7 ms·

China

bozhark 3y ago
Already had it
npalli 3y ago
1. They probably already have it :-) 2. Imagine the sheer pain of duplicating every single process and spec to the minutest detail, nobody is flying an airplane that only 'works' 99.99% of the time. Probably easier to start from scratch and learn it. BTW, this was tried by Russia in the all through the '80s, they tried to steal all advanced tech. but by the time they duplicated the stolen technology, the next generation appeared. A losing battle.
- reactordev 3y ago
  Sounds a lot like software forks… cough Not the ones that were forked due to abandonment, but the forks due to “irreconcilable differences”.
  - denimnerd42 3y ago
    or hadoop
- ethbr1 3y ago
  > nobody is flying an airplane that only 'works' 99.99% of the time Might I introduce you to the Tupolev Tu-134? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_the_Tupolev_Tu-134 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incide...
  - throw0101b 3y ago
    > Might I introduce you to the Tupolev Tu-134? Also perhaps the 737-MAX. :) * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Au...
    - verdverm 3y ago
      Given how much the max family and 8 are flown, I don't think this holds up. Some searching says... 1. >1000 flights per day for the family 2. 2 US carriers accounting for more than 200 Max 8 per day So one would have to get to 20,000 flights after two crashes to get 2 nines. We're well past that threshold
      - Xixi 3y ago
        From inception to the second crash, numbers were abysmal. The 737 Max was crashing at a rate of about one per hundred thousand flights, two order of magnitude worse that the 737 NG (one fatal crash per 10 million flights). Said differently, the Max 8 was working safely 99.999% of the time, while the 737 NG was working safely 99.99999% of the time. An order of magnitude better than 99.99%, but two orders of magnitude worse than expected... It is certainly a lot safer now. Hopefully even better than the 737 NG.
      - throwaway318 3y ago
        The probability of not having a crash after 20,000 flights, with 99.99% chance per flight, assuming no serial correlation, is 13%.
        verdverm 3y ago
        Yes, there is a better, more accurate method than my napkin math, which was only to provide a baseline most could understand to see we are well beyond the two nines
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
  - NL807 3y ago
    Kinda scary how many times I flew with those in 80s.
    - ethbr1 3y ago
      I was thinking about that... but even with a relatively abysmal safety record... on average it's still an incredibly safe way to travel. Air safety seems the quintessential "discounting the horror of extremely rare accidents from the actual total safety rate" mental trap. When it's years between incidents, and that widely used? Yeah, I'd still fly on one if I needed to. But I swim in the pool during thunderstorms too, so not really a zero risk type person.
  - sterlind 3y ago
    not to mention the Tu-144, aka the "Concordski": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-144 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-144 though that one was so defective that even the Soviets didn't want to risk flying it. it could barely get into the air, and that'd be with several major faults and alarms blaring.
  - xcdzvyn 3y ago
    I disagree that it's possible to estimate how dangerous an aircraft is based on its incidents/flight ratio. There's lots of other factors: Russian weather, inadequate training, inadequate maintenance, and far more landings on poorly maintained and even totally unpaved runways: > Capable of operating from unpaved and gravel airfields with only basic facilities, it was widely used in the extreme Arctic conditions of Russia's northern/eastern regions, where other airliners were unable to operate.
    - KHRZ 3y ago
      Russian weather? Is this an euphemism for Russian air defense?
- johann8384 3y ago
  > nobody is flying an airplane that only 'works' 99.99% of the time The 737 Max 8.
  - deaddodo 3y ago
    Already addressed in another thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38358542 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38358542
- thret 3y ago
  Boeing are a major defence contractor, I'm sure at least some of the information is secret.
  - newuser94303 3y ago
    A defense contractor should have better security
    - martinsnow 3y ago
      Really
- SomeRndName11 3y ago
  1. It was USSR, not Russia. For many who were USSR citizen till 1991, but neither ethnically or geographically Russians, this rubs very wrong way. 2. Aviation in the USSR was developing completely independent, and you can accuse USSR in stealing technology in many areas but certainly not in aviation.

