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I dunno all this talk about OpenAI lately really feels more and more like hype to me. What they've accomplished so far is really impressive. But until I see AG
by lordfrito 3y ago
I dunno all this talk about OpenAI lately really feels more and more like hype to me.
What they've accomplished so far is really impressive. But until I see AGI for real I won't hold my breath.
Just feels to me like some expert/wizard level PR is going on right now.
- zyang 3y agoIt feels more like spin to distract people from the insane board coup drama.
- liquidpele 3y agoThat’s just what the AGI wants you to think.
- ratg13 3y agoNobody respectable has said that AGI will be achieved in the next 5 or even 500 years.
- sschueller 3y agoSadly a large part of the public believes it will happen and is all in. To the average person chatGPT is literally magic.
- _heimdall 3y agoEliezer Yudkowsky should be respected in the field of AI. Agree or disagree with his level of concern over AI risk, he has made fairly accurate predictions so far. Last I heard, he was predicting that we could be as little as 10-15 years from the level of AI development that he considers to be an extinctions level risk. Again, there's plenty of different conclusions that can be made on the risk levels but that doesn't change his expectation on timing of development.
- yowlingcat 3y agoNo one should respect that blowhard. Please point me to the specifically accurate predictions he has made so far.
- voitvoder 3y agoAre you saying statements like "...and then AI takes over the whole galaxy and comes back to eats us!" doesn't sound rational? He is basically the next generation's Ray Kurzweil but instead of AI granting us biological immortality now AI is going to cause mass extinction. Instead of uploading consciousness to some digital nirvana we get the slightest variation on The Matrix. "And then it takes over the galaxy and uses the atoms in our bodies for batteries!!" With the way AI captures the imagination we can't but help take things to irrational extremes.
- _heimdall 3y agoEliezer made early predictions that we would solve the protein folding problem when effectively everyone else said we either wouldn't solve it or it was way off. If I remember right he was making those claims around 2005 or so and predicting wed have it solved in something like 30 years. We solved it in 2017.
- _heimdall 3y agoFor more context, Eliezer does himself a disservice focusing so hard on examples of how things could go horribly wrong but I haven't heard any compelling arguments against his core points. From everything I've seen from him, his concerns revolve around (1) a lack of a bounding function for the development of AI (2) a view that the alignment problem is unsolvable and (3) the risk that we won't recognize an AI was developed until it is sufficiently more intelligent than us to pose a fundamental risk.
- staticman2 3y agoIf your prediction is "A.I. is similar to magic and can do anything and will become a god" you would of course think it can solve the protein folding problem... I'm not exactly sure that leads to the conclusion his track record is great. (There are many more things A.I. can't do than can do, I would think?)
- deelowe 3y agoIf agi is possible, whomever creates it is going to do their damnest to make sure no one else finds out for as long as possible.
- nojvek 3y agoAGI is very possible. ASI (artificial super intelligence) is gonna come pretty quick after AGI. The question is when and who will distribute it widely to everyone. When we have AGI, we will find it out pretty quickly since whoever gets there first wants the most money and control they can.