7 ms·

SpaceX plans to sell shares next month at $150B valuation

43 points by ironyman 3y ago

antfie 3y ago
The last rocket blew up and now they need more money to build another?
- ben_w 3y ago
  Even if it hadn't blown up, it would've been destroyed as part of the flight plan. Just by high-speed impact with the water in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Hawaii rather than by flight termination system.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- joefourier 3y ago
  This is why it’s a good thing it’s staying private, public investors would focus only on the high profile explosions of a test vehicle rather than on the fact that SpaceX has a 99.3% mission success rate, the record for the most launches in a year, the only company to have reusable first stage in use, and the only way for American astronauts to reach orbit in the current geopolitical climate, all of this at a fraction of the cost of competitors.
- pixl97 3y ago
  This is why governments don't build rockets any more. "Experimental test rocket blew up", yea, they tend to do that.
  - carabiner 3y ago
    People pretending "move fast and break things" is a given in this field. SLS first launched in 2022 and not only reached space but flew around the moon and dropped off some satellites. Very first launch, no giant explosions. Don't get me wrong, SpaceX is incredible and will figure this out, but it's not at all obvious their approach to making a giant rocket is faster or more efficient than what the conventional players have done in the past. Each step, reaching orbit, the moon, Mars, is huge step that comes with new challenges.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - tgsovlerkhgsel 3y ago
      With SLS having a cost per kg to orbit about 10x that of Falcon Heavy, this isn't particularly convincing evidence that "move fast and break things" is the wrong approach though. And Starship promises another 10x (_after_ already applying a 3x "Musk exaggerating multiplier") improvement.
    - pixl97 3y ago
      And how many billions of dollars did that single SLS rocket cost. How much will the one after that cost? And the one after that, wait, they aren't building but a few at a few billion each. The giant rockets before then were built with a percentage of the national GDP. At the end of the day spaceX will come in way cheaper per rocket in total and it will be reusable.
- mr_toad 3y ago
  They have seven boosters under construction, three of which are already undergoing engine installation. If they need more money it’s for more than just one more rocket.
- ren_engineer 3y ago
  it's a tender offer, more likely the purpose is to allow employees to cash out some of their shares without having to IPO
epolanski 3y ago
How can it be a good idea to have such an important company to national security public? Last thing you want is funds having their say on how to run the company. Didn't work well with Boeing either.
- daniel_iversen 3y ago
  Isn't the privatised version called NASA? And they stopped doing a few things deliberately because they couldn't compete. And we don't know what the voting structure will be so it might not be "funds having their say" in a big way, right?
  - badcppdev 3y ago
    Can you enlighten me about when NASA stopped doing things? I got the impression that NASA has 'always' used companies to build things for them. I'm quite cynical so I assume it's always been an tax->government->industry funding process.
    - daniel_iversen 3y ago
      I'm not American but it was my impression they stopped the space shuttle program for so long because it wasn't cost effective and they instead partnered with private enterprises for those use cases?
      - inemesitaffia 3y ago
        NASA has always paid someone for launch. In the past they owned the IP. Now they don't. They have their own rocket and it costs only 2 billion dollars to launch
- ben_w 3y ago
  The alternative is to leave it all in the hands of the existing private shareholders, which… well, regardless of your opinion on literally anything else he does, how much do you trust Musk on matters of national security?
mdorazio 3y ago
Title is somewhat misleading since this would be another tender offer to select investors, not a public offering. Which is disappointing to me since I'd really like to buy some shares myself. Starlink is perhaps overvalued, but their primary launch business is so far ahead of the competition already that it's kind of ridiculous. With the progress of Starship, I'm expecting another massive step ahead of everyone else within the next 3 years, which would in turn expand the launch market itself to people who couldn't afford it before.
- charlie0 3y ago
  Don't worry, you'll get a chance to buy in once all the private investors have made their killing.
  - thrill 3y ago
    Thank you SEC.
    - asylteltine 3y ago
      And in case people don’t know, this is referring to an accredited investor which is a government enforced way for the rich to get richer.
      - imetatroll 3y ago
        Well they try to justify it by saying that we unwashed masses don't have enough savvy to be investing.
        mikeyouse 3y ago
        Have you browsed through the Wall St Bets subreddit? Not that pre-IPO investing is any more reckless than throwing away money on naked options, but it gives a good sense for the savviness of the average investor.
        3y ago
JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
I will never get people who have never been in the wild salivating at the idea of having 500Mbit broadband while in the wild. That's overkill in a city, let alone while you are busy enjoying Nature. I mean this company is solely based on this idea of bringing broadband to the wild, because if God forbid any ICBMs are ever launched they'd be launched all at once so even if the booster makes it back thanks to SpaceX tech the US/NATO would have no MIRVs to re-load. My infrastructure bet is on 5G and fiber to dominate connectivity, however my poker mind would love to scoop some SpaceX shares to offload to bigger fools down the road, for some reason people have this weird fetish about Space irregardless of practical applications. Ever since the Apollo days.
- stcredzero 3y ago
  I will never get people who have never been in the wild salivating at the idea of having broadband while in the wild. 1) This isn't just for people, "in the wild." If you're just rural enough to not have broadband, Starlink is one of your best options. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn_prpVDMRo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn_prpVDMRo This is going to be a huge boon for the 3rd world! Also note how much of a benefit it was to Ukraine. (And no, Elon Musk didn't cut off bandwidth from Ukraine. That's demonstrably false media spin.) 2) If you've ever felt screwed by your broadband ISP, but had no other choice -- know that this still happens to people in 2023. My infrastructure bet is on 5G and fiber to dominate connectivity, however my poker mind would love to scoop some SpaceX shares to offload to bigger fools down the road. Folks like Jim Chanos have lost billions betting against Elon. And lots of people have made their fortunes taking him at face value. (I'm one!)
  - chasd00 3y ago
    > Folks like Jim Chanos have lost billions betting against Elon. Yeah like him or not there’s much easier money to be made than betting on Musk’s failure.
    - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
      > > Yeah like him or not there’s much easier money to be made than betting on Musk’s failure. The infrastructure part of my portfolio is not betting on Musk failure but on 5G and Fiber success, which is a given considering that regardless of what the cultists say the majority of people live in urban areas and the % is only increasing. Lagos will be 100M by 2065 and VERY dense, fiber cable and 5G towers with a 5mi range makes way more sense at such population densities than 20,000 km back and forth with a dish . Also developing countries have a huge problem because Sat Dish get stolen by thugs, but of course the cultists sending 50k deposits for cars that will never be built they never had to deal with poverty nor thugs. Lacking skepticism and antibodies to salesmen they represnt the perfect target for predators.
nektro 3y ago
LOL, the idea that anything elon's touched could be worth $150B...

