5 ms·

Everybody should read his speech, "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment": https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/ https://fs.blog/great-talks/p

by alexb_ 3y ago

Everybody should read his speech, "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment": https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/ https://fs.blog/great-talks/psychology-human-misjudgment/ It's a fantastic read that can really help you understand why supposedly rational masses of people can end up being so wrong. In the tech world, it ends up being more relevant than one would like it to be.

mdp2021 3y ago
That linked is the revised version A transcript of the original speech at Harvard, June 1995, should be e.g. at https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/psychology-of-human-misjudgment-by-charlie-munger https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/psychology-of-human-mi... A recording of the original speech is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7sLrON7QY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7sLrON7QY
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- Almondsetat 3y ago
  The funny thing is that since this guy died at 99yo it means that 30 years ago he was still an old 70yo man. Screws with my brain sometimes
  - schnebbau 3y ago
    30 years ago I was in diapers and barely aware of what was going on around me. This old man was still an old man. Youth really is fleeting.
    - jpmattia 3y ago
      > Youth really is fleeting. So is all of life. Signed, a 60 year old
    - noonething 3y ago
      and wasted on the young...
  - joshspankit 3y ago
    My brain says 30 years ago was the 70s
    - Clubber 3y ago
      If I still wrote checks, I'd struggle with the 19xx/20xx on the date. As an aside, it does aggravate me that so many companies have reverted back to the 2 digit year after going through so much Y2K refactoring.
- alexb_ 3y ago
  It was revised and updated by Munger - it's better than the original because it has more experience and information. The old one is fine too, but is harder to read and a bit more dated.
  - mdp2021 3y ago
    Others will find the speech (transcript) more direct.
- nojito 3y ago
  Much better version here http://www-personal.umich.edu/~venky/teach/Munger-misjudgment.pdf http://www-personal.umich.edu/~venky/teach/Munger-misjudgmen...
garlandkey 3y ago
Wow, what a fantastic read. Thanks for sharing that! Now I'm questioning the foundation of my career. :-S
pratikshelar871 3y ago
Once you start observing the biases he has mentioned in the talk, you realise how vulnurable you are as a human to be co erced into making decisions which could be so wrong.
rugger 3y ago
[flagged]
- ssd532 3y ago
  Don’t know why but I am unable to make sense of anything from that summary. Will try the original long form content.
  - notimewaste 3y ago
    yeah, thats why prefer making own notes
- dilawar 3y ago
  Summary by Kagi Universal Summarizer Human judgment is often flawed due to various psychological biases and tendencies hardwired in our brains through evolution, such as incentive-caused bias, consistency and commitment bias, and deprivation super reaction syndrome. Figures like B.F. Skinner and Ivan Pavlov conducted important experiments demonstrating how reinforcement and conditioning shape human and animal behavior. Marketing, advertising, and product design frequently exploit psychological tendencies like contrast effects, reciprocity bias, and social proof to influence consumer choices. Board of directors are often ineffective at reining in CEOs due to psychological factors like commitment to prior decisions and not wanting to undermine authority figures. Understanding psychological tendencies can help avoid being manipulated and make better decisions by considering disconfirming evidence and alternatives objectively. Applying insights from psychology and economics together gives a more holistic view of human decision-making than either field alone. Education should teach about these psychological tendencies so people can recognize their own biases and make more informed judgments. Case studies of companies like Coca-Cola and mistakes of leaders like John Gutfreund demonstrate impacts of psychological factors consequentially. Figures like Charles Darwin and Sam Walton applied self-awareness of psychological tendencies to achieve remarkable success and wisdom. Secretive conventions and forcing priority on difficult tasks can help overcome natural human biases revealed through experiments.
- TerrifiedMouse 3y ago
sega_sai 3y ago
Thank you for the link, it is an interesting read, and has a lot of funny quotes, stories and some interesting ideas. In the beginning I felt it was insightful, but by the end of the read I felt it was just a bunch of opinions based on personal anecdotes. (disclaimer -- I'm obviously much less wealthy and successful than Munger)
photochemsyn 3y ago
That's referenced in this interesting blog post with some Munger quotes from ~10 years ago. For context Munger appears to have been centrally involved with Berkshire's various energy plays and investor-owned utility deals (a major fraction of their portfolio). https://fs.blog/energy-independence-is-a-terribly-stupid-idea/ https://fs.blog/energy-independence-is-a-terribly-stupid-ide... > "… running out of hydrocarbons is like running out of civilization. All this trade, all these drugs, fertilizers, fungicides, etc. … which China needs to eat with a population so much, they all come from hydrocarbons. And it is not at all clear that there is any substitute. > "When the hydrocarbons are gone, I don’t think the chemists will be able to simply mix up a vat and there will be more hydrocarbons. It’s conceivable, of course, that they could but it’s not the way to bet." That's in the context of his arguments about for ignoring any calls for 'energy independence' because it's better to preserve domestic resources for future emergencies.