China

Already had it

1. They probably already have it :-) 2. Imagine the sheer pain of duplicating every single process and spec to the minutest detail, nobody is flying an airplane that only 'works' 99.99% of the time. Probably easier to start from scratch and learn it. BTW, this was tried by Russia in the all through the '80s, they tried to steal all advanced tech. but by the time they duplicated the stolen technology, the next generation appeared. A losing battle.

reactordev 3y ago
Sounds a lot like software forks… cough Not the ones that were forked due to abandonment, but the forks due to “irreconcilable differences”.
- denimnerd42 3y ago
  or hadoop
ethbr1 3y ago
> nobody is flying an airplane that only 'works' 99.99% of the time Might I introduce you to the Tupolev Tu-134? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_the_Tupolev_Tu-134 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incide...
- throw0101b 3y ago
  > Might I introduce you to the Tupolev Tu-134? Also perhaps the 737-MAX. :) * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Au...
  - verdverm 3y ago
    Given how much the max family and 8 are flown, I don't think this holds up. Some searching says... 1. >1000 flights per day for the family 2. 2 US carriers accounting for more than 200 Max 8 per day So one would have to get to 20,000 flights after two crashes to get 2 nines. We're well past that threshold
    - Xixi 3y ago
      From inception to the second crash, numbers were abysmal. The 737 Max was crashing at a rate of about one per hundred thousand flights, two order of magnitude worse that the 737 NG (one fatal crash per 10 million flights). Said differently, the Max 8 was working safely 99.999% of the time, while the 737 NG was working safely 99.99999% of the time. An order of magnitude better than 99.99%, but two orders of magnitude worse than expected... It is certainly a lot safer now. Hopefully even better than the 737 NG.
    - throwaway318 3y ago
      The probability of not having a crash after 20,000 flights, with 99.99% chance per flight, assuming no serial correlation, is 13%.
      - verdverm 3y ago
        Yes, there is a better, more accurate method than my napkin math, which was only to provide a baseline most could understand to see we are well beyond the two nines
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
- NL807 3y ago
  Kinda scary how many times I flew with those in 80s.
  - ethbr1 3y ago
    I was thinking about that... but even with a relatively abysmal safety record... on average it's still an incredibly safe way to travel. Air safety seems the quintessential "discounting the horror of extremely rare accidents from the actual total safety rate" mental trap. When it's years between incidents, and that widely used? Yeah, I'd still fly on one if I needed to. But I swim in the pool during thunderstorms too, so not really a zero risk type person.
- sterlind 3y ago
  not to mention the Tu-144, aka the "Concordski": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-144 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-144 though that one was so defective that even the Soviets didn't want to risk flying it. it could barely get into the air, and that'd be with several major faults and alarms blaring.
- xcdzvyn 3y ago
  I disagree that it's possible to estimate how dangerous an aircraft is based on its incidents/flight ratio. There's lots of other factors: Russian weather, inadequate training, inadequate maintenance, and far more landings on poorly maintained and even totally unpaved runways: > Capable of operating from unpaved and gravel airfields with only basic facilities, it was widely used in the extreme Arctic conditions of Russia's northern/eastern regions, where other airliners were unable to operate.
  - KHRZ 3y ago
    Russian weather? Is this an euphemism for Russian air defense?
johann8384 3y ago
> nobody is flying an airplane that only 'works' 99.99% of the time The 737 Max 8.
- deaddodo 3y ago
  Already addressed in another thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38358542 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38358542
thret 3y ago
Boeing are a major defence contractor, I'm sure at least some of the information is secret.
- newuser94303 3y ago
  A defense contractor should have better security
  - martinsnow 3y ago
    Really
SomeRndName11 3y ago
1. It was USSR, not Russia. For many who were USSR citizen till 1991, but neither ethnically or geographically Russians, this rubs very wrong way. 2. Aviation in the USSR was developing completely independent, and you can accuse USSR in stealing technology in many areas but certainly not in aviation.