20 ms·

Now overlay all of the bases, airfields, and other assets throughout the Pacific. There are several islands that are effectively stationary aircraft carriers.

by Hayvok 3y ago

Now overlay all of the bases, airfields, and other assets throughout the Pacific. There are several islands that are effectively stationary aircraft carriers. In the event of any Pacific war with the Americans you would be staring down 8-10 super-carrier groups, another 8 smaller carriers and a dozen or so islands each equivalent to a super-carrier’s power. Most nations would struggle to defeat a single carrier group. Imagine fighting twenty.

paganel 3y ago
Why would China venture into the Pacific? That would bring no strategic benefits to them. More generally, I think that the US is preparing to fight the last big war that they’ve been involved in (meaning WW2), instead of preparing for the next one. Again, China won’t venture towards Midway or Hawaii, actually, I think that Imperial Japan might have had a better chance had it decided to focus on the land war (mostly in China) instead of risking it all at Midway.
- nradov 3y ago
  No one expects China to actually invade Midway or Hawaii. However, they do want to secure their sea lines of communication including Taiwan, the Paracel Islands, the Spratly Islands, and the Malacca Strait. Due to lack of natural resources and overpopulation they depend on imports of food, fertilizer, fossil fuels, and iron ore just to survive. Hypothetically if they were to invade Taiwan they might take the risk of conducting long-range strikes against US bases in the theater in order to degrade our ability to respond. Japan in 1941 had no chance to succeed long term by focusing on a land war in China because they were being cut off from access to crucial raw materials. To be clear I am not justifying their aggressive and genocidal military actions. Just pointing out that from that perspective their attacks on Midway and Hawaii made a certain amount of strategic sense and had at least a small chance of working.
  - paganel 3y ago
    > fertilizer They can get that via rail from Russia and Kazahstan with almost no issue, even from Belarus if Kazahstan says no. Yes, it will add some extra-costs but nothing that won't be financially manageable. > fossil fuels Basically just oil, which it will be very easy for them to replace in case of a war against the US by telling their (China's citizens) not to drive petrol cars anymore. Mission accomplished. It also helps that China is leading the EV industry and that it has a very extensive and intensive railway network in place, so if there is one big country that could make do without personal cars that would be China. > iron ore Russia to the rescue again, for example the largest world deposit of iron ore is located in Siberia [1]. Also, most probably the Chinese authorities will put all new civil construction on hold until the blockade/war would be over and they'll redirect all that iron ore to the military industry (for making artillery shells, tanks, stuff like that). Not to mention the fact that by that point Australia (a major US ally) would have already become close to broke (as their economy depends on selling to China lots of stuff taken from the ground). > imports of food I've read some piece in the Economist a couple of months ago where they were mentioning how come China has food reserves for at least 2 or 3 years, but, ignoring that, Russia will come to the rescue again (thanks to their chernozom). As per Japan in WW2, they could have lived off the land (i.e. off China) had they really got in and conquer it all. They had been already doing a similar thing in Korea for three or four decades by that point, so they had practice. The imported oil was basically needed for their Navy, so with no new Navy big campaigns in the works that wouldn't have been necessary. [1] https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/554788 https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/554788
    - nradov 3y ago
      You don't have a realistic understanding of the situation. Rail links are limited, and don't have the same capacity as ships. China has been trying to address that through the "Belt and Road" initiative but with limited progress so far. It's not so much the fertilizer itself that China needs to import, but rather the natural gas needed to manufacture fertilizer. Beyond natural gas, China is also a huge importer of coal for power, heating, and steelmaking. They have no realistic path to energy independence and will remain dependent on maritime imports for decades at least. Reducing petrol use won't allow them to keep their economy running or feed the populace. In a crisis, China could perhaps find alternative sources of food imports at very high costs. But that is not a rational approach to long term national survival. There was never any possibility for the Japanese empire in 1941 to live off the land in the territory they had conquered. They were already being cut off from crucial raw materials including oil and rubber. Without a secure supply of those their situation was simply untenable.
notadev 3y ago
We also have a number of pre-positioned ships, forward-deployed supply ships just chilling in the Pacific, waiting for something to pop off.