43 points by ironyman 3y ago

antfie 3y ago

The last rocket blew up and now they need more money to build another?

ben_w 3y ago
Even if it hadn't blown up, it would've been destroyed as part of the flight plan. Just by high-speed impact with the water in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Hawaii rather than by flight termination system.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
joefourier 3y ago
This is why it’s a good thing it’s staying private, public investors would focus only on the high profile explosions of a test vehicle rather than on the fact that SpaceX has a 99.3% mission success rate, the record for the most launches in a year, the only company to have reusable first stage in use, and the only way for American astronauts to reach orbit in the current geopolitical climate, all of this at a fraction of the cost of competitors.
pixl97 3y ago
This is why governments don't build rockets any more. "Experimental test rocket blew up", yea, they tend to do that.
- carabiner 3y ago
  People pretending "move fast and break things" is a given in this field. SLS first launched in 2022 and not only reached space but flew around the moon and dropped off some satellites. Very first launch, no giant explosions. Don't get me wrong, SpaceX is incredible and will figure this out, but it's not at all obvious their approach to making a giant rocket is faster or more efficient than what the conventional players have done in the past. Each step, reaching orbit, the moon, Mars, is huge step that comes with new challenges.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - tgsovlerkhgsel 3y ago
    With SLS having a cost per kg to orbit about 10x that of Falcon Heavy, this isn't particularly convincing evidence that "move fast and break things" is the wrong approach though. And Starship promises another 10x (_after_ already applying a 3x "Musk exaggerating multiplier") improvement.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    And how many billions of dollars did that single SLS rocket cost. How much will the one after that cost? And the one after that, wait, they aren't building but a few at a few billion each. The giant rockets before then were built with a percentage of the national GDP. At the end of the day spaceX will come in way cheaper per rocket in total and it will be reusable.
mr_toad 3y ago
They have seven boosters under construction, three of which are already undergoing engine installation. If they need more money it’s for more than just one more rocket.
ren_engineer 3y ago
it's a tender offer, more likely the purpose is to allow employees to cash out some of their shares without having to IPO

epolanski 3y ago

How can it be a good idea to have such an important company to national security public? Last thing you want is funds having their say on how to run the company. Didn't work well with Boeing either.

