6 ms·

Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry (2013)

36 points by nixass 3y ago

fyokdrigd 3y ago
full interviews are MUCH better than this trepid empty summary. here's George's https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jWtbJxzGpQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jWtbJxzGpQ
g42gregory 3y ago
Making good movies is extremely hard. I remember James Cameron saying that, during the casting for Terminator 2, he had to come in on the weekend for the nth-time, just to see how sun will reflect off Robert Patrick's face (T-1000) during that particular day time. That's the level of focus required. Once you inject enough interfering factors, such as various ideologies, you will end up with inferior products Hollywood currently producing.
- iancmceachern 3y ago
  It's just like any other art form. It cannot be done my committee. It has to be the vision of one, or a small handful, of genius(s).
  - krisoft 3y ago
    > It's just like any other art form. But of course it is also unlike most other art forms. To execute a movie you need a small army of specialist each providing their own talents. And of course one also needs wagonloads of money for wages, equipment, and other costs. I believe that is where all the weird fighting over control comes from. Have you ever heard of producers bullying poets over control of their poems? I haven't. Probably because the involved budgets are much smaller. In this regard I don't know what other art forms are similar to it? Cathedral building maybe?
    - iancmceachern 3y ago
      Check out the history of art, Renaissance stuff. These artists, Da Vinci, Michelangelo, etc. all had small armies of folks working for them. Apprentices, workers, etc. Much of the magic of making art at the time was in sourcing, mixing and making the pigments, and other raw materials. So much work went into making a painting before the artists brush touched the substrate. It's not like today when you walk down to an art supply store and buy paint. You had to sail to the ends of the earth, make pigments, etc. Music is similar. Go to the opera or symphony or live music of any kind. There is dozens, sometimes hundreds of people who have been practicing and working their whole lives at their piece of the puzzle. More than even the musicians, there are thr riggers, lighting and effects professionals, etc. It takes a small army of professionals to deliver a modern stage show. Even a lone violin player playing a stratavarious. So much has gone into the creation, preservation and understanding of the instrument, how to play it, the composer of the piece, and finally the musician. Art isn't simple, or easy. There are also lots of famous examples of one person (or close) films. They are not necessarily more complex or involved than any other art form, although often are, it's not necessarily the case.
    - brightlancer 3y ago
      I agree with everything except the wagons of money: special effects are the biggest driver of costs now, so a regular drama or comedy can be made for very little money -- indie films are usually under $1M, and plenty are made for under $100k. If you have a strong script then you're most of the way there.
      - iancmceachern 3y ago
        Yes and no. Yes for big blockbusters like Avatar and Marvel movies. No because CGI tech is being rapidly democritized and lower cost houses are increasingly able to do amazing things. Movies like Distric 9 and Chappie have shown you can make an effects driven movie for far less that is a critical and commercial success. Check out Corridor Crew in youtube to see what's possible now out of your garage. It's amazing, there are so many fun fiction type movies being made today that are equal or higher quality to commercial movies from 10 or 15 years ago.
einpoklum 3y ago
1. It should be the _US_ film industry. 2. The vast majority of films are not multi-hundred-million-USD behemoths. Let's remember that.
mcpackieh 3y ago
[dead]
4death4 3y ago
Almost no mention of streaming and also contains this gem: > Lucas and Spielberg also spoke of vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn’t been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters This definitely wasn’t true at the time and it isn’t true now. Just goes to show how hard it is to predict the future.
- readthenotes1 3y ago
  Or even understand the present
- santoshalper 3y ago
  Especially when you're that disconnected from the reality of the present.
- mcpackieh 3y ago
  If you judge it by playtime it's probably true. Story-driven games like TLOU sell well sometimes but the games that gamers spend the most time with are those with attractive gameplay loops; the story just becomes window dressing. Personally I put down TLOU after two or three hours; the story didn't excite me (generic zombie slop, sorry) and the sneak/combat gameplay was too bland to keep me interested. On the other hand, MGS5's story is a half-baked abortion but the gameplay kept me coming back for several hundred hours.
  - swombat 3y ago
    The story gets way more deep and interesting as you progress. If you feel like giving it another shot, the remaster also makes it look super-pretty and improved the gameplay somewhat.
  - hotdogscout 3y ago
    When I first played TLOU I had that same reaction but as the other comment said it is a lot deeper than it seems. An allegory for all types of love represented by each location.
- 3y ago
nottorp 3y ago
Well the movie industry did change, but not in the way he predicted? It switched from summer blockbusters to carbon copy series on streaming platforms.
PrimeMcFly 3y ago
The movie industry is going to dwindle in size and power over the next decade. Look at the crappy AI apps that can generate 'movies' available now, look at what unreal engine 5 can do, look at what ChatGPT can do...in 5 - 10 years, we will be able to give a prompt and have photorealistic movies/tv episodes generated, which will satisfy the vast majority of people.
- namaria 3y ago
  I really don't think private puppet shows, as visually impressive as they could get, would be engaging. The point of a good story is in no small part the surprise and the transformation in world view it is capable of delivering.
  - fullshark 3y ago
    Fine it will be hobbyists/moonlighting creators on streaming platforms delivering a heavy dose of 20 second to 30 minute AI generated content. Basically where we are today except it will just get more and more engaging as the tools become more accessible/powerful.
    - namaria 3y ago
      This weird assumption that what amounts to just a competent chatbot will somehow "be good" at everything at some point in the future is just starting to sound like faith based argument to me.
  - PrimeMcFly 3y ago
    AI can already write scripts that match bottom of the barrel entertainment like the fast and the furious movies. The resultant content will absolutely be engaging for the majority of the population, and it can absolutely contain surprise and transformation while delivering a world view.
    - namaria 3y ago
      These are very strong and unwarranted convictions. Did you watch never ending seinfeld? I know "the AI will keep getting better". I guess we'll see about that.
tremon 3y ago
vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn’t been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters I'm not sure about this one. More than twenty years later, I still fondly recall characters like Imoen, Minsc, or Aribeth.

