5 ms·

No structure or organization is stronger when their leader emerged as "irreplaceable".

rmbyrro 3y ago
In this case, I don't see as a flaw, but really as Sam's abilities to lead a highly cohesive group and keep it highly motivated and aligned. I don't personally like him, but I must admit he displayed a lot more leadership skills than I'd recognize before. It's inherently hard to replace someone like that in any organization. Take Apple, after losing Jobs. It's not that Apple was a "weak" organization, but really Jobs that was extraordinary and indeed irreplaceable. No, I'm not comparing Jobs and Sam. Just illustrating my point.
- prh8 3y ago
  What's the difference between leadership skills and cult of following?
  - spurgu 3y ago
    I think an awesome leader would naturally create some kind of cult following, while the opposite isn't true.
    - Popeyes 3y ago
      Just like former President Trump?
      - marcosdumay 3y ago
        There are two possible ways to read "the opposite" from the GP. "A cult follower does not make an exceptional leader" is the one you are looking for.
        0perator 3y ago
        While cult followers do not make exceptional leaders, cult leaders are almost by definition exceptional leaders, given they're able to lead the un-indoctrinated into believing an ideology that may not be upheld against critical scrutiny. There is no guarantee or natural law that an exceptional leader's ideology will be exceptional. Exceptionality is not transitive.
  - thedaly 3y ago
    Results
  - TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
    Leadership Gets Shit Done. A cult following wastes everyone's time on ineffectual grandstanding and ego fluffing while everything around them dissolves into incompetence and hostility. They're very orthogonal things.
    - rvnx 3y ago
      I also imagine the morale of the people who are currently implementing things, and getting tired of all these politics about who is going to claim success for their work.
  - rmbyrro 3y ago
    Have you ever seen a useful product produced by a cult?
- pk-protect-ai 3y ago
  Can't you imagine a group of people motivated to conduct AI research? I don't understand... All nerds are highly motivated in their areas of passion, and here we have AI research. Why do they need leadership instead of simply having an abundance of resources for the passionate work they do?
  - DSingularity 3y ago
    As far as it goes for me the only endorsements that matter are those of the core engineering and research teaches of OpenAI. All these opinions of outsiders don’t matter. It’s obvious that most people don’t know Sam personally or professionally and are going off of the combination of: 1. PR pieces being pushed by unknown entities 2. positive endorsements from well known people who are likely know him Both those sources are suspect. We don’t know the motivation behind their endorsements and for the PR pieces we know the author but we don’t know commissioner. Would we feel as positive about Altman if it turns out that half the people and PR pieces endorsing him are because government officials pushing for him? Or if the celebrities in tech are endorsing him because they are financially incentivized? The only endorsements that matter are those of OpenAI employees (ideally those who are not just in his camp because he made them rich).
  - gcanyon 3y ago
    Someone has to set direction. The more people that are involved in that decision process, the slower it will go. Having no leadership at all guarantees failure.
  - jjk166 3y ago
    It's not hard to motivate them to do the fun parts of the job, the challenge is in convincing some of those highly motivated and passionate nerds to not work on the fun thing they are passionate about and instead do the boring and unsexy work that is nevertheless critical to overall success; to get people with strong personal opinions about how a solution should look to accept a different plan just so that everyone is on the same page, to ensure that people actually have access to the resources they need to succeed without going so overboard that the endeavor lacks the reserves to make it to the finish line, and to champion the work of these nerds to the non-nerds who are nevertheless important stakeholders.
- scythe 3y ago
  Jobs was really unusual in that he was not only a good leader, but also an ideologue with the right obsession at the right time. (Some people like the word "visionary".) That obsession being "user experience". Today it's a buzzword, but in 2001 it was hardly even a term. The leadership moment that first comes to mind when I think of Steve Jobs isn't some clever hire or business deal, it's "make it smaller". There have been a very few people like that. Walt Disney comes to mind. Felix Klein. Yen Hongchang [1]. (Elon Musk is maybe the ideologue without the leadership.) 1: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-secret-document-that-transformed-china https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-...
osigurdson 3y ago
Seriously, even in a small group of a few hundred people?
- catapart 3y ago
  I dunno, seems like a pretty self-evident theory? If your leader is irreplaceable, regardless of group size, that's a single point of failure. I can't figure how a single point of failure could ever make something "stronger". I can see arguments for necessity, or efficiency, given contrivances and extreme contexts. But "stronger" doesn't seem like the assessment for whatever necessitating a single point of failure would be.
  - vipshek 3y ago
    "Stronger" is ambiguous. If you interpret it as "resilience" then I agree having a single point of failure is usually more brittle. But if you interpret it as "focused", then having a single charismatic leader can be superior. Concretely, it sounds like this incident brought a lot of internal conflicts to the surface, and they got more-or-less resolved in some way. I can imagine this allows OpenAI to execute with greater focus and velocity going forward, as the internal conflict that was previously causing drag has been resolved. Whether or not that's "better" or "stronger" is up to individual interpretation.
  - hughw 3y ago
    I guess though, a lot of organizations never develop a cohesive leader at all, and the orgs fall apart. They never had an irreplaceable leader though!
  - osigurdson 3y ago
    A company is essentially an optimization problem, meant to minimize / maximize some set of metrics. Usually a companies goal is simply to maximize NPV but in OpenAI's case the goal is to maximize AI while minimizing harm. "Failure" in this context essentially means arriving at a materially suboptimal outcome. Leaders in this situation, can easily be considered "irreplaceable" particularly in the early stages as decisions are incredibly impactful.
dimitrios1 3y ago
This is false, and I see the corollary as a project having a BDIF, especially if the leader is effective. Sam is unmistakably effective.
- acchow 3y ago
  Have you or anyone close to you ever had to take multiple years of leave from work from a car accident or health condition?
  - slingnow 3y ago
    Nope, I've never even __heard__ of someone having to take multiple years of leave from work for any reason. Seems like a fantastically rare event.
    - thingification 3y ago
      Not sure if that's intended as irony, but of course, if somebody is taking multiple years off work, you would be less likely hear about it because by definition they're not going to join the company you work for. I don't think long-term unemployment among people with a disability or other long-term condition is "fantasticaly rare", sadly. This is not the frequency by length of unemployment, but: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1219257/us-employment-rate-disabled-persons/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1219257/us-employment-ra...
    - yeck 3y ago
      In my immediate family I have 3 people that have taken multi-year periods away from work for health reasons. Two are mental health related and the other severe arthritis. 2 of those 3 will probably never work again for the rest of their lives. I've worked with a contractor that went into a coma during covid. Nearly half a year in a coma, then rehab for many more months. Guy is working now, but not shape. I don't know the stats, but I'd be surprised if long medical leaves are as rare as you think.
      - 3y ago
qez2 3y ago
[dead]
rvnx 3y ago
And correlation does not imply causality. Example: Put a loser as CEO of a rocket ship, and there is a huge chance that the company will still be successful. Put a loser as CEO of a sinking ship, and there is a huge chance that the company will fail. The exceptional CEOs are those who turn failures into successes. The fact this drama has emerged is the symptom of a failure. In a company with a great CEO this shouldn’t be happening.
Aunche 3y ago
I don't think Sam is necessarily irreplaceable. It's just that Helen Toner and co were so detached from the rest of the organization they might as well been on Mars, as demonstrated by their interim CEO pick instantly turning against them.

