4 ms·

What are the odds Sam can work the phones this weekend and have $10B lined up by Monday for a new AI company which will take all of the good talent from OpenAI?

by ls612 3y ago

ketzo 3y ago
Honestly? If even a tenth of Sam’s reported connectedness / reality distortion field are true to life… very good odds.
outside1234 3y ago
99% with the 1% being it is actually $20-30B
staticman2 3y ago
Why would the good talent leave? Are they all a "family" and best buddies with Sam?
- ls612 3y ago
  A lot of them have already left this morning. idk for sure why but a good bet is that they are more on board with Sam's vision of pushing forward AI than the safetyist vision.
  - esafak 3y ago
    What fraction?
- thepasswordis 3y ago
  Perhaps they don’t want to work for a board of directors which is openly hostile to the work they’re doing?
  - meepmorp 3y ago
    I don't think wanting to make sure that their technology doesn't cause harm equates to being hostile to the work itself.
    - pixl97 3y ago
      That would seem based on the individuals motivation at the end of the day... It's easy to imagine two archetypes 1) The person motivated to make AGI and make it safe. 2) The person motivated to make AGI at any cost and profit from it. It seems like OpenAI may be pushing for type 1 at the moment, but the typical problem with capitalism is it will commonly fund type 2 businesses. Who 'wins' really breaks down to if there are more type 1 or 2 people and the relative successes of each.
      - anonyfox 3y ago
        Not at OAI or some researcher, but I‘d be in an archetype 3: I‘d do anything I can to make true AGI a reality, without safety concerns or wanting to profit from it.
  - staticman2 3y ago
    The boarded sided with the chief scientist and co-founder of OpenAI in an internal dispute. How does that show hostility to the work OpenAI is doing?
    - YetAnotherNick 3y ago
      Ilya is pushing the unsafe AGI narrrative to stop public progress and make OpenAI more closed and intentionally slow to deliver. There are definitely people who are not sold by this.
  - chongli 3y ago
    Perhaps they didn't like the work they were doing? If they're experts in the field, they may have preferred to continue to work on research. Whereas it sounds like Sam was pushing them to work on products and growth.
- polski-g 3y ago
  Because they want stock options for a for-profit company.
- mattnewton 3y ago
  My guess is that at least some of them are worried about shipping products and making profit, and agreed with the growth faction?
claytonjy 3y ago
I definitely believe he can raise a lot of money quickly, but I'm not sure where he'll get the talent, at least the core modeling talent. That's Ilya's lane, and I get the sense that group are the true believers in the original non-profit mission. But I suspect a lot of the hires from the last year or so, even in the eng side, are all about the money and would follow sama anywhere given what this signals for OpenAIs economic future. I'm just not sure such a company can work without the core research talent.
- x86x87 3y ago
  Lol. There are ambitious people working at openai in Ilya's lane that will jump at the opportunity. Nobody owns any lanes.
  - dh2022 3y ago
    ooh, lanes... the Microsoft internal buzz-word that got out of fashion a couple of years ago is making a comeback outside of Microsoft....
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
fullshark 3y ago
I'm guessing he has verbal commitments already.
- Maxious 3y ago
  > Sequoia, was independently in contact with Microsoft to encourage it to work to restore Altman and Brockman, according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The firm would support Altman whichever option he chose, the source added. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/11/18/openai-investors-scramble-to-reinstate-sam-altman-as-ceo/?sh=7a84804c60da https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/11/18/openai-in...
croes 3y ago
And then? Training data is more restricted now, hardware is hard to get, fine tuning needs time.
- somebodythere 3y ago
  First two problems are easily solved with money
  - croes 3y ago
    Money doesn't magically create hardware, it takes time to produce it
dmitrygr 3y ago
Other than having a big mouth what has HE done? As far as I can find, the actual engineering and development was done NOT by him, while he was parading around telling people they shouldn't WFH, and schmoozing with government officials
somenameforme 3y ago
Ilya Sutskever, the head scientist at OpenAI, is allegedly who organized the 'shuffle.' So you're going to run into some issues expecting the top talent to follow Sam. And would many people want to get in on a new AI development company for big $$$ right now? From my perspective the market is teetering towards oversaturation, there are no moats, zero-interest rates are a thing of the past, and the path to profit is nebulous at best.