by alexb_ 3y ago

mdp2021 3y ago

That linked is the revised version A transcript of the original speech at Harvard, June 1995, should be e.g. at https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/psychology-of-human-misjudgment-by-charlie-munger https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/psychology-of-human-mi... A recording of the original speech is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7sLrON7QY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jv7sLrON7QY

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Almondsetat 3y ago
The funny thing is that since this guy died at 99yo it means that 30 years ago he was still an old 70yo man. Screws with my brain sometimes
- schnebbau 3y ago
  30 years ago I was in diapers and barely aware of what was going on around me. This old man was still an old man. Youth really is fleeting.
  - jpmattia 3y ago
    > Youth really is fleeting. So is all of life. Signed, a 60 year old
  - noonething 3y ago
    and wasted on the young...
- joshspankit 3y ago
  My brain says 30 years ago was the 70s
  - Clubber 3y ago
    If I still wrote checks, I'd struggle with the 19xx/20xx on the date. As an aside, it does aggravate me that so many companies have reverted back to the 2 digit year after going through so much Y2K refactoring.
alexb_ 3y ago
It was revised and updated by Munger - it's better than the original because it has more experience and information. The old one is fine too, but is harder to read and a bit more dated.
- mdp2021 3y ago
  Others will find the speech (transcript) more direct.
nojito 3y ago
Much better version here http://www-personal.umich.edu/~venky/teach/Munger-misjudgment.pdf http://www-personal.umich.edu/~venky/teach/Munger-misjudgmen...

garlandkey 3y ago

Wow, what a fantastic read. Thanks for sharing that! Now I'm questioning the foundation of my career. :-S

pratikshelar871 3y ago

Once you start observing the biases he has mentioned in the talk, you realise how vulnurable you are as a human to be co erced into making decisions which could be so wrong.

rugger 3y ago

[flagged]

ssd532 3y ago
Don’t know why but I am unable to make sense of anything from that summary. Will try the original long form content.
- notimewaste 3y ago
  yeah, thats why prefer making own notes
dilawar 3y ago
Summary by Kagi Universal Summarizer Human judgment is often flawed due to various psychological biases and tendencies hardwired in our brains through evolution, such as incentive-caused bias, consistency and commitment bias, and deprivation super reaction syndrome. Figures like B.F. Skinner and Ivan Pavlov conducted important experiments demonstrating how reinforcement and conditioning shape human and animal behavior. Marketing, advertising, and product design frequently exploit psychological tendencies like contrast effects, reciprocity bias, and social proof to influence consumer choices. Board of directors are often ineffective at reining in CEOs due to psychological factors like commitment to prior decisions and not wanting to undermine authority figures. Understanding psychological tendencies can help avoid being manipulated and make better decisions by considering disconfirming evidence and alternatives objectively. Applying insights from psychology and economics together gives a more holistic view of human decision-making than either field alone. Education should teach about these psychological tendencies so people can recognize their own biases and make more informed judgments. Case studies of companies like Coca-Cola and mistakes of leaders like John Gutfreund demonstrate impacts of psychological factors consequentially. Figures like Charles Darwin and Sam Walton applied self-awareness of psychological tendencies to achieve remarkable success and wisdom. Secretive conventions and forcing priority on difficult tasks can help overcome natural human biases revealed through experiments.
TerrifiedMouse 3y ago

sega_sai 3y ago

Thank you for the link, it is an interesting read, and has a lot of funny quotes, stories and some interesting ideas. In the beginning I felt it was insightful, but by the end of the read I felt it was just a bunch of opinions based on personal anecdotes. (disclaimer -- I'm obviously much less wealthy and successful than Munger)

photochemsyn 3y ago

That's referenced in this interesting blog post with some Munger quotes from ~10 years ago. For context Munger appears to have been centrally involved with Berkshire's various energy plays and investor-owned utility deals (a major fraction of their portfolio). https://fs.blog/energy-independence-is-a-terribly-stupid-idea/ https://fs.blog/energy-independence-is-a-terribly-stupid-ide... > "… running out of hydrocarbons is like running out of civilization. All this trade, all these drugs, fertilizers, fungicides, etc. … which China needs to eat with a population so much, they all come from hydrocarbons. And it is not at all clear that there is any substitute. > "When the hydrocarbons are gone, I don’t think the chemists will be able to simply mix up a vat and there will be more hydrocarbons. It’s conceivable, of course, that they could but it’s not the way to bet." That's in the context of his arguments about for ignoring any calls for 'energy independence' because it's better to preserve domestic resources for future emergencies.