4 ms·

Maybe this is a big-city perspective, but I've understood that the main constraint driving aircraft size is runway capacity during peak hours. Airports already

Maybe this is a big-city perspective, but I've understood that the main constraint driving aircraft size is runway capacity during peak hours. Airports already require a lot of land for handling a relatively small number of passengers. As building additional runways is often not feasible, the only way to increase passenger capacity is using bigger aircraft. I fly between Helsinki and London often enough. On that route, the aircraft is typically either an A320 or an A350.

stuart8ol 3y ago
Yeah there will be some slot constrained routes that will certainly need to stick to the larger aircraft sizes, but many that can benefit from the flexibility of a smaller aircraft size if the operating cost was low enough. There are second city airport and regional routes that would benefit from the smaller plane size, as well as the market that is currently served by these types of planes - Asia pacific is one example of a growing turboprop market.
timeon 3y ago
Airplanes presented here looks like those in private jet category. So these are probably aiming to replace those first?
- stuart8ol 3y ago
  We are not really targeting the private or business jet market (though if someone wanted one for this purpose we wouldn't turn them away!). There is another impressive YC company that is that you should check out, Beyond Aero https://bookface.ycombinator.com/company/26134 https://bookface.ycombinator.com/company/26134 We are really targeting a low cost commercial market - moving people and cargo. The smaller size is driven in part by the technology - with 50 seats being a good size to capture a large proportion of flying traffic - and partly that it will be faster and cheaper to certify and get a smaller aircraft into the market.
jillesvangurp 3y ago
That's true for big airplanes. Small ones need a lot less runway. Which means they can land at smaller airports. Some of the electrical VTOL planes under development currently don't need airports at all and can take off from pretty much any flat surface. The size of jet planes is dictated by fuel cost. Fuel is expensive. Large planes expend it more efficiently. But they are also loud and pollute. So people don't like them too close to where they live. When you use fuel by the thousands of liters per flight, it starts to add up in terms of cost. It's also why private jets are only for rich people. They burn hundreds of liters of expensive fuel per flight. Add to that the maintenance and staffing and you are looking at eye watering amounts per flight. Hydrogen is of course not cheap currently but it might drop in price substantially as renewable energy gets cheaper. At that point a few smaller planes might be cost competitive with a larger jet fueled plane. But still, there are lots of logistical challenges related to getting large quantities of hydrogen to fuel planes. I doubt it will be very economical or practical any time soon. My pet theory is actually that most short haul flight will shift to small, autonomous, electrical planes. They'll wipe out three of the largest cost factors in aviation: fuel, staffing, and maintenance cost (much less complex mechanical systems). They'll fly point to point rather than hub to hub; or at least tiny airport close to your origin to tiny airport close to your destination. If you want to fly further, you can just chain a few hops. It will work like an uber pretty much. Inter continental flight is a different challenge. At least short term it's not feasible to do that with battery electric. Synthetic fuels and hydrogen look promising for that. But I wouldn't discount electric for that either long term. If battery breakthroughs keep on happening and we get some fancy solid state batteries delivering 2000 watt per kg or so, that whole game changes as well.
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  Short runways still need to be sited in cities. In a lot of areas airports are already so close together that the airspace is congested with all the conflicting paths and holding patterns; I think the worst example is NYC where Teterboro, JFK, LaGuardia and Newark make the airspace very suboptimal.
  - rickydroll 3y ago
stetrain 3y ago
Depends on the city and airport. Atlanta for example is a huge busy airport but also serves a lot of regional connections. I have flow in on a 757 and transferred to a much smaller regional jet to hop to a smaller city or town.
foobarian 3y ago
As long as we have the number from the OP (60% aircraft sold) it seems like it wouldn't matter where those aircraft go.
marcosdumay 3y ago
Most airports aren't big or constrained. Instead, a huge problem with aviation is making flights between smaller cities viable. If the OP's planes get any lower operational costs or can profitably scale into fewer passengers, his company will have plenty of success.

stuart8ol 3y ago

Yeah there will be some slot constrained routes that will certainly need to stick to the larger aircraft sizes, but many that can benefit from the flexibility of a smaller aircraft size if the operating cost was low enough. There are second city airport and regional routes that would benefit from the smaller plane size, as well as the market that is currently served by these types of planes - Asia pacific is one example of a growing turboprop market.

timeon 3y ago

Airplanes presented here looks like those in private jet category. So these are probably aiming to replace those first?

stuart8ol 3y ago
We are not really targeting the private or business jet market (though if someone wanted one for this purpose we wouldn't turn them away!). There is another impressive YC company that is that you should check out, Beyond Aero https://bookface.ycombinator.com/company/26134 https://bookface.ycombinator.com/company/26134 We are really targeting a low cost commercial market - moving people and cargo. The smaller size is driven in part by the technology - with 50 seats being a good size to capture a large proportion of flying traffic - and partly that it will be faster and cheaper to certify and get a smaller aircraft into the market.

jillesvangurp 3y ago

That's true for big airplanes. Small ones need a lot less runway. Which means they can land at smaller airports. Some of the electrical VTOL planes under development currently don't need airports at all and can take off from pretty much any flat surface. The size of jet planes is dictated by fuel cost. Fuel is expensive. Large planes expend it more efficiently. But they are also loud and pollute. So people don't like them too close to where they live. When you use fuel by the thousands of liters per flight, it starts to add up in terms of cost. It's also why private jets are only for rich people. They burn hundreds of liters of expensive fuel per flight. Add to that the maintenance and staffing and you are looking at eye watering amounts per flight. Hydrogen is of course not cheap currently but it might drop in price substantially as renewable energy gets cheaper. At that point a few smaller planes might be cost competitive with a larger jet fueled plane. But still, there are lots of logistical challenges related to getting large quantities of hydrogen to fuel planes. I doubt it will be very economical or practical any time soon. My pet theory is actually that most short haul flight will shift to small, autonomous, electrical planes. They'll wipe out three of the largest cost factors in aviation: fuel, staffing, and maintenance cost (much less complex mechanical systems). They'll fly point to point rather than hub to hub; or at least tiny airport close to your origin to tiny airport close to your destination. If you want to fly further, you can just chain a few hops. It will work like an uber pretty much. Inter continental flight is a different challenge. At least short term it's not feasible to do that with battery electric. Synthetic fuels and hydrogen look promising for that. But I wouldn't discount electric for that either long term. If battery breakthroughs keep on happening and we get some fancy solid state batteries delivering 2000 watt per kg or so, that whole game changes as well.

bobthepanda 3y ago
Short runways still need to be sited in cities. In a lot of areas airports are already so close together that the airspace is congested with all the conflicting paths and holding patterns; I think the worst example is NYC where Teterboro, JFK, LaGuardia and Newark make the airspace very suboptimal.
- rickydroll 3y ago

stetrain 3y ago

Depends on the city and airport. Atlanta for example is a huge busy airport but also serves a lot of regional connections. I have flow in on a 757 and transferred to a much smaller regional jet to hop to a smaller city or town.

foobarian 3y ago

As long as we have the number from the OP (60% aircraft sold) it seems like it wouldn't matter where those aircraft go.

marcosdumay 3y ago

Most airports aren't big or constrained. Instead, a huge problem with aviation is making flights between smaller cities viable. If the OP's planes get any lower operational costs or can profitably scale into fewer passengers, his company will have plenty of success.