36 points by nixass 3y ago

full interviews are MUCH better than this trepid empty summary. here's George's https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jWtbJxzGpQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jWtbJxzGpQ

g42gregory 3y ago

Making good movies is extremely hard. I remember James Cameron saying that, during the casting for Terminator 2, he had to come in on the weekend for the nth-time, just to see how sun will reflect off Robert Patrick's face (T-1000) during that particular day time. That's the level of focus required. Once you inject enough interfering factors, such as various ideologies, you will end up with inferior products Hollywood currently producing.

iancmceachern 3y ago
It's just like any other art form. It cannot be done my committee. It has to be the vision of one, or a small handful, of genius(s).
- krisoft 3y ago
  > It's just like any other art form. But of course it is also unlike most other art forms. To execute a movie you need a small army of specialist each providing their own talents. And of course one also needs wagonloads of money for wages, equipment, and other costs. I believe that is where all the weird fighting over control comes from. Have you ever heard of producers bullying poets over control of their poems? I haven't. Probably because the involved budgets are much smaller. In this regard I don't know what other art forms are similar to it? Cathedral building maybe?
  - iancmceachern 3y ago
    Check out the history of art, Renaissance stuff. These artists, Da Vinci, Michelangelo, etc. all had small armies of folks working for them. Apprentices, workers, etc. Much of the magic of making art at the time was in sourcing, mixing and making the pigments, and other raw materials. So much work went into making a painting before the artists brush touched the substrate. It's not like today when you walk down to an art supply store and buy paint. You had to sail to the ends of the earth, make pigments, etc. Music is similar. Go to the opera or symphony or live music of any kind. There is dozens, sometimes hundreds of people who have been practicing and working their whole lives at their piece of the puzzle. More than even the musicians, there are thr riggers, lighting and effects professionals, etc. It takes a small army of professionals to deliver a modern stage show. Even a lone violin player playing a stratavarious. So much has gone into the creation, preservation and understanding of the instrument, how to play it, the composer of the piece, and finally the musician. Art isn't simple, or easy. There are also lots of famous examples of one person (or close) films. They are not necessarily more complex or involved than any other art form, although often are, it's not necessarily the case.
  - brightlancer 3y ago
    I agree with everything except the wagons of money: special effects are the biggest driver of costs now, so a regular drama or comedy can be made for very little money -- indie films are usually under $1M, and plenty are made for under $100k. If you have a strong script then you're most of the way there.
    - iancmceachern 3y ago
      Yes and no. Yes for big blockbusters like Avatar and Marvel movies. No because CGI tech is being rapidly democritized and lower cost houses are increasingly able to do amazing things. Movies like Distric 9 and Chappie have shown you can make an effects driven movie for far less that is a critical and commercial success. Check out Corridor Crew in youtube to see what's possible now out of your garage. It's amazing, there are so many fun fiction type movies being made today that are equal or higher quality to commercial movies from 10 or 15 years ago.