In this case, I don't see as a flaw, but really as Sam's abilities to lead a highly cohesive group and keep it highly motivated and aligned. I don't personally like him, but I must admit he displayed a lot more leadership skills than I'd recognize before. It's inherently hard to replace someone like that in any organization. Take Apple, after losing Jobs. It's not that Apple was a "weak" organization, but really Jobs that was extraordinary and indeed irreplaceable. No, I'm not comparing Jobs and Sam. Just illustrating my point.

prh8 3y ago
What's the difference between leadership skills and cult of following?
- spurgu 3y ago
  I think an awesome leader would naturally create some kind of cult following, while the opposite isn't true.
  - Popeyes 3y ago
    Just like former President Trump?
    - marcosdumay 3y ago
      There are two possible ways to read "the opposite" from the GP. "A cult follower does not make an exceptional leader" is the one you are looking for.
      - 0perator 3y ago
        While cult followers do not make exceptional leaders, cult leaders are almost by definition exceptional leaders, given they're able to lead the un-indoctrinated into believing an ideology that may not be upheld against critical scrutiny. There is no guarantee or natural law that an exceptional leader's ideology will be exceptional. Exceptionality is not transitive.
- thedaly 3y ago
  Results
- TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
  Leadership Gets Shit Done. A cult following wastes everyone's time on ineffectual grandstanding and ego fluffing while everything around them dissolves into incompetence and hostility. They're very orthogonal things.
  - rvnx 3y ago
    I also imagine the morale of the people who are currently implementing things, and getting tired of all these politics about who is going to claim success for their work.
- rmbyrro 3y ago
  Have you ever seen a useful product produced by a cult?
pk-protect-ai 3y ago
Can't you imagine a group of people motivated to conduct AI research? I don't understand... All nerds are highly motivated in their areas of passion, and here we have AI research. Why do they need leadership instead of simply having an abundance of resources for the passionate work they do?
- DSingularity 3y ago
  As far as it goes for me the only endorsements that matter are those of the core engineering and research teaches of OpenAI. All these opinions of outsiders don’t matter. It’s obvious that most people don’t know Sam personally or professionally and are going off of the combination of: 1. PR pieces being pushed by unknown entities 2. positive endorsements from well known people who are likely know him Both those sources are suspect. We don’t know the motivation behind their endorsements and for the PR pieces we know the author but we don’t know commissioner. Would we feel as positive about Altman if it turns out that half the people and PR pieces endorsing him are because government officials pushing for him? Or if the celebrities in tech are endorsing him because they are financially incentivized? The only endorsements that matter are those of OpenAI employees (ideally those who are not just in his camp because he made them rich).
- gcanyon 3y ago
  Someone has to set direction. The more people that are involved in that decision process, the slower it will go. Having no leadership at all guarantees failure.
- jjk166 3y ago
  It's not hard to motivate them to do the fun parts of the job, the challenge is in convincing some of those highly motivated and passionate nerds to not work on the fun thing they are passionate about and instead do the boring and unsexy work that is nevertheless critical to overall success; to get people with strong personal opinions about how a solution should look to accept a different plan just so that everyone is on the same page, to ensure that people actually have access to the resources they need to succeed without going so overboard that the endeavor lacks the reserves to make it to the finish line, and to champion the work of these nerds to the non-nerds who are nevertheless important stakeholders.
scythe 3y ago
Jobs was really unusual in that he was not only a good leader, but also an ideologue with the right obsession at the right time. (Some people like the word "visionary".) That obsession being "user experience". Today it's a buzzword, but in 2001 it was hardly even a term. The leadership moment that first comes to mind when I think of Steve Jobs isn't some clever hire or business deal, it's "make it smaller". There have been a very few people like that. Walt Disney comes to mind. Felix Klein. Yen Hongchang [1]. (Elon Musk is maybe the ideologue without the leadership.) 1: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-secret-document-that-transformed-china https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-...

