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Only time will tell, but if this was indeed "just" a coup then it's somewhat likely we're witnessing a variant of the Steve Jobs story all over again. Sam is c
by nilkn 3y ago
Only time will tell, but if this was indeed "just" a coup then it's somewhat likely we're witnessing a variant of the Steve Jobs story all over again.
Sam is clearly one of the top product engineering leaders in the world -- few companies could ever match OpenAI's incredible product delivery over the last few years -- and he's also one of the most connected engineering leaders in the industry. He could likely have $500M-$10B+ lined up by next week to start up a new company and poach much of the talent from OpenAI.
What about OpenAI's long-term prospects? They rely heavily on money to train larger and larger models -- this is why Sam introduced the product focus in the first place. You can't get to AGI without billions and billions of dollars to burn on training and experiments. If the company goes all-in on alignment and safety concerns, they likely won't be able to compete long-term as other firms outcompete them on cash and hence on training. That could lead to the company getting fully acquired and absorbed, likely by Microsoft, or fading into a somewhat sleepy R&D team that doesn't lead the industry.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- mvkel 3y ago[Removed. Unhelpful speculation.]
- late2part 3y agoHow many days a week do you hang out with Sam and Greg and Ilya to know these things?
- mvkel 3y agoI know the dysfunction and ego battles that happen at nonprofits when they outgrow the board. Haven't seen it -not- happen yet, actually. Nonprofits start with $40K in the bank and a board of earnest people who want to help. Sometimes that $40K turns into $40M (or $400M) and people get wacky. As I said, "if."
- zeroonetwothree 3y agoExtremely speculative
- dagmx 3y agoFrankly this reads like idolatry and fan fiction. You’ve concocted an entire dramatization based on not even knowing any of the players involved and just going based off some biased stereotyping of engineers?
- mvkel 3y agoMore like stereotyping nonprofits.
- browningstreet 3y agoAgree with this take. Sam made OpenAI hot, and they’re going to cool, for better or worse. Without revenue it’ll be worse. And surprising Microsoft given their investment size is going to lead to pressures they may not be able to negotiate against. If this pivot is what they needed to do, the drama-version isn’t the smart way to do it. Everyone’s going to be much more excited to see what Sam pulls next and less excited to wait the dev cycles that OpenAI wants to do next.
- iamflimflam1 3y agoIndeed. Throwing your toys out of the pram and causing a whole lot of angst is not going to make anyone keen to work with you.
- huytersd 3y agoSatya should pull off some shenanigans, take control of OpenAI and put Sam and Greg back in control.
- shafyy 3y ago[flagged]
- spaceman_2020 3y agoThe irony is that a money-fuelled war for AI talent is all the more likely to lead to unsafe AI. If OpenAI had remained the dominant leader, it could have very well set the standards for safety. But now if new competitors with equally good funding emerge, they won’t have the luxury of sitting on any breakthrough models.
- tempsy 3y agoI’m still wondering what unsafe AI even looks like in practical terms The only things I can think of is generated pornographic images of minors and revenge images (ex-partners, people you know). That kind of thing. More out there might be an AI based religion/cult.
- iamnotafish2 3y agoUnsafe AI might compromise cybersecurity, or cause economic harm by exploiting markets as agents, or personally exploit people, etc. Honestly none of the harm seems worse than the incredible benefits. I trust humanity can reign it back if we need to. We are very far from AI being so powerful that it cannot be recovered from safely.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- huytersd 3y agoThat’s a very constrained imagination. You could wreak havoc with a truly unconstrained, good enough LLM.
- jjfoooo4 3y agoOpenAI’s biggest issue is that it has no moat. The product is a simple interface to a powerful model, and it seems likely that any lead they have in the power of the model can be quickly overcome should they decrease R&D. The model is extremely simple to integrate and access - unlike something like Uber, where tons of complexity and logistics is hidden behind a simple interface, an easy interface to OpenAI’s model can truly be built in an afternoon. The safety posturing is a red herring to try and get the government to build a moat for them, but with or without Altman it isn’t going to work. The tech is too powerful, and too easy to open source. My guess is that in the long run the best generative AI models are built by government or academia entities, and commercialization happens via open sourcing.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- lancesells 3y ago> OpenAI’s biggest issue is that it has no moat. This just isn't true. They have the users, the customers, Microsoft, the backing, the years ahead of most, and the good press. It's like saying Uber isn't worth anything because they don't own their cars and are just a middleman. Maybe that now changes since they fired the face of the company, and the press and sentiment turns on them.
- dh2022 3y agoUber is worth less than zero. They already are at full capacity (how many cities are there left to expand) and still not profitable.
- graphe 3y agoIt may not be profitable but it's utility is worth way more than zero.
- lancesells 3y agoI don't like Uber but no one is taking them over for a long while. They are not profitable but they continue to raise prices and you'll see it soon. They are doing exactly what everyone predicted by getting everyone using the app and then raising prices that are more expensive than the taxis they replaced.
- yafbum 3y ago> He could likely have $500M-$10B+ lined up by next week to start up a new company and poach much of the talent from OpenAI. Following the Jobs analogy, this could be another NeXT failure story. Teams are made by their players much more than by their leaders; competent leaders are a necessary but absolutely insufficient condition of success, and the likelihood that whatever he starts next reproduces the team conditions that made OpenAI in the first place are pretty slim IMO (while still being much larger than anyone else's).
- yaroslavyar 3y agoWell, I would debate that NeXT OS was a failure as a product, keeping in mind that it is a foundation of all current in macOS and even iOS versions that we have not. But I agree that it was a failure from a business perspective. Although I see it more like Windows phone — too late to market — failure, rather than an out of talented employers failure.
- yafbum 3y agoYes, market conditions and competitor landscape are a big factor too.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]