4 ms·

At the moment AGI is a skizoid dream, so we are safe.

wredue 3y ago
A not insignificant portion of HN commenters believe AGI is close. This community is so split on this that it’s virtually random as to whether or not you’ll be downvoted for saying that a specialized search engine is not likely to achieve AGI.
- ekianjo 3y ago
  HN commenters believe all kinds of nonsense.
- bbor 3y ago
  Technically it’s a specialized text model, not a search engine. I’m the requisite AGI doomer that you’re talking about, but doubt I’ll convince you there - instead just want you to evaluate these techniques in that view. Because IMO it makes them much more impressive. “A robot that knows everything that humanity knows” is a) not chatgpt, b) not AGI, and c) not anywhere close to a reality.
- cmrdporcupine 3y ago
  5 years ago large parts of this same community would sneer at you and call you a luddite for suggesting that fully-self-driving claims were overly optimistic. People were saying things like trucking was a dead profession within a handful of years, etc. They were wrong as hell, clearly. Point being: Moore's law is for transistors, not just any tech, and not everything in tech gets on an exponential growth/improvement path.
  - SpicyLemonZest 3y ago
    "Wrong as hell" seems like a severe overstatement. Even after the Cruise fiasco, self-driving cars with no human in the driver's seat are commercially available in three major US cities. There were quite a lot of overly optimistic claims about the speed of market penetration, but the technology is real.
    - cmrdporcupine 3y ago
      Commercially available, but not viable. I read an article the other day that speculated Waymo was losing $1000 for every cab ride or something crazy like that. And commercially available, but only in "easy" places with mild climate and easy roads. When I see them effortlessly driving around here in 4" of fresh snow with no visible lane markings and cars sliding all over the place, I'll be impressed. I just got back from Scottsdale, AZ and saw a few Waymo taxis around (crossed the street in front of one), but, like... that's easy... wide, even surfaced roads, no real weather. Barely a pedestrian or cyclist in sight. And, finally, none of this looks anywhere like the predictions from 5, 6, 7 years ago. We're almost a decade on from when I first started hearing people saying things like "no point in becoming a truck driver, that's a dead career now that trucks will be automated" and, yeah... that was wrong as hell.
  - gumballindie 3y ago
    Precisely this and precisely trucks and self driving. This community has a strong tendency for cult following and tunnel vision. Seems like contrarian thinking, the hacker mindset, and as of recently entrepreneurship are not particularly popular anymore. Instead we have people demanding ip theft and the destruction of entire industries just to satisfy a cult leader’s vision. A little disappointing particularly since it damages and otherwise interesting technology such as ai, and it pushes the hundreds of legitimate ml startups away.
- dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
  > A not insignificant portion of HN commenters believe AGI is close. Did any of them mention how to build it?
dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
You say that, but one day one of them is going realise that they can give ChatGPT a fresh cup of really hot tea and ask it for an implementation of AGI.

A not insignificant portion of HN commenters believe AGI is close. This community is so split on this that it’s virtually random as to whether or not you’ll be downvoted for saying that a specialized search engine is not likely to achieve AGI.

ekianjo 3y ago
HN commenters believe all kinds of nonsense.
bbor 3y ago
Technically it’s a specialized text model, not a search engine. I’m the requisite AGI doomer that you’re talking about, but doubt I’ll convince you there - instead just want you to evaluate these techniques in that view. Because IMO it makes them much more impressive. “A robot that knows everything that humanity knows” is a) not chatgpt, b) not AGI, and c) not anywhere close to a reality.
cmrdporcupine 3y ago
5 years ago large parts of this same community would sneer at you and call you a luddite for suggesting that fully-self-driving claims were overly optimistic. People were saying things like trucking was a dead profession within a handful of years, etc. They were wrong as hell, clearly. Point being: Moore's law is for transistors, not just any tech, and not everything in tech gets on an exponential growth/improvement path.
- SpicyLemonZest 3y ago
  "Wrong as hell" seems like a severe overstatement. Even after the Cruise fiasco, self-driving cars with no human in the driver's seat are commercially available in three major US cities. There were quite a lot of overly optimistic claims about the speed of market penetration, but the technology is real.
  - cmrdporcupine 3y ago
    Commercially available, but not viable. I read an article the other day that speculated Waymo was losing $1000 for every cab ride or something crazy like that. And commercially available, but only in "easy" places with mild climate and easy roads. When I see them effortlessly driving around here in 4" of fresh snow with no visible lane markings and cars sliding all over the place, I'll be impressed. I just got back from Scottsdale, AZ and saw a few Waymo taxis around (crossed the street in front of one), but, like... that's easy... wide, even surfaced roads, no real weather. Barely a pedestrian or cyclist in sight. And, finally, none of this looks anywhere like the predictions from 5, 6, 7 years ago. We're almost a decade on from when I first started hearing people saying things like "no point in becoming a truck driver, that's a dead career now that trucks will be automated" and, yeah... that was wrong as hell.
- gumballindie 3y ago
  Precisely this and precisely trucks and self driving. This community has a strong tendency for cult following and tunnel vision. Seems like contrarian thinking, the hacker mindset, and as of recently entrepreneurship are not particularly popular anymore. Instead we have people demanding ip theft and the destruction of entire industries just to satisfy a cult leader’s vision. A little disappointing particularly since it damages and otherwise interesting technology such as ai, and it pushes the hundreds of legitimate ml startups away.
dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
> A not insignificant portion of HN commenters believe AGI is close. Did any of them mention how to build it?

dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago

You say that, but one day one of them is going realise that they can give ChatGPT a fresh cup of really hot tea and ask it for an implementation of AGI.