by Hayvok 3y ago

paganel 3y ago

Why would China venture into the Pacific? That would bring no strategic benefits to them. More generally, I think that the US is preparing to fight the last big war that they’ve been involved in (meaning WW2), instead of preparing for the next one. Again, China won’t venture towards Midway or Hawaii, actually, I think that Imperial Japan might have had a better chance had it decided to focus on the land war (mostly in China) instead of risking it all at Midway.

nradov 3y ago
No one expects China to actually invade Midway or Hawaii. However, they do want to secure their sea lines of communication including Taiwan, the Paracel Islands, the Spratly Islands, and the Malacca Strait. Due to lack of natural resources and overpopulation they depend on imports of food, fertilizer, fossil fuels, and iron ore just to survive. Hypothetically if they were to invade Taiwan they might take the risk of conducting long-range strikes against US bases in the theater in order to degrade our ability to respond. Japan in 1941 had no chance to succeed long term by focusing on a land war in China because they were being cut off from access to crucial raw materials. To be clear I am not justifying their aggressive and genocidal military actions. Just pointing out that from that perspective their attacks on Midway and Hawaii made a certain amount of strategic sense and had at least a small chance of working.
- paganel 3y ago
  > fertilizer They can get that via rail from Russia and Kazahstan with almost no issue, even from Belarus if Kazahstan says no. Yes, it will add some extra-costs but nothing that won't be financially manageable. > fossil fuels Basically just oil, which it will be very easy for them to replace in case of a war against the US by telling their (China's citizens) not to drive petrol cars anymore. Mission accomplished. It also helps that China is leading the EV industry and that it has a very extensive and intensive railway network in place, so if there is one big country that could make do without personal cars that would be China. > iron ore Russia to the rescue again, for example the largest world deposit of iron ore is located in Siberia [1]. Also, most probably the Chinese authorities will put all new civil construction on hold until the blockade/war would be over and they'll redirect all that iron ore to the military industry (for making artillery shells, tanks, stuff like that). Not to mention the fact that by that point Australia (a major US ally) would have already become close to broke (as their economy depends on selling to China lots of stuff taken from the ground). > imports of food I've read some piece in the Economist a couple of months ago where they were mentioning how come China has food reserves for at least 2 or 3 years, but, ignoring that, Russia will come to the rescue again (thanks to their chernozom). As per Japan in WW2, they could have lived off the land (i.e. off China) had they really got in and conquer it all. They had been already doing a similar thing in Korea for three or four decades by that point, so they had practice. The imported oil was basically needed for their Navy, so with no new Navy big campaigns in the works that wouldn't have been necessary. [1] https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/554788 https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/554788
  - nradov 3y ago
    You don't have a realistic understanding of the situation. Rail links are limited, and don't have the same capacity as ships. China has been trying to address that through the "Belt and Road" initiative but with limited progress so far. It's not so much the fertilizer itself that China needs to import, but rather the natural gas needed to manufacture fertilizer. Beyond natural gas, China is also a huge importer of coal for power, heating, and steelmaking. They have no realistic path to energy independence and will remain dependent on maritime imports for decades at least. Reducing petrol use won't allow them to keep their economy running or feed the populace. In a crisis, China could perhaps find alternative sources of food imports at very high costs. But that is not a rational approach to long term national survival. There was never any possibility for the Japanese empire in 1941 to live off the land in the territory they had conquered. They were already being cut off from crucial raw materials including oil and rubber. Without a secure supply of those their situation was simply untenable.

notadev 3y ago

We also have a number of pre-positioned ships, forward-deployed supply ships just chilling in the Pacific, waiting for something to pop off.