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Stop letting your imagination run away. > we could probably get rid of >50% of all cars on the road. ... If cars could be operating full-time 24/7, ready to be

Stop letting your imagination run away. > we could probably get rid of >50% of all cars on the road. ... If cars could be operating full-time 24/7, ready to be dispatched anywhere as needed Wow, you really don't get it, do you? No one wants to get in their car to find it a mess from an inconsiderate customer. No want wants to deal with the extra wear and tear. Most people drive during rush hour, so assuming you need your car to get you to and from work, your car won't be doing chores for you when you don't need it. Really, robotaxis may cut down on lower-use cars. IE, if you live in the city, and don't use your car everyday, you might prefer to use a robotaxi. It might even be "worth it" if you live where parking is sparse. (Or not, because your self-driving car could park itself 15 minutes away.) Robotaxis might make it so that multi-car households can cut down on the cars in their household. But turning every car owner into an entrepreneur who rents out their car when they don't need it? You're letting your imagination run away! And here's the problem: So many people are letting their imaginations run away regarding self-driving cars and robotaxis that it's actively hurting development. The pie-in-the-sky promises like yours never come true; so the people who need to believe in self-driving-cars to keep investing loose faith and cut funding.

mullingitover 3y ago
> But turning every car owner into an entrepreneur who rents out their car when they don't need it? You're letting your imagination run away! I'm glad we agree on this, individuals renting out their own car is a wacky idea. I picture it more as a subscription service. Pay x dollars per month for an on-demand vehicle, or just pay per use.
- gwbas1c 3y ago
  That might work for people in the city, or people who have light automobile needs. But the (uhm) unpredictability of what you get may make this less desirable for everyday use: If you have a family, you may find it easier (and cheaper) to own your own vehicle that your stuff can be left in. If you live in a rural area, the customer density may make it uneconomic to rely on a robotaxi. If you're of the wide middle class you just might like the fact that the space that you spend 1-2 hours a day in is yours, and won't be defiled by someone else. You live near the beach and get tired of cars randomly showing up filled with beach sand or wet seats. --- But I want to stress a very important mindset: The interior of a car is your space. People leave stuff in their cars for all sorts of reasons. You could be doing a certain activity and leave some backup equipment in your car. You could be of a certain profession and always carry certain equipment in case you get a call from a customer... You could be running errands and need to carry different things with you for different stops. This becomes significantly harder with robotaxis when your car is no longer your private space. Don't assume that robotaxis will suddenly make people change this behavior. Instead, assume that you can't fully predict how markets will adjust to robotaxis and self-driving cars. --- Honestly, I think the early markets for self-driving cars will (obviously) be robotaxis that are cheaper than current taxis / ubers / lyfts. But, I don't think that will be the first market. I think the first market will be people who really need self-driving vehicles and have the money to pay for it. They will be able to jump in and smooth over situations when the car can't drive itself. I suspect these are people who have access to money and have some form of impairment that makes paying for self-driving "worth it."
  - orwin 3y ago
    This was honestly the best comment on self-driving cars i've read on HN. Except for the first paragraph, almost all your points i've never thought about. thank you (just upvoting wasn't enough, sorry)

mullingitover 3y ago

> But turning every car owner into an entrepreneur who rents out their car when they don't need it? You're letting your imagination run away! I'm glad we agree on this, individuals renting out their own car is a wacky idea. I picture it more as a subscription service. Pay x dollars per month for an on-demand vehicle, or just pay per use.

gwbas1c 3y ago
That might work for people in the city, or people who have light automobile needs. But the (uhm) unpredictability of what you get may make this less desirable for everyday use: If you have a family, you may find it easier (and cheaper) to own your own vehicle that your stuff can be left in. If you live in a rural area, the customer density may make it uneconomic to rely on a robotaxi. If you're of the wide middle class you just might like the fact that the space that you spend 1-2 hours a day in is yours, and won't be defiled by someone else. You live near the beach and get tired of cars randomly showing up filled with beach sand or wet seats. --- But I want to stress a very important mindset: The interior of a car is your space. People leave stuff in their cars for all sorts of reasons. You could be doing a certain activity and leave some backup equipment in your car. You could be of a certain profession and always carry certain equipment in case you get a call from a customer... You could be running errands and need to carry different things with you for different stops. This becomes significantly harder with robotaxis when your car is no longer your private space. Don't assume that robotaxis will suddenly make people change this behavior. Instead, assume that you can't fully predict how markets will adjust to robotaxis and self-driving cars. --- Honestly, I think the early markets for self-driving cars will (obviously) be robotaxis that are cheaper than current taxis / ubers / lyfts. But, I don't think that will be the first market. I think the first market will be people who really need self-driving vehicles and have the money to pay for it. They will be able to jump in and smooth over situations when the car can't drive itself. I suspect these are people who have access to money and have some form of impairment that makes paying for self-driving "worth it."
- orwin 3y ago
  This was honestly the best comment on self-driving cars i've read on HN. Except for the first paragraph, almost all your points i've never thought about. thank you (just upvoting wasn't enough, sorry)