einpoklum 3y ago

1. It should be the _US_ film industry. 2. The vast majority of films are not multi-hundred-million-USD behemoths. Let's remember that.

mcpackieh 3y ago

[dead]

4death4 3y ago

Almost no mention of streaming and also contains this gem: > Lucas and Spielberg also spoke of vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn’t been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters This definitely wasn’t true at the time and it isn’t true now. Just goes to show how hard it is to predict the future.

readthenotes1 3y ago
Or even understand the present
santoshalper 3y ago
Especially when you're that disconnected from the reality of the present.
mcpackieh 3y ago
If you judge it by playtime it's probably true. Story-driven games like TLOU sell well sometimes but the games that gamers spend the most time with are those with attractive gameplay loops; the story just becomes window dressing. Personally I put down TLOU after two or three hours; the story didn't excite me (generic zombie slop, sorry) and the sneak/combat gameplay was too bland to keep me interested. On the other hand, MGS5's story is a half-baked abortion but the gameplay kept me coming back for several hundred hours.
- swombat 3y ago
  The story gets way more deep and interesting as you progress. If you feel like giving it another shot, the remaster also makes it look super-pretty and improved the gameplay somewhat.
- hotdogscout 3y ago
  When I first played TLOU I had that same reaction but as the other comment said it is a lot deeper than it seems. An allegory for all types of love represented by each location.
3y ago

nottorp 3y ago

Well the movie industry did change, but not in the way he predicted? It switched from summer blockbusters to carbon copy series on streaming platforms.

PrimeMcFly 3y ago

The movie industry is going to dwindle in size and power over the next decade. Look at the crappy AI apps that can generate 'movies' available now, look at what unreal engine 5 can do, look at what ChatGPT can do...in 5 - 10 years, we will be able to give a prompt and have photorealistic movies/tv episodes generated, which will satisfy the vast majority of people.

namaria 3y ago
I really don't think private puppet shows, as visually impressive as they could get, would be engaging. The point of a good story is in no small part the surprise and the transformation in world view it is capable of delivering.
- fullshark 3y ago
  Fine it will be hobbyists/moonlighting creators on streaming platforms delivering a heavy dose of 20 second to 30 minute AI generated content. Basically where we are today except it will just get more and more engaging as the tools become more accessible/powerful.
  - namaria 3y ago
    This weird assumption that what amounts to just a competent chatbot will somehow "be good" at everything at some point in the future is just starting to sound like faith based argument to me.
- PrimeMcFly 3y ago
  AI can already write scripts that match bottom of the barrel entertainment like the fast and the furious movies. The resultant content will absolutely be engaging for the majority of the population, and it can absolutely contain surprise and transformation while delivering a world view.
  - namaria 3y ago
    These are very strong and unwarranted convictions. Did you watch never ending seinfeld? I know "the AI will keep getting better". I guess we'll see about that.

tremon 3y ago

vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn’t been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters I'm not sure about this one. More than twenty years later, I still fondly recall characters like Imoen, Minsc, or Aribeth.