What are the odds Sam can work the phones this weekend and have $10B lined up by Monday for a new AI company which will take all of the good talent from OpenAI?

by ls612 3y ago

What are the odds Sam can work the phones this weekend and have $10B lined up by Monday for a new AI company which will take all of the good talent from OpenAI?

ketzo 3y ago

Honestly? If even a tenth of Sam’s reported connectedness / reality distortion field are true to life… very good odds.

outside1234 3y ago

99% with the 1% being it is actually $20-30B

staticman2 3y ago

Why would the good talent leave? Are they all a "family" and best buddies with Sam?

ls612 3y ago
A lot of them have already left this morning. idk for sure why but a good bet is that they are more on board with Sam's vision of pushing forward AI than the safetyist vision.
- esafak 3y ago
  What fraction?
thepasswordis 3y ago
Perhaps they don’t want to work for a board of directors which is openly hostile to the work they’re doing?
- meepmorp 3y ago
  I don't think wanting to make sure that their technology doesn't cause harm equates to being hostile to the work itself.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    That would seem based on the individuals motivation at the end of the day... It's easy to imagine two archetypes 1) The person motivated to make AGI and make it safe. 2) The person motivated to make AGI at any cost and profit from it. It seems like OpenAI may be pushing for type 1 at the moment, but the typical problem with capitalism is it will commonly fund type 2 businesses. Who 'wins' really breaks down to if there are more type 1 or 2 people and the relative successes of each.
    - anonyfox 3y ago
      Not at OAI or some researcher, but I‘d be in an archetype 3: I‘d do anything I can to make true AGI a reality, without safety concerns or wanting to profit from it.
- staticman2 3y ago
  The boarded sided with the chief scientist and co-founder of OpenAI in an internal dispute. How does that show hostility to the work OpenAI is doing?
  - YetAnotherNick 3y ago
    Ilya is pushing the unsafe AGI narrrative to stop public progress and make OpenAI more closed and intentionally slow to deliver. There are definitely people who are not sold by this.
- chongli 3y ago
  Perhaps they didn't like the work they were doing? If they're experts in the field, they may have preferred to continue to work on research. Whereas it sounds like Sam was pushing them to work on products and growth.
polski-g 3y ago
Because they want stock options for a for-profit company.
mattnewton 3y ago
My guess is that at least some of them are worried about shipping products and making profit, and agreed with the growth faction?

claytonjy 3y ago

I definitely believe he can raise a lot of money quickly, but I'm not sure where he'll get the talent, at least the core modeling talent. That's Ilya's lane, and I get the sense that group are the true believers in the original non-profit mission. But I suspect a lot of the hires from the last year or so, even in the eng side, are all about the money and would follow sama anywhere given what this signals for OpenAIs economic future. I'm just not sure such a company can work without the core research talent.

x86x87 3y ago
Lol. There are ambitious people working at openai in Ilya's lane that will jump at the opportunity. Nobody owns any lanes.
- dh2022 3y ago
  ooh, lanes... the Microsoft internal buzz-word that got out of fashion a couple of years ago is making a comeback outside of Microsoft....
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

fullshark 3y ago

I'm guessing he has verbal commitments already.

Maxious 3y ago
> Sequoia, was independently in contact with Microsoft to encourage it to work to restore Altman and Brockman, according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The firm would support Altman whichever option he chose, the source added. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/11/18/openai-investors-scramble-to-reinstate-sam-altman-as-ceo/?sh=7a84804c60da https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/11/18/openai-in...

croes 3y ago

And then? Training data is more restricted now, hardware is hard to get, fine tuning needs time.

somebodythere 3y ago
First two problems are easily solved with money
- croes 3y ago
  Money doesn't magically create hardware, it takes time to produce it

dmitrygr 3y ago

Other than having a big mouth what has HE done? As far as I can find, the actual engineering and development was done NOT by him, while he was parading around telling people they shouldn't WFH, and schmoozing with government officials

somenameforme 3y ago

Ilya Sutskever, the head scientist at OpenAI, is allegedly who organized the 'shuffle.' So you're going to run into some issues expecting the top talent to follow Sam. And would many people want to get in on a new AI development company for big $$$ right now? From my perspective the market is teetering towards oversaturation, there are no moats, zero-interest rates are a thing of the past, and the path to profit is nebulous at best.