daniel_iversen 3y ago
Isn't the privatised version called NASA? And they stopped doing a few things deliberately because they couldn't compete. And we don't know what the voting structure will be so it might not be "funds having their say" in a big way, right?
- badcppdev 3y ago
  Can you enlighten me about when NASA stopped doing things? I got the impression that NASA has 'always' used companies to build things for them. I'm quite cynical so I assume it's always been an tax->government->industry funding process.
  - daniel_iversen 3y ago
    I'm not American but it was my impression they stopped the space shuttle program for so long because it wasn't cost effective and they instead partnered with private enterprises for those use cases?
    - inemesitaffia 3y ago
      NASA has always paid someone for launch. In the past they owned the IP. Now they don't. They have their own rocket and it costs only 2 billion dollars to launch
ben_w 3y ago
The alternative is to leave it all in the hands of the existing private shareholders, which… well, regardless of your opinion on literally anything else he does, how much do you trust Musk on matters of national security?

mdorazio 3y ago

Title is somewhat misleading since this would be another tender offer to select investors, not a public offering. Which is disappointing to me since I'd really like to buy some shares myself. Starlink is perhaps overvalued, but their primary launch business is so far ahead of the competition already that it's kind of ridiculous. With the progress of Starship, I'm expecting another massive step ahead of everyone else within the next 3 years, which would in turn expand the launch market itself to people who couldn't afford it before.

charlie0 3y ago
Don't worry, you'll get a chance to buy in once all the private investors have made their killing.
- thrill 3y ago
  Thank you SEC.
  - asylteltine 3y ago
    And in case people don’t know, this is referring to an accredited investor which is a government enforced way for the rich to get richer.
    - imetatroll 3y ago
      Well they try to justify it by saying that we unwashed masses don't have enough savvy to be investing.
      - mikeyouse 3y ago
        Have you browsed through the Wall St Bets subreddit? Not that pre-IPO investing is any more reckless than throwing away money on naked options, but it gives a good sense for the savviness of the average investor.
      - 3y ago

JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago

I will never get people who have never been in the wild salivating at the idea of having 500Mbit broadband while in the wild. That's overkill in a city, let alone while you are busy enjoying Nature. I mean this company is solely based on this idea of bringing broadband to the wild, because if God forbid any ICBMs are ever launched they'd be launched all at once so even if the booster makes it back thanks to SpaceX tech the US/NATO would have no MIRVs to re-load. My infrastructure bet is on 5G and fiber to dominate connectivity, however my poker mind would love to scoop some SpaceX shares to offload to bigger fools down the road, for some reason people have this weird fetish about Space irregardless of practical applications. Ever since the Apollo days.

stcredzero 3y ago
I will never get people who have never been in the wild salivating at the idea of having broadband while in the wild. 1) This isn't just for people, "in the wild." If you're just rural enough to not have broadband, Starlink is one of your best options. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn_prpVDMRo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bn_prpVDMRo This is going to be a huge boon for the 3rd world! Also note how much of a benefit it was to Ukraine. (And no, Elon Musk didn't cut off bandwidth from Ukraine. That's demonstrably false media spin.) 2) If you've ever felt screwed by your broadband ISP, but had no other choice -- know that this still happens to people in 2023. My infrastructure bet is on 5G and fiber to dominate connectivity, however my poker mind would love to scoop some SpaceX shares to offload to bigger fools down the road. Folks like Jim Chanos have lost billions betting against Elon. And lots of people have made their fortunes taking him at face value. (I'm one!)
- chasd00 3y ago
  > Folks like Jim Chanos have lost billions betting against Elon. Yeah like him or not there’s much easier money to be made than betting on Musk’s failure.
  - JumpinJack_Cash 3y ago
    > > Yeah like him or not there’s much easier money to be made than betting on Musk’s failure. The infrastructure part of my portfolio is not betting on Musk failure but on 5G and Fiber success, which is a given considering that regardless of what the cultists say the majority of people live in urban areas and the % is only increasing. Lagos will be 100M by 2065 and VERY dense, fiber cable and 5G towers with a 5mi range makes way more sense at such population densities than 20,000 km back and forth with a dish . Also developing countries have a huge problem because Sat Dish get stolen by thugs, but of course the cultists sending 50k deposits for cars that will never be built they never had to deal with poverty nor thugs. Lacking skepticism and antibodies to salesmen they represnt the perfect target for predators.

nektro 3y ago

LOL, the idea that anything elon's touched could be worth $150B...