5 ms·

My biggest question is: If Sam Altman starts a new company by next month, and him and Greg Brockman know all details of how GPT4/5 works, then what what will th

My biggest question is: If Sam Altman starts a new company by next month, and him and Greg Brockman know all details of how GPT4/5 works, then what what will this mean for OpenAI's dominance and lead?

cj 3y ago
In other words, if SamA did it once, would $50 billion in funding enable him do it a 2nd time?
- blovescoffee 3y ago
  He's not going to get $50 billion in funding
- manyoso 3y ago
  Or maybe he was a "manager" who took the credit
- strikelaserclaw 3y ago
  Well to be considered a genius in the ranks of Steve Jobs, you need to succeed more than once. If he can't do it a second time, then he'd be known as the guy who fails upward.
  - cocacola1 3y ago
    Well, to be considered a genius like Steve jobs, you eventually need to return to the company you left – or were ousted from – when it's on the precipice of defeat and then proceed to turn it around.
capableweb 3y ago
Is OpenAI's current success attributed more to its excellent business and startup management, or does it stem from its superior technology and research that surpasses what others have developed?
- MVissers 3y ago
  Both IMO. The first leads to attractong world-class talent that can do the second. Until you go off the rails and the second kicks you out it seems.
  - capableweb 3y ago
    You don't think already starting with world-class talent (Sutskever, Karpathy, Zaremba and more being part of the founding team) lead to OpenAI being able to get more world-class talent, rather than world-class talent joining because of Altman?
    - hello_moto 3y ago
      Yeah. I don't care who Altman is cause he ain't the technical leader from a researcher perspective. Altman is a CEO golden boy techbros.
gkanai 3y ago
Even if sama and gdb raised $10B by early 2024, all of the GPU production capacity is already allocated years out. They'd have to buy some other company's GPUs at insane markups. And that's only on the hardware side.
- andrewstuart 3y ago
  Jensen will take Sam's calls in a heartbeat and personally ensure he has what he needs.
  - reactordev 3y ago
    Exactly. Entire city blocks will be cleared for Sam. Anything he needs. Just give him a road.
    - manyoso 3y ago
      Pure hero worship based on nothing. Dude got himself fired and the board accused him of lying.
      - reactordev 3y ago
        I agree however he'll have no problem finding another vehicle.
  - sbrother 3y ago
    As will Lisa Su. This is going to be quite a ride.
  - threestar3 3y ago
    He can't. That capacity is sold. He is not going to get his company sued for a breach of contract for a personal favor.
- icelancer 3y ago
  Jensen/CoreWeave/Lambda/etc will ensure sama gets what he needs.
oivey 3y ago
Wasn’t he more of a business guy while Ilya was the engineer? I really doubt a random VC guy is going to really know much about the specific, crucial details the engineering team knows.
- naremu 3y ago
  You know, I'm sure Sam Altman is a really smart guy for real. But to be honest the impression I've gathered is that he's largely a darling to big ycombinator names which lead him quite rapidly dick first into the position he's found himself in today, which is a self proclaimed prepper who starts new crypto coins post-dogecoin even, talking about how AI that aren't his AI should be regulated by the government, and making vague analogies about his AI being "in the sky" while he takes a formerly announced to be non-profit goal into a for-profit LLC that overtly reminds everyone at every turn how it takes no liability, do not sue. I'm not really sure to be surprised, or entirely unsurprised. I mean, he probably knows more code than Steve Jobs? But I suppose GPT probably knows more code than he does. Maybe he really is using the GeniePT as his guide throughout life on the side.
  - strikelaserclaw 3y ago
    Apparently Sam's idol growing up was Steve Jobs so this checks out.
  - oivey 3y ago
    I’m sure he’s not a dumb guy, just disposable relative to OpenAI’s engineering team. I doubt he’s a Jobs-like, indispensable visionary, either.
summerlight 3y ago
I don't think that specific knowledge means that much. The landscape is changing in a crazily fast pace. 3~4 years ago, Google was way ahead in terms of LLM but has become an underdog after bleeding talents thereafter. It's even worse for that hypothetical new company. It needs at least several months to implement GPT-4 like models and by that time Sam will lose most of his advantages at that moment. And we don't know whether the new company will have enough pool of world class talents to push the technology competitive. To win the competition again, Sam would need more than just some internal knowledge about GPT-4 or whatever models.
anon291 3y ago
We all know how GPT4/5 work essentially. You can easily run a GPT capable model with a few GPUs in the cloud. The secret sauce is the training data, that openAI owns.
ryanSrich 3y ago
I think Sam and Greg could build something similar to what ChatGPT is today, and maybe even get close to GPT-4, but going beyond that seems like a stretch. Ilya is really the one that’s needed, and clearly he does not see eye to eye with Sam. Another world-class AI researcher at the level of Ilya would have to step in, and I’m not even sure that person exists.
- slekker 3y ago
  I think Karpathy could qualify
dragonwriter 3y ago
> If Sam Altman starts a new company by next month, and him and Greg Brockman know all details of how GPT4/5 works, then what what will this mean for OpenAI's dominance and lead? Well, if two top level officers dismissed from top posts at OpenAI go and take OpenAI's confidential internal product information and use it to try and start a new, directly competing, company, it means that OpenAI's lawyers are going to be busy, and the appropriate US Attorney's office might not be too far behind.

