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Worth noting is this clause Fifth, the board determines when we've attained AGI. Again, by AGI we mean a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at mo
by kasperni 3y ago
Worth noting is this clause
Fifth, the board determines when we've attained AGI. Again, by AGI we mean a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work. Such a system is excluded from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft, which only apply to pre-AGI technology.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- FirmwareBurner 3y agoSo Microsoft only has access to the "chaff" and not the "beans" of OpenAI?
- ben_w 3y agoFor most of human history, real wealth and power was in the form of real estate (as I understand it, the "real" in "real estate" is no accident, the etymology goes all the way back to proto-indo-european). That only really changed to capital with the industrial age, but even then land was needed to produce food to feed the workforce, and real estate hasn't vanished from the world. Whenever AGI happens — and assuming this isn't a singularity-type change, and assuming that the AI is friendly rather than a paperclip optimiser etc. — the meaning of real power and wealth will change again, even though money (as currently understood) and land will still exist. Russia is the biggest country in the world, but at ~1.7% of global GDP (and ~1/16th of the USA's) it's not even close to being a world-leading economic powerhouse. Post-AGI, I expect that even the company with the highest earnings or market capitalization will be to the dominant {entity related to AGI but not necessarily the AGI itself because it doesn't have to be a person or an agent in its own right for this argument} as Russia is to the US.
- mistrial9 3y agoworse than that -- AI systems can generate content and sell it to other AI run systems. The content could be non-trivial and meet established legal requirements for value, by mass or by integrity. Once the pump is primed, potentially make a whole economy for small groups of people. Second scenario is AI-assist for current technical knowledge work, which non-AI assisted business cannot compete with.. MSFT is already building that platform, it is very well-funded and popular right now. Third, China does all of this, too.. and are overall better and faster at the technical parts. YMMV
- ben_w 3y agoWhy is any of that "worse"? Surely that's the point?
- ethanbond 3y agoAI will do the same thing that every other productivity improvement has in history: increase the price of land. Real estate is still (and will always be) real because not only do you need land to grow food, you need land to do any type of work on, you need land to eat on and to sleep on.
- mistrial9 3y agofalse - abandoned land, towns, whole cities.. are common and easy to find. That means the value of the land and improvements went sharply and drastically down
- pc86 3y agoI can point out dozens of "sharp and drastic" crashes in stock prices, but that doesn't mean investing in the stock market is a bad idea.
- ethanbond 3y agoWhere to start… 1) Abandoned cities are extremely rare throughout all of history. Most medium to large cities outlive the countries in which they were founded. 2) Even if this were the case, it doesn’t actually disprove the claim. All that’s evidence of is that occasionally, some forces can overcome positive pressure on prices. Yes systemic failure can sometimes (very rarely) knock a city out of existence, but this is very obviously extremely rare. Even Detroit is dramatically more expensive than it has ever been. The price of an acre in Wyoming is higher than it’s ever been. 3) That’s still assuming that abandonment is a definite sign of falling land prices, which isn’t true at all. Vacancy results from the inability to produce more value on the land than the land costs. Sometimes this is because the prices rise and sometimes because the cost of production rises, but never because the price of land went down: that would just mean more profit which means more reason to stay.
- mistrial9 3y agook - casual terms got the negative response.. so we define "common" .. You have legitimate points yes... but I can tell you that California has some of the most expensive real estate anywhere, and there are abandoned towns here.. abandoned rail stations, old homes.. all of that.. you can say "oh this statement is not supported" with rebuttal, but the rebuttal has "stock market goes up" built in.. this is not true over long periods of time generally due to war or other disaster. more profit - more reason to stay.. Somehow we are not acknowledging Walmart here. In the USA, small towns functioned on having stores and other services.. sixty years later.. whole towns are dying due to a nearby Walmart, where people drive an hour+ to shop. neither my statement or the rebuttal has all the relevant parts.. under construction. dynamic systems
- ajcp 3y agoThe etymology of the "real" in real estate is very traceable and clear. real: late Middle English (as a legal term meaning ‘relating to things, especially real property’): from Anglo-Norman French, from late Latin realis, from Latin res ‘thing’. An "estate" writ large is many things, including social and economic relationships, contracts, and instruments that are more ideas and behaviors than an actual "thing". Real in the sense of "real estate" means the physical part of an estate; the "things" you can touch. The real in real estate is not denoting what is the actual, *realized* value of the estate, which I think is what you're intimating.