osigurdson 3y ago

Seriously, even in a small group of a few hundred people?

catapart 3y ago
I dunno, seems like a pretty self-evident theory? If your leader is irreplaceable, regardless of group size, that's a single point of failure. I can't figure how a single point of failure could ever make something "stronger". I can see arguments for necessity, or efficiency, given contrivances and extreme contexts. But "stronger" doesn't seem like the assessment for whatever necessitating a single point of failure would be.
- vipshek 3y ago
  "Stronger" is ambiguous. If you interpret it as "resilience" then I agree having a single point of failure is usually more brittle. But if you interpret it as "focused", then having a single charismatic leader can be superior. Concretely, it sounds like this incident brought a lot of internal conflicts to the surface, and they got more-or-less resolved in some way. I can imagine this allows OpenAI to execute with greater focus and velocity going forward, as the internal conflict that was previously causing drag has been resolved. Whether or not that's "better" or "stronger" is up to individual interpretation.
- hughw 3y ago
  I guess though, a lot of organizations never develop a cohesive leader at all, and the orgs fall apart. They never had an irreplaceable leader though!
- osigurdson 3y ago
  A company is essentially an optimization problem, meant to minimize / maximize some set of metrics. Usually a companies goal is simply to maximize NPV but in OpenAI's case the goal is to maximize AI while minimizing harm. "Failure" in this context essentially means arriving at a materially suboptimal outcome. Leaders in this situation, can easily be considered "irreplaceable" particularly in the early stages as decisions are incredibly impactful.

dimitrios1 3y ago

This is false, and I see the corollary as a project having a BDIF, especially if the leader is effective. Sam is unmistakably effective.

acchow 3y ago
Have you or anyone close to you ever had to take multiple years of leave from work from a car accident or health condition?
- slingnow 3y ago
  Nope, I've never even __heard__ of someone having to take multiple years of leave from work for any reason. Seems like a fantastically rare event.
  - thingification 3y ago
    Not sure if that's intended as irony, but of course, if somebody is taking multiple years off work, you would be less likely hear about it because by definition they're not going to join the company you work for. I don't think long-term unemployment among people with a disability or other long-term condition is "fantasticaly rare", sadly. This is not the frequency by length of unemployment, but: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1219257/us-employment-rate-disabled-persons/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1219257/us-employment-ra...
  - yeck 3y ago
    In my immediate family I have 3 people that have taken multi-year periods away from work for health reasons. Two are mental health related and the other severe arthritis. 2 of those 3 will probably never work again for the rest of their lives. I've worked with a contractor that went into a coma during covid. Nearly half a year in a coma, then rehab for many more months. Guy is working now, but not shape. I don't know the stats, but I'd be surprised if long medical leaves are as rare as you think.
    - 3y ago

qez2 3y ago

[dead]

rvnx 3y ago

And correlation does not imply causality. Example: Put a loser as CEO of a rocket ship, and there is a huge chance that the company will still be successful. Put a loser as CEO of a sinking ship, and there is a huge chance that the company will fail. The exceptional CEOs are those who turn failures into successes. The fact this drama has emerged is the symptom of a failure. In a company with a great CEO this shouldn’t be happening.

Aunche 3y ago

I don't think Sam is necessarily irreplaceable. It's just that Helen Toner and co were so detached from the rest of the organization they might as well been on Mars, as demonstrated by their interim CEO pick instantly turning against them.