cj 3y ago

In other words, if SamA did it once, would $50 billion in funding enable him do it a 2nd time?

blovescoffee 3y ago
He's not going to get $50 billion in funding
manyoso 3y ago
Or maybe he was a "manager" who took the credit
strikelaserclaw 3y ago
Well to be considered a genius in the ranks of Steve Jobs, you need to succeed more than once. If he can't do it a second time, then he'd be known as the guy who fails upward.
- cocacola1 3y ago
  Well, to be considered a genius like Steve jobs, you eventually need to return to the company you left – or were ousted from – when it's on the precipice of defeat and then proceed to turn it around.

capableweb 3y ago

Is OpenAI's current success attributed more to its excellent business and startup management, or does it stem from its superior technology and research that surpasses what others have developed?

MVissers 3y ago
Both IMO. The first leads to attractong world-class talent that can do the second. Until you go off the rails and the second kicks you out it seems.
- capableweb 3y ago
  You don't think already starting with world-class talent (Sutskever, Karpathy, Zaremba and more being part of the founding team) lead to OpenAI being able to get more world-class talent, rather than world-class talent joining because of Altman?
  - hello_moto 3y ago
    Yeah. I don't care who Altman is cause he ain't the technical leader from a researcher perspective. Altman is a CEO golden boy techbros.

gkanai 3y ago

Even if sama and gdb raised $10B by early 2024, all of the GPU production capacity is already allocated years out. They'd have to buy some other company's GPUs at insane markups. And that's only on the hardware side.

andrewstuart 3y ago
Jensen will take Sam's calls in a heartbeat and personally ensure he has what he needs.
- reactordev 3y ago
  Exactly. Entire city blocks will be cleared for Sam. Anything he needs. Just give him a road.
  - manyoso 3y ago
    Pure hero worship based on nothing. Dude got himself fired and the board accused him of lying.
    - reactordev 3y ago
      I agree however he'll have no problem finding another vehicle.
- sbrother 3y ago
  As will Lisa Su. This is going to be quite a ride.
- threestar3 3y ago
  He can't. That capacity is sold. He is not going to get his company sued for a breach of contract for a personal favor.
icelancer 3y ago
Jensen/CoreWeave/Lambda/etc will ensure sama gets what he needs.

oivey 3y ago

Wasn’t he more of a business guy while Ilya was the engineer? I really doubt a random VC guy is going to really know much about the specific, crucial details the engineering team knows.

naremu 3y ago
You know, I'm sure Sam Altman is a really smart guy for real. But to be honest the impression I've gathered is that he's largely a darling to big ycombinator names which lead him quite rapidly dick first into the position he's found himself in today, which is a self proclaimed prepper who starts new crypto coins post-dogecoin even, talking about how AI that aren't his AI should be regulated by the government, and making vague analogies about his AI being "in the sky" while he takes a formerly announced to be non-profit goal into a for-profit LLC that overtly reminds everyone at every turn how it takes no liability, do not sue. I'm not really sure to be surprised, or entirely unsurprised. I mean, he probably knows more code than Steve Jobs? But I suppose GPT probably knows more code than he does. Maybe he really is using the GeniePT as his guide throughout life on the side.
- strikelaserclaw 3y ago
  Apparently Sam's idol growing up was Steve Jobs so this checks out.
- oivey 3y ago
  I’m sure he’s not a dumb guy, just disposable relative to OpenAI’s engineering team. I doubt he’s a Jobs-like, indispensable visionary, either.

summerlight 3y ago

I don't think that specific knowledge means that much. The landscape is changing in a crazily fast pace. 3~4 years ago, Google was way ahead in terms of LLM but has become an underdog after bleeding talents thereafter. It's even worse for that hypothetical new company. It needs at least several months to implement GPT-4 like models and by that time Sam will lose most of his advantages at that moment. And we don't know whether the new company will have enough pool of world class talents to push the technology competitive. To win the competition again, Sam would need more than just some internal knowledge about GPT-4 or whatever models.

anon291 3y ago

We all know how GPT4/5 work essentially. You can easily run a GPT capable model with a few GPUs in the cloud. The secret sauce is the training data, that openAI owns.

ryanSrich 3y ago

I think Sam and Greg could build something similar to what ChatGPT is today, and maybe even get close to GPT-4, but going beyond that seems like a stretch. Ilya is really the one that’s needed, and clearly he does not see eye to eye with Sam. Another world-class AI researcher at the level of Ilya would have to step in, and I’m not even sure that person exists.

slekker 3y ago
I think Karpathy could qualify

dragonwriter 3y ago

> If Sam Altman starts a new company by next month, and him and Greg Brockman know all details of how GPT4/5 works, then what what will this mean for OpenAI's dominance and lead? Well, if two top level officers dismissed from top posts at OpenAI go and take OpenAI's confidential internal product information and use it to try and start a new, directly competing, company, it means that OpenAI's lawyers are going to be busy, and the appropriate US Attorney's office might not be too far behind.