- aragonite 3y agoRight. Real in this sense is opposed to personal. So you have legal distinctions between real action and personal action, in personem and in rem etc. It's tied to the fundamental distinction between a person and a thing, between who and what. What's not "real" in this sense isn't necessarily not "real" in the familiar everyday sense.
- somenameforme 3y agoI'd expect it's more that Microsoft probably shares my perspective - that the current direct and path of technology will never produce AGI, so the distinction is largely irrelevant, and makes the investment sound more societally friendly.
- rational_indian 3y agoIt is only a matter of time before we have true AGI. It's a hardware problem. We don't need to wait for someone to invent a clever algorithm for this. OpenAI knows this. See... - http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huang%27s_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huang%27s_law
- pc86 3y agoIf you're going the argument from authority route you should probably cite sources that don't say "The hypothesis is subject to questions about its validity." in the very first paragraph.
- rational_indian 3y agoEvery hypothesis is subject to questions about its validity. Including Moore's law but people still use it.
- pc86 3y agoSure, so is gravity. The Wikipedia page on gravity doesn't include such a disclaimer.
- notahacker 3y agoAnd frankly even if they did produce something the board deemed to be AGI, I don't imagine the integration of LLMs and generative art into Microsoft products beforehand wouldn't have been worth the investment
- 3y ago
- amelius 3y agoDoes that definition hold if the power use of the system is a multiple of what a human would use for the same task?
- rational_indian 3y agoPower used is important but so is speed. For example right now I am sure the GPT cluster consumes power in the order of megawatts but you have to remember it serves thousands of users simultaneously.
- amelius 3y agoYes, so energy use per task. I thought that was clear.
- rational_indian 3y agoOptimizing energy use per task at will be a waste of time at this point of time, this will come later. The metric used by OpenAI seems to be more useful right now.
- jorvi 3y ago> by AGI we mean a highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work What a sad testament to the current zeitgeist that economically viable is our bar for AGI. Van Gogh was not “economically valuable” for the span of his life.
- jprete 3y agoThat phrasing is the right one, because the economic value is the part that will involuntarily put people out of work and cause mass societal disruption.
- gardenhedge 3y agoThe funny thing is that OpenAI is not the only player. If they achieve AGI, they won't be the only ones.
- layer8 3y agoThey are not aiming at outperforming Van Gogh.
- busyant 3y ago> outperforms humans at most economically valuable work "most" but not all economically valuable work. ChatGPT (or what follows) can't swing a hammer and it can't apply spackle. Maybe I should start looking into the trades.
- lucasyvas 3y agoIt's not off the cards. A lot of what we produce is frankly useless from a core value perspective compared to the outputs of physical labor. If it doesn't produce or dramatically aid in the production of Food, Water, Shelter, Energy, or Transport... it will never be as intrinsically valuable. The vast majority of work in those categories requires irreplaceable physical labor.
- jstummbillig 3y agoWe need to interface with the world, but the minimum building blocks required to do that for all industries with just software are going to get smaller and smaller. When you have a device that can manipulate atoms as computers can manipulate bits, you will be able to do everything with software. We are probably not going to write it, but I assume as long as we are in control, we are going to drive the design. Software is most certainly the end game.
- RandomLensman 3y agoAre we back to some of the magic requiring ideas of the nanotechnology hype?
- Kapura 3y agoExtremely weird, or maybe not weird at all, that you don't include art of any form in your list of intrinsically valuable things.
- lucasyvas 3y agoArt is something you can survive without, but can't practically live without - I did omit it on purpose because expression seems hard to categorize - it's what we live for, but not how we live.