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Tinfoil? Hat time. Everyone from Greg to Sam to Ilya keep hanging on "AGI for the benefit of humanity". According to OpenAI's constitution: AGI is explicitly c

Tinfoil? Hat time. Everyone from Greg to Sam to Ilya keep hanging on "AGI for the benefit of humanity". According to OpenAI's constitution: AGI is explicitly carved out of all commercial and IP licensing agreements, including the ones with Microsoft. Nuclear. Well apparently, the board decides what will be AGI. But 3 (everyone now left except ilya) of those board members don't even work at Open AI and are only privy to what the rest share. Yesterday, this is what Altman said, "On a personal note, like four times now in the history of OpenAI, the most recent time was just in the last couple of weeks, I’ve gotten to be in the room when we pushed the veil of ignorance back" He goes on to say, "By next year, the model capabilities will take such a leap forward that No one would have expected" Now keep in mind, while we can all speculate on just how much the next iteration will be better, the idea that they could be sitting on something noticeably better is not far fetched at all. Open AI sat on GPT-4 for 8 months before announcing it to the public. https://www.youtube.com/live/ZFFvqRemDv8?si=yUnLvk1gHNocxUVu https://www.youtube.com/live/ZFFvqRemDv8?si=yUnLvk1gHNocxUVu 2 days ago, Sam is asked about what's left for AGI. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NjpNG0CJRMM https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NjpNG0CJRMM He says they can push Language Models much farther but that there are more breakthroughs required. But here's where it gets weird. He immediately starts talking about Super Intelligence and "discovering new physics" as the bar. He says, "If it can't discover new physics, I don't think it's a super intelligence". Nobody asked you about this Sam.. In No prior podcast 2 weeks ago with Ilya, he says Transformers can obviously get us to AGI. https://twitter.com/burny_tech/status/1725578088392573038 https://twitter.com/burny_tech/status/1725578088392573038 To Ilya, they built AGI internally, and Altman wanted to release/monetize it early and tried to undersell it as being far away from AGI to the rest of the board. Ilya considers it AGI, or something extremely close to it, and deserving of far more caution, and so decided to convince the board that Altman was underselling the capabilities of their newer models and was risking a premature release of AGI. If true, then it could be seen as Altman lying about something that is foundational to their mission (which is to safely and responsibly release AGI out into the world) and subsequently fired him. Characterizing Dev Day as "too far" makes more sense in this scenario. Ultimately, the only reason SOTA LLM Agents aren't particularly dangerous is competence. If you suddenly bumped the latter up while laying the grounds for the former..

tomohelix 3y ago
I am pretty positive on AI and LLMs and all this stuff. But even so I really doubt OAI could have made something so much better than GPT to the point that it worth sacking its CEO in such a manner. Sam has always been a salesman, that is true and the board knows it. It would take much more than just a disagreement on the value and urgency of a deal to get rid of him. I think it has to be active sabotage and some kind of business maneuver that basically kill the company as it is right now while not telling the board about it.
- grfn 3y ago
  It does not mean that it is objectively many times better than GPT. It can be a disagreement of interpretation, Ilya and co strongly believing that it is not safe to release, while Sam thinking everything is fine. The capabilities themselves are not very relevant.
  - woeirua 3y ago
    It’s still just extremely hard to see sacking your CEO over this.
- deleted 3y ago
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windowshopping 3y ago
Anytime I hear someone even hypothesizing with a tin foil hat that some company has developed AGI today in 2023, I hear it the same way I hear someone speculating about UFOs. It's so absurd that all I can do is shake my head and look around the room hoping to make eye contact with someone sane who is wearing the same expression of raised eyebrows that I am. I could write an essay on why the existence of AGI in 2023 is a comical prospect, but it just seems to be a given to me... It isn't worth the effort because if someone can't see that for themselves already, no amount of explanation from me is going to change their mind. But in one sentence, try asking ChatGPT to reverse a string of 20+ digits, like 473936482738338373926. It can't do it. It's a super trivial task, but it can't do it. Because it doesn't really understand anything. It's just an incredibly advanced Markov chain. It isn't a mind. It can't reason. They are no closer to AGI than we were 10 years ago. Chatgpt's text generation capabilities have fooled people into thinking that OpenAI has made substantial progress on creating a reasoning consciousness. But it hasn't. It hasn't at all. And it's so easy to realize that if you interact with the thing.

tomohelix 3y ago

I am pretty positive on AI and LLMs and all this stuff. But even so I really doubt OAI could have made something so much better than GPT to the point that it worth sacking its CEO in such a manner. Sam has always been a salesman, that is true and the board knows it. It would take much more than just a disagreement on the value and urgency of a deal to get rid of him. I think it has to be active sabotage and some kind of business maneuver that basically kill the company as it is right now while not telling the board about it.

grfn 3y ago
It does not mean that it is objectively many times better than GPT. It can be a disagreement of interpretation, Ilya and co strongly believing that it is not safe to release, while Sam thinking everything is fine. The capabilities themselves are not very relevant.
- woeirua 3y ago
  It’s still just extremely hard to see sacking your CEO over this.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

windowshopping 3y ago

Anytime I hear someone even hypothesizing with a tin foil hat that some company has developed AGI today in 2023, I hear it the same way I hear someone speculating about UFOs. It's so absurd that all I can do is shake my head and look around the room hoping to make eye contact with someone sane who is wearing the same expression of raised eyebrows that I am. I could write an essay on why the existence of AGI in 2023 is a comical prospect, but it just seems to be a given to me... It isn't worth the effort because if someone can't see that for themselves already, no amount of explanation from me is going to change their mind. But in one sentence, try asking ChatGPT to reverse a string of 20+ digits, like 473936482738338373926. It can't do it. It's a super trivial task, but it can't do it. Because it doesn't really understand anything. It's just an incredibly advanced Markov chain. It isn't a mind. It can't reason. They are no closer to AGI than we were 10 years ago. Chatgpt's text generation capabilities have fooled people into thinking that OpenAI has made substantial progress on creating a reasoning consciousness. But it hasn't. It hasn't at all. And it's so easy to realize that if you interact with the thing.