dumb, the money will run out for the Palestinians. - A bit longer term, Global Warming is heating up, and to survive it you need a functioning grid, a good economy (aka you need money). The Palestinians are in a prison, and it'll start getting hot. But in terms of predicted population movements/displacements from Global Warming, the Palestinians are small fry. - A separate state for Gaza with the current leadership and stated goals of destroying Israel is meaningless, and probably counterproductive. First off, it means Israel can cut off all water / electric / communications to Gaza as a hostile state. Then, when-not-if Gaza pops off rockets across the border AKA an Act of War, it isn't an interaction between a captive wards of Israel, this is Gaza-the-soverign-country vs Israel-the-sovereign-country who outguns them vastly and they can carpet bomb them. - "Pressure Israel for Peace" is just a bandaid on the current situation, and gets it to the previous state of "holy shit there is no solution". Israel is facing a demonstrated terrorist state, and has no reason to surrender territory, concessions, independence, or ANYTHING to Gaza. Not because I like Israel, it's simply historical fact. They would be colossally stupid to do so, and would only do it for vast sums of money. Gaza is their enemy, Palestinians are their enemy, and not in the European sense of "these two royal houses hate each other but they people are just peasants that want to work on the farms and don't care about the royal games". The Palestinians at the ground level hate Israel to a fundamental core, and unfortunately there's no way to undo that. - "Stop supporting them militarily" is also a fantasy. Even if you did, Israel is a fairly wealthy economy and trading partner. They are practically a member of NATO/EU. You think Israel would dry up without US aid? Look, what stops the extreme right of Israel, who have effectively controlled Israel since the failed Camp David talks of 2000, from carpet bombing the Palestinians in response to rocket bombing acts of war and possibly using nuclear weapons on Iran, is that we give them a lot of money. If we stop giving them money, their patience with the current stalemate ends and they explore a "final solution" and yes I know what that implies on all levels. Is there a non-final solution? Do you think the collective, young, ignorant, radicalized population will wake up one day in Gaza and realize "man, fighting Israel is pointless" to the point that Israel actually agrees they are peaceful and lets them build an economy? I would sooner believe in the old testament's wildest fantastical stories than that happening. Do you think that some country desperate for people allows a million plus Gazas to move to, say, Siberia, and that the Gazans would do it? I mean, uh, maybe? Seems pretty unlikely. Or what will probably happen, is that oil money dries up, so all the money to Gaza dries up, the Israelis refuse to help, the Egyptians refuse to help, so then they plead with the UN for enough assistance, but no one does anything besides token/publicity based support, and the (likely at this point 2-2.5 million people) Gazans starve en masse. Look, the UN is not a world government, the international court of justice is a joke. There is no group of nations with real influence that will do anything to Israel, it's a functioning Western government with a good economy. Nobody is messing with that, because it is good business.

klooney 3y ago
Listen, there's an easy solution for Gaza. They have a lot of people, and no space or freedom. Detroit has a ton of space, and lots of freedom. Let everyone move, give them a vote, and let 'er rip.
- mikrotikker 3y ago
  Well the terrorist demand in the USA is outstripping supply...
poisonarena 3y ago
[flagged]
- AtlasBarfed 3y ago
  Actually its not. Believe it or not, I just wrote that entire thing. Now granted, I've been writing that argument a lot in a lot of places, hoping SOMEONE would have a better idea. I've gotten zero response everywhere. I've also probably ingest a bit too much Zeihan or War Nerd, but honestly those are the sources that give the most honest geopolitical takes on the hard issues.
  - mda 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
      as the war nerd says, "sticks and stones will break my bones, but names will never hurt me"
HDThoreaun 3y ago
Very good take. It seems clear to me that the status quo will remain for the far future until Israel eventually decides to enact their "final solution to the Palestinian problem" of mass expulsion/genocide/forced starvation which for all we know could take 1000 years.

phpisthebest 3y ago

[flagged]

LAC-Tech 3y ago
Sorry, I don't think this kind of fear mongering propaganda works anymore. Say what you will about the younger generation, but I think they can see through this idea that funding Israel somehow protects them from theocracy at home.
- phpisthebest 3y ago
  [flagged]
- ryandrake 3y ago
  There's a quote "Science progresses one funeral at a time" but it's also true for political progress too. We're never going to talk older people out of their political views, and unfortunately, we need to wait them out. The good news is that the demographics are undeniable--the popularity of their ideas will die with their generation, and we can finally move forward.
- anon291 3y ago
  [flagged]
parl_match 3y ago
Israel is no longer some great vanguard against "Terror in the world". It is a strategically important ally, for sure, but its usefulness has been especially waning over the past 20 years. The behavior of the Israeli government and their military has been abhorrent, even in the wake of a horrible tragedy like 10/7. In line with that: The Israeli government and its supporters have become so accustomed to unwavering American support that they have started to take actions with a sense of ill-deserved impunity. The /tantrum/ that the Israeli government and the IDF threw has eroded good will all over the world. Based on its actions, recently and over decades, Israel is no longer seen as some unwavering force for good and right that it claims to be. The sooner Israel recognizes its increasingly precarious position of having unwavering western support, the better - both for itself, and the world.

qqtt 3y ago

This is assuming people's viewpoints don't evolve as they get older. “Celui qui n’est pas républicain à vingt ans fait douter de la générosité de son âme; mais celui qui, après trente ans, persévère, fait douter de la rectitude de son esprit.” A quick search shows the quote originating in the 19th century.

LAC-Tech 3y ago
I may offer myself as an example. As a young man I was generally pro-Israeli, I can remember a teacher in high school telling us about how great Israel was the morning after 9/11, how they fought all those wars against Arabs who hated them (for no reason at all), Moshe Dayan's cool eyepatch, etc etc. I'm 36 now, and things are different: - I know who Netanyahu is, and what he's said. - I know who AIPAC are, and what they've said. - I know who the ADL are, and what they've said. - I know how the British Mandate of Palestine ended Younger generations will be finding a lot more of what I learned a lot more quickly.
- selestify 3y ago
  As a younger person than you, I moved from being vaguely pro-Palestinian in the past to being staunchly pro-Israel now that I have learned more about: - how Israel has repeatedly needed to fend off simultaneous attacks on its existence - what the rules of war actually are, and what counts as a war crime or not, and how restrained Israel has been in this regards - how Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are highly radicalized and even celebrated the 9/11 attacks on the very day of I’m not claiming to be representative of people my age. I’m simply providing a counter example to you, to show that “learning the facts a lot more quickly” can lead one to different conclusions. For me, I will unapologetically stand on what I perceive to be the side of civilization, against the forces of barbarism that we saw unleashed on 10/7. Others may perceive differently, or have different values. That’s fine, but it doesn’t make one perspective the obvious and objectively correct one.
- anon291 3y ago
  [flagged]
- 3y ago

galdosdi 3y ago

Whoa whoa whoa whoa. Why are you using justicereport.news as a source? I hadn't heard of it but after clicking through it a little it's clearly a fringe crazy spam site (objectively-- take a look at some of the articles) If this is worth discussing you can easily find a better source

LAC-Tech 3y ago
It was the first result when I searched for it. The original source is this: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/491344/American-youth-break-free-from-Zionist-yokes https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/491344/American-youth-break... Points for it being legitimate: - Congruent with what the ADL publish on their own website - recording sounds fine - ADL have not denied it Points for it not being legitimate - Heavy biased source - I'm not an audio engineer, so I only have an amateurs intuition of what sort of recordings sound real